(i use "republican" because "GOP" annoying me. Dem are older than rep !)
some elements make me think than this numeral victory of the republicans will be a cause of deception for 2016
-number of votes : very behind the 2010 score. Conclusion : there is no wave for republicans but most simply, dem stay home. More : rep lost more vote than democrats (-5,4 M for rep, -4,9 for dem)
-local referendum : even in republicans states, people vote in a majority for traditionnal dem patterns, like minimal wage.
conclusion : except a world war or pandemic, the democrate candidate in 2016 WILL win the white house
1.) True Demographics favor Dems in Presidential Elections. Udall would still be a US Senator by not by that of a margin victory wise despite running a horrible campaign.
2.) Dems stayed home-The problem is you don't win many elections win you lose Indies by 8 and the GOP managed to keep the Dem Victory with so-called "Moderates" to 9 points. I think as long as the Republicans can keep the Dems victory margin with "Moderates" to 10-11 points they will have a good shot at winning. If the Republicans lose "Moderates" by 15 points like Mitt Romney the R's lose.
3.) True local referendums favored Dems but the GOP ran better candidates but The GOP candidates were younger and more optimistic than the Dem candidates in my opinion.
With Udall, I would guess that since this election was R+5, 2010 was R+6 and 2012 was R+2, 2016, could have been R+1 and with an R+1 electorate, he would have won by 1-3 instead of losing by 1-2. Maybe the difference could have saved Hagan, Begich and put Orman over the edge. That would have turned R+9 to R+6...the Republicans would have still won if this was a general election because the other pick ups were by double-digits.
Orman lost by 11, a 3 point swing wouldn't have changed that.
