Taiwan Local Elections, Nov 29 2014: Blow to the Nats

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

To put a truncated perspective on results: disaster for the Nationalist Party (KMT), who last night lost strongholds like Taipei, Taichung and six other councils. This has ramifications for the Ma Ying-jeou administration, intent on boosting links with China; because there seems to widespread anti-Beijing sentiment at present. The Premier has resigned immediately and Ma has offered up a "party reform" plan.



Blue = KMT (broadly centre-right, pro-unification)
Green = DPP (broadly centre-left, pro-independence sorta)
Black - Indys (supported by the DPP)

[jaichind]

I meant to write about this but since it was clear the KMT was going to be beaten I was too depressed to write about it before the election.  Watching the results come in was not as depressing as 2000 and 2004 where I was sure the pan-Blues would win but ended up losing.  This time I knew the KMT would be beaten bad.  The scale of the KMT defeat surprised even me.  I expected the KMT to lose Taipei City, Taichung City, Keelong City, and Penghu County.  I viewed Jayi City and Changhwa County as tossups and in a DPP wave which I suspected would take place the KMT would also lose.  But KMT losing Taoyuan County and Hsinchu City was a total shock although both was very close.  I suspected the KMT thought these two were in the bag like I did and let their guard down and was crushed by the anti-KMT wave.

What is especially concerning from the KMT point of view is if you look at the pan-Blue vs pan-Green vote share it comes out to be 43/56.  In terms of KMT vs DPP vote share it was something like 41/48 but the DPP took a page from the Dems in KS (Senate) and AK (Governor)  and backed pro-DPP independents in places like Taipei City and Hsinchu County.  Once you factor these votes in as on pan-Green along with other KMT or DPP rebels you get 43/56.  Since the advent of competitive elections on the ROC since the early 1980s the Pan-Blue/Pan-Green split has varied between 50/50 to 62/38.  Of course one has to take the 43/56 split with a grain of salt.  These pro-DPP independents backed by the DPP themselves were very adept at appealing to the pan-Blue voter.  The various DPP rebels that ran were moderates that most likely took more votes from the pan-Blue vote based rather than the pan-Green vote base.  Still, this level of Blue/Green vote share is unprecedented.   I had expected the Blue/Green split to be something like 48/51 which would have meant the KMT lose all the tossups by small margins.  Instead it was a landslide.

What led to this sort of result is from two different factors.  First, KMT infighting between the pro-Ma (ROC President), and pro-Wang (ROC Speaker of the House) demotivated the KMT base from coming out to vote.  Turnout fell from the 2009/2010 cycle reflected this.  Two, the youth based Sunflower movement from the spring of 2014 which mirrors the current HK protesters had the effect of increasing youth turnout in this election which mostly voted against the KMT.  As a result the electorate of 2014 is very different from that of 2009/2010 and the 2012 ROC Presidential elections.

The DPP tends to be much more competitive at the municipal level so typically the Blue/Green vote share split at any municipal level translates roughly to Blue/Green vote share split with a swing of 4%-5% for the Blues in the Presidential election a year later.  So Blue/Green split this time of 43/56 should translate into a 2016 ROC presidential Blue/Green split of around 47-48/52-53.  Assuming the KMT split and youth surge factors are not abated by the KMT in the next year, chances are pretty dim the KMT will win 2016.  Before this election I figured that the chances of KMT victory in 2016 was around a 45/55 shot.  Now I would call it a 30/70 shot.  Most likely it will be Chu (KMT) vs Tsai (DPP) and while Chu is the emerging superstar on the KMT side he will most likely be beaten.  In fact, Chu might not run now knowing the KMT will lose and some other sacrificial lamb runs and as a result Tsai would win something like 55-45 in 2016.

