Sri Lanka Presidential Election - January 8, 2015
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  Sri Lanka Presidential Election - January 8, 2015
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Author Topic: Sri Lanka Presidential Election - January 8, 2015  (Read 13737 times)
politicus
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« Reply #25 on: January 06, 2015, 01:18:11 PM »

Well, by the sound of it we should really hope Sirisena wins, for a number of reasons, then?

Yeah, apart from Snowstalker I think that few forumites should be able to find a reason to support Rajapaksa. You need to be fanatically anti-Western and care more about ideological labels than actual policy and human rights to do so.
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politicus
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« Reply #26 on: January 08, 2015, 07:07:28 AM »
« Edited: January 08, 2015, 11:21:36 AM by politicus »

Voting started at 7AM local time and closed at 4PM. There have been a number of "irregularities" and army units have been deployed to the north (Vanni) against the election law, some voters in Tamil constituencies were prevented from voting. Nevertheless the election seems to have gone relatively smoothly and the violence level is not unusual for Sri Lanka.

One opposition activist killed in a drive by shooting. First causality in the campaign.

Results expected tomorrow according to international media, but the electoral commissions result page opens at 8PM local and maybe we will get preliminary results earlier:

http://www.slelections.gov.lk/

EDIT: It did not open at 8PM as announced.
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jaichind
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« Reply #27 on: January 08, 2015, 07:49:04 AM »

Turnout was 60% by 2PM.  Most likely turnout will match it not exceed the 2010 turnout of 75%.  Turnout was higher than expected in Tamil-dominated areas of the north and east which seems like bad news for Rajapakse.  Of course if turnout in Sinhalese areas also stays high that could help Rajapakse who managed a landslide victory in 2010 even though the opposition backed the general that actually won the 2009 war against LTTE.  Sirisena's chances has to be based on higher Tamil and Moor turnout (seems to be true) and hope that the marginal Sinhalese Rajapakse voter does not vote (does not seem to be true.)  That Sirisena, based his Sinhalese credentials can swing a lot of Sinhalese votes to him does not seem likely.  It will have to be based on pro-Rajapakse Sinhalese voter not coming out to vote.  Sirisena will have to hold Rajapakse's share of the Sinhalese vote to around the low 60% to have a chance. 
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politicus
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« Reply #28 on: January 08, 2015, 08:25:57 AM »
« Edited: January 08, 2015, 08:48:07 AM by politicus »

Turnout was 60% by 2PM.  Most likely turnout will match it not exceed the 2010 turnout of 75%.  Turnout was higher than expected in Tamil-dominated areas of the north and east which seems like bad news for Rajapakse.  Of course if turnout in Sinhalese areas also stays high that could help Rajapakse who managed a landslide victory in 2010 even though the opposition backed the general that actually won the 2009 war against LTTE.  Sirisena's chances has to be based on higher Tamil and Moor turnout (seems to be true) and hope that the marginal Sinhalese Rajapakse voter does not vote (does not seem to be true.)  That Sirisena, based his Sinhalese credentials can swing a lot of Sinhalese votes to him does not seem likely.  It will have to be based on pro-Rajapakse Sinhalese voter not coming out to vote.  Sirisena will have to hold Rajapakse's share of the Sinhalese vote to around the low 60% to have a chance.  

Just to be clear the ethnic breakdown is Sinhalese 75%, Tamils (incl. Hill "Tamils" of Indian origin - who are not necessarily of Tamil stock) 15% and Moors 9%. You can not win a Sri Lankan election without at least 40% Sinhalese support even with equal turnout since it is impossible to get all minority voters.
This election is a lot more complex than Sinhalese vs. Tamils/Moors. It is also a referendum on continued authoritarianism with large parts of Rajapaksa's own party deserting him (incl. the former president) and you got a strong conservative Sinhalese party in the opposition. While running up margins with minorities is important (see my comparison to the dynamics of a US presidential election earlier) it would be wrong to reduce it to an ethnic headcount.
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politicus
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« Reply #29 on: January 08, 2015, 01:40:42 PM »
« Edited: January 08, 2015, 01:48:19 PM by politicus »

Only thing counted today was the postal votes for Ratnapura, where Sirisena got more than twice as many votes as Fonseka in 2010 and 43.2%. Dunno if that is anything to go by, but at least a positive result from the Sinhalese heartland.

Results:

http://election.dailymirror.lk/presidential/en
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Nhoj
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« Reply #30 on: January 08, 2015, 04:03:13 PM »
« Edited: January 08, 2015, 04:04:59 PM by Nhoj »

Sirisena  is getting 70% in jaffna and 80% in Batticaloa and pretty much tying Rajapakse in the Sinhalese heartlands.
Though it does seem to be postal votes and not full votes.
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politicus
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« Reply #31 on: January 08, 2015, 04:43:36 PM »
« Edited: January 08, 2015, 05:00:42 PM by politicus »

One of the first non-postal results is Bandula Polling Division in Bandula District, which is 74% Sinhalese, 20% Tamil and 6% Moor, so with an average majority/majority balance. Sirisena gets 52.4% and Rajapaksa 46.4% and it is the sort of district Rajapaksa would be winning if he was on track to a victory.
Still this might just be a part of the district with above average share of Tamils.

But the first numbers look good. There is no reason to believe postal votes are skewed towards Sirisena afaik.

