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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: Virginiá)
  2014's fake victory of republicans
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Author Topic: 2014's fake victory of republicans  (Read 7413 times)
pbrower2a
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« Reply #25 on: November 29, 2014, 08:42:51 pm »

2014 was a big, smashing victory for the Republican Party, the sort that offers the prospect of GOP dominance for the next fifty years and a very new economic order -- the purest plutocracy since Chile under Pinochet. Citizens United has fundamentally changed the American political scene to the advantage of any well-heeled plutocrats who can flood the media with Orwellian propaganda.

Say what you want about the GOP win depending upon turnout -- but what if the turnout of 2014 becomes typical for the next two big elections? At such a point, the Republicans likely have Constitutional majorities in both Houses of Congress and 3/4 of all State Houses, and the Republican Party could have the role in American politics what Article 6 of the old Soviet Constitution allotted to the Communist Party -- a practical monopoly.

...  
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hopper
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« Reply #26 on: November 29, 2014, 09:06:05 pm »

2014 was a big, smashing victory for the Republican Party, the sort that offers the prospect of GOP dominance for the next fifty years and a very new economic order -- the purest plutocracy since Chile under Pinochet. Citizens United [/i]has fundamentally changed the American political scene to the advantage of any well-heeled plutocrats who can flood the media with Orwellian propaganda.

Say what you want about the GOP win depending upon turnout -- but what if the turnout of 2014 becomes typical for the next two big elections? At such a point, the Republicans likely have Constitutional majorities in both Houses of Congress and 3/4 of all State Houses, and the Republican Party could have the role in American politics what Article 6 of the old Soviet Constitution allotted to the Communist Party -- a practical monopoly.

...  
Citizens United? The Dems won the Presidency in 2012 and you are blaming Citizens United for the Dems under performance in the mid-terms or  their shocking loss in the Maryland's Governors Race this year? Face it the Dems ran on "War on Women" in 2014 and it failed them big time. The "War On Women" campaign payed off big time in 2012 I know.

Flood the media with propaganda? The Liberals own the media except for Fox News and C-Span and maybe a couple more outlets.

The Presidents Party always takes a beating in the mid-term elections with exceptions being 1998 and 2002. Its almost a law  The Presidents Party has a penalty if you will in mid-terms that they are guaranteed to lose seats in Congress.

Election Turnout-Mid-term elections are always lower turnout are always lower than in Presidential Year Elections. Mid-Term Election turnout is usually 40% this year it was 37% so turnout for a mid-term was down slightly.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #27 on: November 30, 2014, 02:33:17 am »

Say what you want about the GOP win depending upon turnout -- but what if the turnout of 2014 becomes typical for the next two big elections?

Why consider something that's close to impossible? This election had low turnout even by midterm standards. A lot people (disproportionately Democratic) think voting only matters when a president is on the ballot.
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Stranger in a strange land
strangeland
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« Reply #28 on: November 30, 2014, 12:16:36 pm »

Say what you want about the GOP win depending upon turnout -- but what if the turnout of 2014 becomes typical for the next two big elections?

Why consider something that's close to impossible? This election had low turnout even by midterm standards. A lot people (disproportionately Democratic) think voting only matters when a president is on the ballot.

Which is a huge, huge problem. What are we going to do about it? Furthermore, what if those voters decide it isn't worth showing up if a Democrat other than Obama is on the ballot because "THEY'RE ALL THE SAME!!!111!!". It baffles me that anyone who lived through the Bush years can think this way, but I know some who do.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #29 on: November 30, 2014, 12:33:48 pm »

Say what you want about the GOP win depending upon turnout -- but what if the turnout of 2014 becomes typical for the next two big elections?

Why consider something that's close to impossible? This election had low turnout even by midterm standards. A lot people (disproportionately Democratic) think voting only matters when a president is on the ballot.

Turnout was low in part because of the Orwellian propaganda that the Koch fronts pumped into the airwaves. Until recently the usual contest was between the formal opponents. Now Americans for Prosperity and similar groups unaccountable to any but those who fund them can be counted on to make sure that anyone not in full support of absolute plutocracy gets blindsided.

