NY-11 Special Election Thread

[Panda Express]

Cuomo should let the seat sit empty for a year. Punish the district for their stupidity.

[Suburbia]

The seat is probably Leans R.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

The question is if Donovan runs, will the type of voter backlash from the African-American community in Staten Island from the Garner Case cost him the race?

Donovan wasn't going to get AA votes in the first place, and the odds are the backlash from people angry about the Garner case will drive up votes from the blue-collar white/police base in the district. It'll be a wash.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Looks like he'll have to resign or retire.

[SWE]

Looks like he'll have to resign or retire.

He did last night

[The_Doctor]

It looks like, given de Blasio's relationship with Staten Island, this race could be "Republican favored" to start with. Staten Island seems to have voted Grimm as a rebuke of de Blasio, among other things (the Democratic candidate was, well, incompetent).

[RogueBeaver]

Donovan will be the Pub candidate.

[The_Doctor]

Donovan will be the Pub candidate.

I don't understand why selecting the DA that tried to secure a conviction for the police officers involved in the Garner case is a wise choice for Staten Island?

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

Donovan will be the Pub candidate.

I don't understand why selecting the DA that tried to secure a conviction for the police officers involved in the Garner case is a wise choice for Staten Island?

Actually the DA deliberately tried to protect the cop who killed garner from being indicted with his smoke and mirrors Grand Jury which was not even presented with all possible charges.

A District Attorney indicting a police officer is bad news politically and financially for the DA. There's a reason the PBA and police unions contribute a LOT of money to a LOT of campaigns, and Dan Donovan has certainly enjoyed big financial gifts from the PBA in each of his campaigns- and the PBA will never admit to ANY wrongdoing by a police officer even if it is caught on video.

Donovan is probably still the strongest candidate the Republicans have. The white Republican South Shore of Staten Island mostly agrees with the Garner verdict, especially since the PBA spun any criticism of it into being "anti-NYPD" and now it's all wrapped up with the hated Al Sharpton and Bill de Blasio.

I think the key to winning this race against Donovan is to use the anger over the Garner verdict to motivate black and Hispanic voters on the North Shore to actually turn out in a special election when they normally stay home in mid-terms and special elections. Barack Obama actually won Staten Island in 2012, the minority population has increased a bit since, so turning out black and Hispanic voters in large enough numbers could be enough to make up the likely deficit among white voters against Donovan.

[The_Doctor]

Donovan will be the Pub candidate.

I don't understand why selecting the DA that tried to secure a conviction for the police officers involved in the Garner case is a wise choice for Staten Island?

Actually the DA deliberately tried to protect the cop who killed garner from being indicted with his smoke and mirrors Grand Jury which was not even presented with all possible charges.

A District Attorney indicting a police officer is bad news politically and financially for the DA. There's a reason the PBA and police unions contribute a LOT of money to a LOT of campaigns, and Dan Donovan has certainly enjoyed big financial gifts from the PBA in each of his campaigns- and the PBA will never admit to ANY wrongdoing by a police officer even if it is caught on video.

Donovan is probably still the strongest candidate the Republicans have. The white Republican South Shore of Staten Island mostly agrees with the Garner verdict, especially since the PBA spun any criticism of it into being "anti-NYPD" and now it's all wrapped up with the hated Al Sharpton and Bill de Blasio.

I think the key to winning this race against Donovan is to use the anger over the Garner verdict to motivate black and Hispanic voters on the North Shore to actually turn out in a special election when they normally stay home in mid-terms and special elections. Barack Obama actually won Staten Island in 2012, the minority population has increased a bit since, so turning out black and Hispanic voters in large enough numbers could be enough to make up the likely deficit among white voters against Donovan.

So basically, what you're saying, Donovan is the best Republican we can field here, given the moment, and that he would probably hold Staten Island over this issue. I would have preferred to run the younger Greek lady that was here, but Donovan now makes much more sense as a candidate to me.

(Also we didn't seriously compete in New York in 2012 or 2008. A serious Republican effort might skew the results a little right wards).

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Donovan will be the Pub candidate.

Is Malliotakis not running?  And if they both run, wouldn't there have to be a primary?

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Donovan will be the Pub candidate.

Is Malliotakis not running?  And if they both run, wouldn't there have to be a primary?

According to NY law, the county committees pick the nominees for specials.

[free my dawg]

Donovan will be the Pub candidate.

Is Malliotakis not running?  And if they both run, wouldn't there have to be a primary?

Only in my dreams. Malliotakis sounds much more preferable than this bastard.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

Donovan will be the Pub candidate.

I don't understand why selecting the DA that tried to secure a conviction for the police officers involved in the Garner case is a wise choice for Staten Island?

Actually the DA deliberately tried to protect the cop who killed garner from being indicted with his smoke and mirrors Grand Jury which was not even presented with all possible charges.