With 550.000 votes counted it is 56.2-42.7 to Sirisena. There are a little over 15.4 mio. registered voters and turnout has most likely been around 75%, but no official number yet.
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Simfan34
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« Reply #32 on: January 08, 2015, 06:03:39 PM »

Things are looking good, but it's very early in the game. What history does Sri Lanka, and I suppose Rajapaksa in particular, have of electoral "peculiarities"?
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politicus
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« Reply #33 on: January 08, 2015, 06:23:42 PM »
« Edited: January 08, 2015, 07:05:26 PM by politicus »

Things are looking good, but it's very early in the game. What history does Sri Lanka, and I suppose Rajapaksa in particular, have of electoral "peculiarities"?

Not the best, but Rajapaksa's capacity to rig the election is primarily in the north and east, where the Army still has a lot of control after the war. He gets suspiciously high numbers from some places in these provinces and in the north some Tamil voters have clearly also been disenfranchised. His problem is that he does not have the same opportunity to influence the result in the Sinhalese areas and the Hill Tamil (Indo-Tamil) areas in the highlands.

It is a "they can do some rigging,  but if the opposition's margin is sufficiently large they will lose anyway" scenario.

Last time Rajapaksa was very popular after defeating the Tigers and didn't need to rig anything to win, but there were voter suppression and intimidation in the north (Jafna and Vanni) anyway.

Some officers support the opposition, which also limits his capacity to cheat.

http://www.newindianexpress.com/world/Rajapaksa-Plans-To-Rig-Polls-with-Help-of-Armymen-Opposition/2015/01/02/article2599769.ece
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politicus
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« Reply #34 on: January 08, 2015, 07:11:36 PM »
« Edited: January 08, 2015, 07:13:53 PM by politicus »

53.2-45.6 to Sirisena with 2 mio. votes in.

Rajapaksa wins the postal votes from Colombo 51.2-48.4.
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politicus
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« Reply #35 on: January 08, 2015, 08:38:03 PM »

Getting closer, 51.4-47,2 at 3,5 mio.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #36 on: January 08, 2015, 08:42:56 PM »

Rajapaksa wins the postal votes from Colombo 51.2-48.4.

As you'd expect the city to be weaker for him than average... but then how representative are postal voters?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #37 on: January 08, 2015, 09:29:15 PM »

Rajapaksa has conceded.
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jaichind
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« Reply #38 on: January 08, 2015, 09:30:35 PM »

With nearly a third of the ballots officially declared, Sirisena has 52.49 percent of the vote and Rajapakse 46.21 percent.  As noted before  Rajapakse has conceded. 
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politicus
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« Reply #39 on: January 08, 2015, 10:02:22 PM »

5, 7 mio. - 52,7-46,0

It is going to be a relatively clear victory,

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politicus
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« Reply #40 on: January 08, 2015, 10:22:25 PM »

Actually a bit surprising Rajapaksa has conceded this early, but I suppose the top brass in the Army have made it clear that they will not accept him trying to hang on to power with a clear defeat.

The officer corps has been divided with some leaks about rigging plans to the opposition etc. and the generals would probably not risk internal strife,

Good news, obviously. Hopefully the transfer of power goes smoothly.
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politicus
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« Reply #41 on: January 08, 2015, 10:36:58 PM »

Rajapaksa wins the postal votes from Colombo 51.2-48.4.

As you'd expect the city to be weaker for him than average... but then how representative are postal voters?

The postal votes seems generally to have been better for Sirisena than the "regular" ones, but it is not a large difference.
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politicus
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« Reply #42 on: January 08, 2015, 10:43:35 PM »

52.4-46.4 at 7 mio. Not moving much.
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politicus
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« Reply #43 on: January 09, 2015, 12:00:18 AM »
« Edited: January 09, 2015, 12:03:42 AM by politicus »

50,9-47,9 at 9 mio.

A bit of a shame Rajapaksa conceded. otherwise I might have been able to convince myself this one could go down to the wire. Wink
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politicus
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« Reply #44 on: January 09, 2015, 12:50:35 AM »
« Edited: January 09, 2015, 12:53:16 AM by politicus »

51.3-47.6 at 11,9
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Simfan34
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« Reply #45 on: January 09, 2015, 02:09:47 AM »


Fantastic!
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politicus
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« Reply #46 on: January 09, 2015, 04:32:08 AM »
« Edited: January 09, 2015, 05:21:52 AM by politicus »

Turnout 81.52%. More than 12.2 million voted.

Final result Sirisena 51.28% vs. Rajapaksa 47.58%

In Northern Province where many voters were turned away Vanni had a turnout of 72.57% after all, but that might have been 80%+ if all who tried had voted. Rajapaksa got 19.07%+ up there, which is unrealistic. Luckily it didn't matter.

Jafna had 66.28% turnout. With 21.85% to Rajapaksa. Even less realistic.

Still, much better than last time where Jafna was 25%. The Tamils voted after all - we will never know exactly how many were disenfranchised.
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politicus
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« Reply #47 on: January 09, 2015, 04:48:53 AM »
« Edited: January 09, 2015, 01:48:57 PM by politicus »

The polling division map (from Wiki). District map looks neater. Sirisena won 12 out of 22 districts.



Link to district map:

http://election.dailymirror.lk/presidential/en


Ethnic maps for comparison:

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politicus
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« Reply #48 on: January 09, 2015, 05:02:15 AM »

Sirisena won Colombo 55.93%-43.4% and the capital had a 82.67% turnout. He got 10 out of 15 polling divisions.
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Insula Dei
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« Reply #49 on: January 09, 2015, 07:40:01 AM »

Let's spare a thought for the candidates that finished third and fourth: Arachchige Rathnayaka Sirisena and Namal Rajapaksa.
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