[jaichind]

A history of pan-Blue/pan-Green vote shares based on my calculations

1992 Legislature            60.7/35.4
1993/94 Municipal cycle 55.8/43.7
1995 Legislature            61.3/36.8
1996 Presidential           78.9/21.3  KMT Lee took a lot of Green votes so it was really 65/35
1997/98 Municipal cycle 52.2/47.1  Pan-Blue vote was hopelessly split leading to a KMT rout
1998 Legislature            61.7/35.6
2000 Presidential           59.9/40.1  Pan-Blue vote was split leading to DPP victory
2001 Legislature            54.6/43.7
2001/02 Municipal cycle 52.7/46.7
2004 Presidential           49.9/50.1 DPP Chen "shot" day before election leading to DPP surge, if it
                                                     not been that "shot" it would have been 54/46 based on polls
2004 Legislature            54.5/44.6
2005/06 Municipal cycle 54.8/44.4
2008 Legislature            57.7/42.3
2008 Presidential           58.4/41.6
2009/10 Municipal cycle 51.2/48.6
2012 Legislature            54.5/45.5
2012 Presidential           54.4/45.6
2014 Municipal              42.8/56.0
2016 Presidential           most likely 47/53 if current trends hold

You can see what an unprecedented defeat the KMT and the pan-Blue suffered in 2014.  To be fair, it is not as bad as it looks.  The pan-Blue has long dominated the political scene on ROC so splits are more likely on the Blue side than Greens.  So the higher Blue vote share to some extend reflected the additive affect of sometimes having more than 1 pan-Blue candidate.  In 2014 the KMT which was staring at defeat actually did a good job a preventing a split in the pan-Blue camp.  Only in Keelong City did the Pan-Blues end up with an effective rebel that ran.  The DPP on the other hand, tired to being beaten made way for pro-DPP independents that could attract Pan-Blue votes.  The DPP actually suffered some splits but the DPP rebels themselves are from the moderate wing and most likely also took pan-Blue votes although I still count them as part of pan-Green vote share since the candidates are in theory from the pan-Green camp.  

[jaichind]

From a City/County council members elected point of view, the DPP surge in 2014 is more muted relative to 2009/2010 and the KMT on the whole still control more councils than will DPP

2009/2010

KMT     419
DPP      258
NPB         2   (NPB or Non-Party Bloc is a centrist pan-Blue outfit)
PFP         5   (PFP or People's First Party is a KMT splinter and in theory part of pan-Blue)
TSU        5    (TSU or Taiwan Solidarity Union is a KMT splinter that is pro-DPP and part of pan-Green)
NP          3    (NP or New Party is KMT splinter that is part of pan-Blues)
LP          1     (LP or Labor Party is a far left pro-PRC outfit)
GP          0     (GP or Green Party)
Ind.     215


Now it  is

KMT     386
DPP      291
NPB         2
PFP         9
TSU        9
NP          2
LP          1
GP          1
Ind.     205

To be fair, most  of the 2009/2010 the 215 Independents tilted pro-Blue by very large margins.  In 2014 taking a cursory glance at the 205 Independents elected one gets the impression that they are still more pro-Blue than pro-Green but the gap is not very large.  

In terms of vote share for the city/county councils, the DPP edged out KMT 37.0% vs 36.9% from 31.3% vs 40.6% in 2009/2010.  On the other hand PFP got more votes than TSU while a majority of Independents that won are more pro-Blue.  So from a Blue/Green point of view the Blues still beat out the Greens in terms of city/county council vote share.

In this election, the pan-Greens are on their way toward some sort parity with the pan-Blues at the city/county council level which were until 2005/2006 were almost completely dominated by the KMT.

[jaichind]

To put a truncated perspective on results: disaster for the Nationalist Party (KMT), who last night lost strongholds like Taipei, Taichung and six other councils. This has ramifications for the Ma Ying-jeou administration, intent on boosting links with China; because there seems to widespread anti-Beijing sentiment at present. The Premier has resigned immediately and Ma has offered up a "party reform" plan.



