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  Talk Elections
  General Politics
  Political Geography & Demographics (Moderator: muon2)
  2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Washington
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Author Topic: 2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Washington  (Read 604 times)
lfromnj
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« Reply #25 on: May 22, 2020, 07:19:00 pm »
« edited: May 22, 2020, 07:22:44 pm by lfromnj »



I need to do a lot of work cleaning things up and fixing other spots, but I am happy with my 67% Hispanic (also 7% native) Yakima seat!

Whats the CVAP(go to the voting age population data set and change to CVAP 2018) Just curious about that
Also that district 39 looks quite large for a legislative seat. Any chance the cascade cut could be anywhere else?
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Seattle
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« Reply #26 on: May 26, 2020, 05:51:33 pm »

In my opinion, communities of interest are exceedingly more important for legislative districts since they are so much smaller than CDs.
At the local level, the Columbia Gorge represents the only cohesive COI to cross the Cascades. The next closest would be Lewis + Yakima. Anything involving the combination of Ellensburg + King suburbs or Wenatchee + Snohomish exurbs would be met with fierce resistance (you could make the case that Roslyn/Suncadia/Cle Elum in Kittitas and Leavenworth in Chelan could be placed in western based districts, but we're talking a handful of people there).

Granted, my LD-39 is not great, but if it's not going up into Yakima county to grab valley farm towns or the city (like the current map), then it needs to follow SR 14 into Benton county.

To answer your question, LD-40's CVAP is 46.8% hispanic, 42.6% white, 8.1% native
Neighboring LD-43 (dark purple) is 56.8 hispanic, but only 31.9% CVAP hispanic.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #27 on: May 26, 2020, 05:59:05 pm »

Whats the maximum deviation allowed for Washington?
Would a possible map just use rounding East and West of the cascades?
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #28 on: May 26, 2020, 06:33:12 pm »

Whats the maximum deviation allowed for Washington?
Would a possible map just use rounding East and West of the cascades?

I'm not sure about the state legislature, but there will be an instant lawsuit which the state would probably lose, based on OMOV, if deviation is above 0.5% in either way (and most but not all maps aim for 0% div with cut precincts).
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lfromnj
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« Reply #29 on: May 26, 2020, 06:35:49 pm »

Whats the maximum deviation allowed for Washington?
Would a possible map just use rounding East and West of the cascades?

I'm not sure about the state legislature, but there will be an instant lawsuit which the state would probably lose, based on OMOV, if deviation is above 0.5% in either way (and most but not all maps aim for 0% div with cut precincts).

Yeah I know it would be impossible to have a good rounding for the cascades with 10 districts and the federal court wouldn't allow it but state legislature in general has been allowed to be 10% by the federal courts but Im not sure if Washington state has any specific limits. I think its worth it to divide Washington into 2 parts for state legislative districts and just round it and then divide the 2 parts by the number of rounded districts.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #30 on: May 26, 2020, 08:03:37 pm »

7 Safe D seats in Washington is actually really easy.  I don't see how the Democrats don't work out a map like this if they still hold 7 seats after the election,  especially if it focuses on incumbent protection.





https://davesredistricting.org/join/452fd660-151a-4723-89bc-b159225412eb

WA-1: Clinton +10.4%
WA-2: Clinton +24.5%
WA-3: Trump +7.2%
WA-4: Trump +22.1%
WA-5: Trump +13.6%
WA-6: Clinton +10.8%
WA-7: Clinton +77%
WA-8: Clinton +31.5%
WA-9: Clinton +20.5%
WA-10: Clinton +10.4%

I didn't even really do anything special or make any awkward arrangements with this.   The only reason for WA-2 to pickup Chelan County is to make the Yakima split easier.   
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Sol
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« Reply #31 on: May 26, 2020, 10:20:55 pm »

Random PSA: Skykomish in King County needs to go Snohomish; it's not connected to the rest of King County.
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