RI-Sen: Stephen Laffey Primary Challenge to Lincoln Chafee

[Moooooo]

National Republicans and Bob Novak are scared:

National Republican leaders are pressuring Cranston Mayor Stephen Laffey to stay out of the Rhode Island Republican primary election against liberal Sen. Lincoln Chafee. [...]

Laffey, who is to the right of Chafee, is described by his supporters as confident that he would win the primary against the incumbent senator.

[Joe Kakistocracy]

What are the odds that Chafee could lose the primary?  I.e. how popular is he with RI Republicans?

The funny thing is that if Chafee loses the primary, which means a Democratic pick-up for sure, the Republicans will lose a RINO to an actual Democrat.  Therefore it doesn't really make much difference.

Oh, and...

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...yeah right.

[A18]

A RINO is better than a Democrat.

[AuH2O]

Um I'm not totally sure Laffey couldn't win the general. Shouldn't be totally ruled out given a couple of the best Dem options bowed out.

[Smash255]

Um I'm not totally sure Laffey couldn't win the general. Shouldn't be totally ruled out given a couple of the best Dem options bowed out.

Laffey while not being a hard-core consrvative is not exactly a moderate either, he is fairly conservative.   NO WAY can a Conservative Republican win in a very heavily Democratic state.  Only way a Republican can win in R.I is if they are  moderate or liberal.  Carcieri is pro-lif, but overall he is a moderate & Chafee is a liberal.  Chaffey is way too conservative to win a statewide race in Rhode Island

[King]

I think an economically moderate, socially conservative Republican could do reasonably well in Rhode Island.

[Smash255]

I think an economically moderate, socially conservative Republican could do reasonably well in Rhode Island.

Depends on what your definition of reasonably well is.  No way does someone like that win the state.

[Jake]

Guess Governor Carcieri didn't win then.

[Smash255]

Guess Governor Carcieri didn't win then.

Carceri despite being pro-life & against gay marriage is still quite a bit to the left of Laffey.  He is probably in the middle between Laffey & Chafee

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

Guess Governor Carcieri didn't win then.

Gubernatorial elections are far different than Congressional ones. That should be blatantly obvious looking at which states have governors of each parties now.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

As I've posted before, only 16% of RI voters identify as Republicans, so the primary electorate will be very small.  Most of Chafee's supporters are not Republicans and will not be voting in this primary.   But who knows...I'd like to see a poll.

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

If it looks like Laffey had a strong chance to win the primary, I bet Chafee would switch parties and we'd get a Laffey/Chafee race. Chafee would win that easily.

[AuH2O]

If it looks like Laffey had a strong chance to win the primary, I bet Chafee would switch parties and we'd get a Laffey/Chafee race. Chafee would win that easily.

Switching parties might not be that easy. Who said RI Democrats would just say "oh well, I guess now he's our guy."

Plus going to the minority party isn't very fun.