Blue = KMT (broadly centre-right, pro-unification)
Green = DPP (broadly centre-left, pro-independence sorta)
Black - Indys (supported by the DPP)

Well, I agree DPP is pro-independence sorta.  But I would also say that KMT is pro-unification sorta.  The fact is if either party came out with an explicit pro-unification or pro-independence agenda respectively the party that does it will lose by a landslide.  

Black is really independents.  The Taipei City independent is for sure pro-DPP.  The Hualian County and KinMen County independent are really pro-KMT even though they both defeated an official KMT candidate.  The DPP is so weak in both counties it is not KMT vs DPP but KMT vs KMT rebel with DPP not even bothering to back the KMT rebel since that would be the kiss of death for said KMT rebel.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I see ... Do the maps follow ethnic patterns? So are the pan-Blues supported in the area of the Chinese diaspora, while the pan-Greens are ethnic Taiwanese, or is it somewhat more complicated?

[jaichind]

I would like to write the funny story of Hualian County magistrate Fu Kun-chi (傅崐萁) who just won re-election as a way for me to deal with my depression over the KMT rout.

Fu Kun-chi (傅崐萁)



Fu was a member of the KMT which has dominated Hualian County politics for decades.  In the 2004 County magistrate elections Fu failed to get the KMT nomination and switched over to the KMT splinter PFP and ran.  He was defeated by the official KMT candidate.  In 2009 he rejoined the KMT and worked to get the KMT nomination, but due to outstanding charges of corruption the KMT refused to nominate him. So he ran as an independent and beat the official KMT candidate with 56% of the vote.  

But even as he was being sworn in in December 2009, the progress continued into investigations into Fu's past for corruption.  To hedge himself, six days before he took office he divorced his wife Shu Chin-wei (徐榛蔚) citing irreconcilable differences.

Shu Chin-wei (徐榛蔚)


And then right before taking office he announced that he will appoint his ex-wife Shu lieutenant county magistrate so she would be in line to take over as county magistrate if he is charged and removed from office.  ROC law says that one cannot appoint a relative to such an office but nothing stops someone from appointing his ex-wife.  What is funny about this "divorce" is that after the divorce is that Shu "moved out" of Fu's house, just to move right next door.  As Fu was taking office after divorcing his wife six days earlier, they held hands and kissed several times during the entire ceremony.  After Fu took office, day in an day out Fu and his ex-wife lieutenant county magistrate pretty much spent all their time in office together including going to work and coming home at the same time.   During the 2012 ROC Prez elections, Fu endorsed the KMT candidate Ma, and both Fu and Shu campaigned for Ma together in various campaign events which also included them holding hands.  The Hualian County prosecution office also charged Fu and Shu with false divorce but Fu claimed he is being falsely charged.

Now, fast forward to the 2014 elections where Fu is running for re-election.  It was Fu running as an independent against the offocial KMT candidate.  There has been more progress in the investigations of  Fu and his corruption charges.   There was a risk that during the campaign Fu might be stripped from the right to even run for office. To hedge against this risk, Fu's ex-wife and current lieutenant county magistrate Shu also announced that she was running for the office of Hualian County magistrate as well.   The idea is that if Fu stopped from running and name taken off the ballot, then his political machine can push his vote to be shifted his ex-wife Shu who then will be elected.


This leads the the spectacle of Fu and Shu running at the same time against each other but showing up in campaign rallies as two rival candidates on paper but taking part in the same event.



There are even campaign posters with both candidates and names of both candidates on the poster.

The idea of the poster is although it is not said explicitly:  Please vote for Fu, but if Fu is charged and name taken off the ballot please vote Shu.



As it is Fu was allowed to run and won with 56% of the vote.  Shu actually captured 3% of the vote. Maybe some supporters of Fu did not get the memo that Fu was not being charged, yet, so he is eligible to take office if he wins.

[Simfan34]

I can't really give any insights, but I will say that seeing the BBC refer to the "pro-Beijing Kuomintang" was jarring, to say the least.

I mean, it's not untrue at this point, but it just seems surreal when you look at it.