Maybe voters of 2016 will realize what is at stake and treat the bilge for what it is -- lies, lies, and more lies. Maybe voting behavior of the Millennial Generation (adults born after about 1980) begin having their own candidates on the ballot and run against Hard Right candidates, even incumbents. Minimum age for a US Senator is 30, which means that persons born as late as 1986 will be able to run for Senate seats. People born as late as 1998 will be able to vote. If such people vote in huge numbers, then people with no stake in crony capitalism, cheap labor, brutal management, and environmental degradation will have little cause to vote R.

But 2016 is critical. Democrats will need to win back the Senate... and if the House is unduly unpopular, maybe the House is in play. The last election more inspires nightmares in me than hope. Please excuse that.
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Cory Booker
olawakandi
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« Reply #30 on: November 30, 2014, 02:05:17 pm »
« Edited: November 30, 2014, 02:06:57 pm by OC »

Webb/or Clinton will be the nominee and they will have a 242 or 272 firewall to play with and IL, WI, and PA senate map to play with.  The averages go up in prez years than in midterms from 90 million to 120 million, usually from universities and college towns and the young voters had no reason to come out this election, to change the dynamics than in 2010. Because they identify with the Mike Moore, Occupy Wallstreet. That Mainstreet, which is the political arm still to some degree has helped out Wallstreet in the recession at the expense of the lower class. And if you arent a college grad, that has paid down on his student loans, have a wife and family and making good money, 35 K a year, you aren't part of the 47%.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #31 on: December 01, 2014, 02:41:18 am »

Say what you want about the GOP win depending upon turnout -- but what if the turnout of 2014 becomes typical for the next two big elections?

Why consider something that's close to impossible? This election had low turnout even by midterm standards. A lot people (disproportionately Democratic) think voting only matters when a president is on the ballot.

Which is a huge, huge problem. What are we going to do about it? Furthermore, what if those voters decide it isn't worth showing up if a Democrat other than Obama is on the ballot because "THEY'RE ALL THE SAME!!!111!!". It baffles me that anyone who lived through the Bush years can think this way, but I know some who do.

You've got me on that one. People talk every midterm cycle about how they're going to turn out their base from the presidential, but it never happens. I blame our awful education system, personally. People don't know how the government works, so they think only the president matters. Combine that with the general laziness of Americans, and this is what you get.

It doesn't really have to do with Obama. 2004 had much higher turnout than either 2002 or 2006 (55% vs. 37% for both of the midterms). Contrary to popular belief, Democrats did not win in 2006 because there was no midterm dropoff, they won because even a bunch of conservatives were pissed off at Bush, and voted accordingly (or stayed home).
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IceSpear
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« Reply #32 on: December 01, 2014, 02:42:22 am »

Say what you want about the GOP win depending upon turnout -- but what if the turnout of 2014 becomes typical for the next two big elections?

Why consider something that's close to impossible? This election had low turnout even by midterm standards. A lot people (disproportionately Democratic) think voting only matters when a president is on the ballot.

Turnout was low in part because of the Orwellian propaganda that the Koch fronts pumped into the airwaves. Until recently the usual contest was between the formal opponents. Now Americans for Prosperity and similar groups unaccountable to any but those who fund them can be counted on to make sure that anyone not in full support of absolute plutocracy gets blindsided.

Maybe voters of 2016 will realize what is at stake and treat the bilge for what it is -- lies, lies, and more lies. Maybe voting behavior of the Millennial Generation (adults born after about 1980) begin having their own candidates on the ballot and run against Hard Right candidates, even incumbents. Minimum age for a US Senator is 30, which means that persons born as late as 1986 will be able to run for Senate seats. People born as late as 1998 will be able to vote. If such people vote in huge numbers, then people with no stake in crony capitalism, cheap labor, brutal management, and environmental degradation will have little cause to vote R.

But 2016 is critical. Democrats will need to win back the Senate... and if the House is unduly unpopular, maybe the House is in play. The last election more inspires nightmares in me than hope. Please excuse that.

The Kochs and outside groups did the exact same thing in 2012 as they did in 2014.
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