A District Attorney indicting a police officer is bad news politically and financially for the DA. There's a reason the PBA and police unions contribute a LOT of money to a LOT of campaigns, and Dan Donovan has certainly enjoyed big financial gifts from the PBA in each of his campaigns- and the PBA will never admit to ANY wrongdoing by a police officer even if it is caught on video.

Donovan is probably still the strongest candidate the Republicans have. The white Republican South Shore of Staten Island mostly agrees with the Garner verdict, especially since the PBA spun any criticism of it into being "anti-NYPD" and now it's all wrapped up with the hated Al Sharpton and Bill de Blasio.

I think the key to winning this race against Donovan is to use the anger over the Garner verdict to motivate black and Hispanic voters on the North Shore to actually turn out in a special election when they normally stay home in mid-terms and special elections. Barack Obama actually won Staten Island in 2012, the minority population has increased a bit since, so turning out black and Hispanic voters in large enough numbers could be enough to make up the likely deficit among white voters against Donovan.

So basically, what you're saying, Donovan is the best Republican we can field here, given the moment, and that he would probably hold Staten Island over this issue. I would have preferred to run the younger Greek lady that was here, but Donovan now makes much more sense as a candidate to me.

(Also we didn't seriously compete in New York in 2012 or 2008. A serious Republican effort might skew the results a little right wards).

Nicole Malliotakis would be the easiest to beat. She is a moron with zero legislative accomplishments. She reads the talking points her staff prepare for her and then is rushed away from the podium because she doesn't really have a clue about any issues affecting Staten Island. Her only skills are getting photo ops and claiming credit for things the Assembly accomplishes even when she voted against them. Nicole wants to run for this seat badly, Democrats want her to run for this seat badly, but the Republican establishment knows she would be a terrible candidate.

Donovan is the strongest candidate but he is not invincible, especially after the Garner verdict. Overall the Garner verdict hurts Donovan, because the people who agree with it don't really care all that much about Garner to begin with and it won't factor into their votes, whereas those who are against the Garner verdict (black and Hispanic voters) are very much fired up about the Garner verdict and nominating Donovan might lead to much higher black and Hispanic turnout for a special election than would normally be expected. Nobody really likes the Garner situation. The only people cheering the outcome of the Garner verdict are racists, who are safe Republican voters anyway.

Also Donovan hasn't run in a competitive race in years and may have gotten a little rusty when it comes to running a campaign. Who knows how effective he really would be on the campaign trail.

[Mister Mets]

Still can't believe this guy was reelected.

Democrats picked an incompetent opponent.

[Mister Mets]

Donovan will be the Pub candidate.

I don't understand why selecting the DA that tried to secure a conviction for the police officers involved in the Garner case is a wise choice for Staten Island?

He has won several elections in Staten Island in the past. I am unaware of the cops being upset at him.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

Still can't believe this guy was reelected.

Democrats picked an incompetent opponent.

That's because national Democrats were running the show, and they don't understand the district. All they saw was that Domenic Recchia had raised a lot of money because he spent two years doing nothing but raising money for this congressional campaign after leaving the city council, which boxed out stronger opponents from Staten Island who could have demolished Grimm once those indictments were unsealed and the balcony threats became a national punchline. Running a Brooklynite put the Democrats at immediate disadvantage considering NY-11 is ALL of Staten Island and just a few south Brooklyn neighborhoods, and the campaign was not run to fit Staten Island at all. Staten Island gets blanketed with lawn signs every election season but the Recchia campaign was against signs. You could get a sign if you requested and it might show up in a week or two...as opposed to nearly every other campaign on Staten Island in which candidates aggressively pursue getting signs up on every inch of the island. The Recchia campaign didn't listen to Staten Islanders, they said they have some grand strategy from the DCCC that will win this race- completely ignoring the dynamics of the district. And then there was Wreckia himself, who came off as a buffoon clearly not ready for primetime.

Both parties screwed over the district and the state, which will have to pay for the special election, though at least this gives an opportunity for fresh candidates (and a competent Staten Island Democratic nominee who can win and flip the district).

[Tender Branson]

Does that mean Grimm will be sworn in on Saturday and then resigns on Monday ?

LOL.

Looks like the 114th Congress will actually convene on Tuesday for the first time and not today like Wikipedia says.

Which means Grimm's resignation will still be part of the 113th and not 114th.

[Indy Texas]

An interesting note: since the start of the Obama Administration, there have been 4 special elections in New York state: all 4 have been within single-digits, and 3 have resulted in party switches. Of those 4, 2 have seen notable third-party performances, including one instance where a third-party candidate came within 3% of winning. What a record of exciting elections that this is about to continue.

Since the mid-2000s, New York, particularly Upstate and Long Island, has become an interesting bellwether as far as congressional races are concerned.

In 2006 and 2008, you had a lot of moderate Republicans retire or get defeated by Democrats, many of whom in turn lost in 2010. Then Hayworth/Buerkle/etc got defeated in 2012 and there was turnover yet again in 2014. Add in the various special elections that keep happening around there and it's a giant revolving door.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

Donovan will be the Pub candidate.

