Sri Lanka Presidential Election - January 8, 2015

[Nhoj]

If Sirisena was one of Rajapaksa's ministers, wouldn't that serve to somewhat dampen Tamil enthusiasm for his campaign? It doesn't seem like he's critical of Rajapaksa's handling of the civil war even now.

None of the candidates really address Tamil concerns and there is zero enthusiasm for any of them among Tamils (my source for this is Tamils in DK citing contacts back home, so take it for what you want, but international media also take this for granted), but it was assumed by everybody that the Tamils would go with "anybody-but-Rajapaksa" and the Tamil National Alliance backs Sirisena, but then Sirisena accepted support from the ultras in National Heritage Party and that blurs the picture considerably, but on the other hand I think it would be wrong to underestimate how hated Rajapaksa is among Tamils. Amyway, low Tamil turnout is much more likely than Tamils voting for Rajapaksa.

Yes, that's what I'd have imagined. I assume a Sirisena victory wouldn't really have any effect on Sri Lanka's foreign relations? I'm still a bit dazzled that Rajapaksa is allowed to be chairman of the Commonwealth Heads of Governments Meeting (still serving, just checked), and iirc Modi went rather out of his way to have him at his inauguration, even if that meant alienating Jayalalithaa & co., so it's not as if the government is currently being blackballed by anyone who matters.

Isnt Jayalalithaa locked up now? not sure how much Modi cares. But yeah I would be surprised if Tamil turnout goes above 15-20%.

[Nhoj]

I would be surprised if Tamil turnout goes above 15-20%.

That would be a disaster for Sirisena and also unrealistically low IMO (it was around 40% last time compared to 74% for the country as a whole). This is going to be a high turnout election since so much is a stake and that will affect Tamil turnout as well.

How low was it in the northern provinces ? I may have just seen those numbers and forgot about the east.

[Nhoj]

Sirisena  is getting 70% in jaffna and 80% in Batticaloa and pretty much tying Rajapakse in the Sinhalese heartlands.
Though it does seem to be postal votes and not full votes.