florida

[minionofmidas]

Depends on what part of Florida.

[Smash255]

Hindsight is 20 / 20!

Well, but this one in the prophetic column then:

Would it be better for Kerry to abandon FL?

The polls in FL do not show any big Kerry lead and never did; more recently they TEND to show a Bush victory there.  If Kerry's numbers don't improve, would be better for Kerry NOT to make a great effort there and target Midwestern states, PA (and WV), NJ, and those weak areas in New Englland (NH, ME)?

This is straight strategic question.

Note the date.  I go on the thread to mention WI, MN, PA, NH, ME (which Kerry took), OH, IA, and WV.

Not thate except for MN (and my totally wrong NJ), these were all close states which ended up being closer than FL, IIRC.

You also have to take in the National Average/  For the most part we are assuming a 50/50 election.  In that case (against the National Average) Florida was closer than most thsoe other states listed

[Lincoln Republican]

Democrats are still bitter over their 2000 loss in Florida.

They tried to exact revenge in the 2002 election for Governor when the DNC opted to dump millions into the Florida Governors race in a futile effort to topple Jeb.

It wasn't even close in 2004 between Bush and Kerry, in spite of the stupid exit polls released on election day.

Florida has one GOP Senator, and I dare say they will have two after the next Senate election in Florida.

There seems to be lots of sunshine in Florida for the GOP these days. 

In politics though, things can turn on a dime.

One thing I would like to add, Katherine Harris sits in Congress, which must be a very bitter pill for the Dems to swallow.

[DanielX]

West Virginia is far more volatile than California.

Both have had sudden political transitions in recent years - reversing prior trends (until recently, California was Republican and West Virginia Democrat). The 1980s-1990s had California on a sharp Democrat-leaning tilt. The 2000s, now, see a similar Republican trend for West Virginia. Of course, at the moment West Virginia's state-level politics are Democrat-dominated, but remember that this was true for Texas until the 1990s. And Texas is today a very Republican state.

[Gustaf]

The Florida senate election was one of the closest last year. Florida remains pretty much 50-50 atm, I'd say.

In terms of campaign focus it's probably true that Kerry should have gone for the steel states and not for Florida. In the long term I think that Florida is a better target though, partially because Florida is gaining EVs and CDs while Ohio's losing theirs...