Who's next in line to get virginianized?
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  Who's next in line to get virginianized?
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Poll
Question: Who's next in line to get virginianized?
#1
Georgia
 
#2
North Carolina
 
#3
Alaska
 
#4
Arizona
 
#5
Colorado
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 59

Author Topic: Who's next in line to get virginianized?  (Read 4214 times)
Oregreen
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« on: December 20, 2014, 07:00:39 PM »

Which state will be virginianized next (Which previously Republican state will be turning Democratic soon, as happened with Virginia)?
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IceSpear
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« Reply #1 on: December 20, 2014, 07:02:23 PM »

The one right below it.
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BaconBacon96
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« Reply #2 on: December 20, 2014, 07:11:40 PM »

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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #3 on: December 20, 2014, 09:49:39 PM »

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AelroseB
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« Reply #4 on: December 21, 2014, 02:28:59 PM »

The State of Jesse Helms.
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GLPman
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« Reply #5 on: December 21, 2014, 02:38:15 PM »

Definitely North Carolina
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #6 on: December 21, 2014, 03:50:25 PM »

There's really not a plausible way its not North Carolina. Right now its Lean R, though that probably won't be the case in 2016 and on.
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Vega
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« Reply #7 on: December 21, 2014, 03:52:32 PM »

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Sic Semper Fascistis
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« Reply #8 on: December 21, 2014, 05:15:54 PM »

^^

Colorado is already Lean-D.
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Indy Texas
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« Reply #9 on: December 21, 2014, 06:04:19 PM »


Republicans still control one legislative chamber, most of its congressional districts, a US Senate seat and a couple of statewide offices.
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Obama-Biden Democrat
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« Reply #10 on: December 21, 2014, 06:29:58 PM »


Colorado worries me with Hillary as the nominee. She is not a good fit for the state.
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Sol
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« Reply #11 on: December 21, 2014, 07:32:59 PM »

Carolina Utara, duh.
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Sic Semper Fascistis
Antonio V
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« Reply #12 on: December 22, 2014, 05:03:59 AM »


Republicans control both houses and a large majority of CDs in Virginia.
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« Reply #13 on: December 22, 2014, 05:38:09 AM »


Republicans control both houses and a large majority of CDs in Virginia.

How much of that is gerrymandering, though? After all, even the NY Senate is GOP thanks to gerrymandering.
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DS0816
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« Reply #14 on: December 24, 2014, 04:15:30 PM »

Re: Who's next in line to get virginianized?

North Carolina.

Dwight Eisenhower. Bill Clinton. Barack Obama.

They won somewhere around 11 to 15 percent of the electoral-vote scores from the eleven states of the Old Confederacy.

Lyndon Johnson, whose 1964 map was a deviation (at the time) from the norm of the two parties' base states, also won around 15 percent of his electoral-vote score from carriage of select states from the Old Confederacy.

For the current Democratic Party, and in a period where the winners carry around 30 states, and from a party that lately carries an average of about 11 to 13 electoral votes per state (whereas the Republicans average between 7 and 9 electoral votes per carried state) … the Old Confederacy states carried in winning campaigns begin with Florida. But, unlike with Bill Clinton's two elections of carrying Arkansas, Tennessee, and Louisiana from both 1990s cycles, the Democrats get Virginia and, if the numbers are right, North Carolina.

Georgia is next.

Anything to the tune of 40 states obviously pull in more from the Old Confederacy. It wouldn't surprise, should a winning Democrat actually carry Texas, that South Carolina would come along with the Lone Star State. There aren't many election cycles, in the previous century, in which South Carolina carried differently than Deep South duo Alabama and Mississippi. But, South Carolina would flip before Mississippi and Alabama should the margin be so large.
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HillaryLandslide2016
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« Reply #15 on: December 24, 2014, 04:18:57 PM »

Hillary will put the South back where it belongs: In the Democratic column.
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Chunk Yogurt for President!
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« Reply #16 on: December 24, 2014, 05:33:00 PM »

Arizona, demographics playing a large role in it.
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« Reply #17 on: December 25, 2014, 04:45:54 PM »

Colorado is still a bit more Democratic than Virginia on a national level, so it might make more since to say that Virginia is becoming "Coloradoized" LOL. North Carolina makes the most sense, since the demographic changes happening there (urban areas are growing, and becoming more diverse), are similar to the ones in Virginia. While the same could be said about Georgia, it's definitely a much tougher state for Democrats than North Carolina, and probably won't be competitive for at least another election cycle or two, barring a Democratic landslide.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #18 on: December 29, 2014, 04:10:36 PM »

North Carolina. 

Colorado is more Democratic than Virginia. 
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Mr.Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #19 on: December 29, 2014, 05:19:50 PM »

North Carolina. 

Colorado is more Democratic than Virginia. 

Although, we can win with Roy Cooper in the gov contest, 2014 showed us,even with a good campaign, NC is still a G O P state.

Anyways I picked CO, because we dont need NC in order to win the presidency, but CO is not a Democratic state, it's a purple state like OH is.
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Oregreen
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« Reply #20 on: December 29, 2014, 05:33:40 PM »

North Carolina.  

Colorado is more Democratic than Virginia.  

Although, we can win with Roy Cooper in the gov contest, 2014 showed us,even with a good campaign, NC is still a G O P state.

Anyways I picked CO, because we dont need NC in order to win the presidency, but CO is not a Democratic state, it's a purple state like OH is.

Agreed. NC is a red state without high minority turnout. VA is a Dem-leaning state even without high minority turnout. And Colorado is a swing state (maybe Dem-leaning in General elections). OH is trending more and more Democratic, although it is a Rep-leaning state in Midterm elections. This is all about high turnout.
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Obama-Biden Democrat
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« Reply #21 on: December 29, 2014, 06:36:54 PM »

Arizona, demographics playing a large role in it.

Arizona doesn't have the creative class Liberal whites moving into the state. It has the booming Hispanic population but it's white transplants are Conservative. NC has the research triangle to lure in highly educated whites.
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Fascism Must Be Defeated
Sol
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« Reply #22 on: December 30, 2014, 09:42:39 AM »

VA is a Dem-leaning state even without high minority turnout.

Umm, no?
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #23 on: December 30, 2014, 06:44:06 PM »

Arizona is the Democratic answer to the GOPs Wisconsin/Pennsylania/Minnesota...it's just not turning any time soon even with demographics.

Colorado is Lean-D, but still elastic and with room for the GOP under the perfect storm. It's already "Virginianized" as you put it.

So I'd go with North Carolina, which Hagan was supposed to win and ultimately lost by the narrowest margin.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #24 on: December 31, 2014, 01:46:33 PM »

Arizona, demographics playing a large role in it.

Arizona doesn't have the creative class Liberal whites moving into the state. It has the booming Hispanic population but it's white transplants are Conservative. NC has the research triangle to lure in highly educated whites.

Agreed.  The retirees moving to AZ can easily be motivated to vote 80/20 R in the coming years, which should counteract the diversification of the state until it is at least majority Hispanic.  I am unsure about NC because rural Dem support is still higher there than in the rest of the South which could delay the transition.  I think GA has enough demographic momentum to flip in the 2020's, though.  And if/when it goes, I think it would become as D as it is currently R very quickly.
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