I don't understand why selecting the DA that tried to secure a conviction for the police officers involved in the Garner case is a wise choice for Staten Island?

Actually the DA deliberately tried to protect the cop who killed garner from being indicted with his smoke and mirrors Grand Jury which was not even presented with all possible charges.

A District Attorney indicting a police officer is bad news politically and financially for the DA. There's a reason the PBA and police unions contribute a LOT of money to a LOT of campaigns, and Dan Donovan has certainly enjoyed big financial gifts from the PBA in each of his campaigns- and the PBA will never admit to ANY wrongdoing by a police officer even if it is caught on video.

Donovan is probably still the strongest candidate the Republicans have. The white Republican South Shore of Staten Island mostly agrees with the Garner verdict, especially since the PBA spun any criticism of it into being "anti-NYPD" and now it's all wrapped up with the hated Al Sharpton and Bill de Blasio.

I think the key to winning this race against Donovan is to use the anger over the Garner verdict to motivate black and Hispanic voters on the North Shore to actually turn out in a special election when they normally stay home in mid-terms and special elections. Barack Obama actually won Staten Island in 2012, the minority population has increased a bit since, so turning out black and Hispanic voters in large enough numbers could be enough to make up the likely deficit among white voters against Donovan.

So basically, what you're saying, Donovan is the best Republican we can field here, given the moment, and that he would probably hold Staten Island over this issue. I would have preferred to run the younger Greek lady that was here, but Donovan now makes much more sense as a candidate to me.

(Also we didn't seriously compete in New York in 2012 or 2008. A serious Republican effort might skew the results a little right wards).

Democrats didn't seriously compete in 2012 or 2008 either. In 2008 the Republicans imploded when their popular incumbent was caught in a DWI which then exposed him as an adulterer with a second family, their first chosen replacement died, and they ended up nominating a has-been South Shore assemblyman who had moved years ago, combined with the strong Democratic environment Democrat Michael McMahon basically won by default- even as John McCain still narrowly won Staten Island.

In 2012, Grimm was re-elected 52-47 against a no-name, no-funding sacrificial lamb candidate who had just moved back to Staten Island from California. Had the Democrats nominated a stronger well-known candidate, at that time McMahon again or Assemblyman Michael Cusick, and actually contested the race, Grimm could have been taken out in 2012, especially since Barack Obama won Staten Island that year.

The fact that 20-count indictment, throw you off a f'in balcony 2014 Grimm managed to win 55-42 shows just how awful Wreckia was as a candidate. I would argue the Democrats didn't seriously compete in 2014 by nominating someone who was clearly a weak joke candidate and an awful choice for this race. A Sarah Palin from Brooklyn- except a fat man version without the sex appeal vote. (Grimm definitely won the sex appeal vote against Recchia). The results would have been reversed had the Democrats run a competent candidate.

[Libertarian Socialist Dem]

Unfortunately any Republican would probably still win. If Grimm won Staten Island any Republican would. Most other New Yorkers hate Staten Island lol.

[Türkisblau]

Cuomo should let the seat sit empty for a year. Punish the district for their stupidity.

The Democrats should also be punished for nominating Recchia.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

Unfortunately any Republican would probably still win. If Grimm won Staten Island any Republican would. Most other New Yorkers hate Staten Island lol.

Not really, Grimm won mostly because people were voting against Recchia and the DCCC is inept and should have let local Democrats choose the candidate and the strategy rather than nominate a dunce and fail to adapt strategically to the uniqueness of NY-11. Have you actually seen any of the clips of Recchia?

[NewYorkExpress]

It's Lean R to start, but Donovan isn't unbeatable. A Democrat like Debi Rose, Kenneth Mitchell (Both of whom represent/ed the North Shore of Staten Island in the New York City Council), Michael Nelson (Who Represented Midwood, Sheepshead Bay and Brighton Beach in the New York City Council), Matthew Titone and Michael Cusick (both of whom represent Staten Island in the State Assembly) could win, with some luck (and De Blasio staying away)

I just can't help but wonder if Republicans would be better off running Susan Molinari now, and Donovan in 2016, should Molinari lose.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

Cuomo should let the seat sit empty for a year. Punish the district for their stupidity.

The Democrats should also be punished for nominating Recchia.

DCCC forced Domenic Recchia upon us in this race based solely on the fact that he had raised a lot of money since he had been doing nothing but raising money to run for this seat for two years since leaving the City Council. Every local Democratic officeholder on Staten Island said nominating someone from Brooklyn would put us at immediate disadvantage and cripple us in a winnable race, and that was before Recchia revealed what a dumb buffoon he is. Grimm ran a strong well-funded campaign actually adapted to the strategic dynamics of Staten Island and turned out Republicans while Democrats, who outnumber Republicans on Staten Island, stayed home due to being unmotivated to fill in the bubble for Domenic Recchia.