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  Talk Elections
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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  NH-Purple Strategies/Bloomberg/Saint Anselm: Clinton+1 vs. Romney
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Author Topic: NH-Purple Strategies/Bloomberg/Saint Anselm: Clinton+1 vs. Romney  (Read 970 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« on: November 24, 2014, 07:17:26 am »

46-45 Hillary/Romney
47-39 Hillary/Bush
48-41 Hillary/Paul

The Bloomberg Politics/St. Anselm New Hampshire poll was conducted Nov. 12-18 and surveyed a base sample of 500 likely 2016 general election voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points, as well as 407 likely Republican presidential primary voters and 404 likely Democratic presidential primary voters, each with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

http://www.businessweek.com/pdfs/bloomberg-saint-anselm-purple-NH-survey-Q1-to-Q9-11-2014.pdf
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Biden/Abrams Voter
Adam Griffin
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« Reply #1 on: November 24, 2014, 07:19:49 am »

RIP Hillary Cry
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #2 on: November 24, 2014, 07:27:13 am »

Also:

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Dixie Reborn
BeyondTruthAndIdeals
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« Reply #3 on: November 24, 2014, 07:49:43 am »

So how good is this pollster? Do we trust them?
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Mehmentum
Icefire9
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« Reply #4 on: November 24, 2014, 08:17:04 am »
« Edited: November 24, 2014, 09:46:58 am by Mehmentum »

Paul, Romney, Bush perform roughly equal to their favorability.  Paul and Bush both have room to grow, but its obvious (at least in this poll) that Bush is worse off.  

At this point, it doesn't look good for Republicans in New Hampshire, since Hillary's favorables are over 50.  Though it will be interesting to see how that dynamic plays out elsewhere.

Edit:  Though Obama's favorability rating looks pretty low compared to other polls (besides the Yougov, which isn't trustworthy).  Also, they're using a likely voter model for an election that's 2 years away.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5 on: November 24, 2014, 11:46:33 am »

So how good is this pollster? Do we trust them?

Bloomberg is a good journalistic source. Figuring that Hillary is going to win her favorability rating which is surely very close to her approval rating...

New Hampshire will not be an instant call as in 2008, but I can;t see the state going for any Republican. 
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Devils30
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« Reply #6 on: November 24, 2014, 12:47:12 pm »
« Edited: November 24, 2014, 12:49:50 pm by Devils30 »

Hillary's favorables are +6, identical to Obama's winning margin there in 2012. Remember Romney started 2012 off with a big lead over Obama in NH. Poll also has issues because it only asks primary voters, you need to ask the lazy people who don't vote in primaries but do in November.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #7 on: November 24, 2014, 02:17:00 pm »

Better headline: "Hillary up 7-8 points on people who could actually be the nominee"
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DS0816
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« Reply #8 on: November 25, 2014, 10:49:32 am »

So how good is this pollster? Do we trust them?

No.
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I Was So Wrong
outofbox6
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« Reply #9 on: November 28, 2014, 07:49:31 pm »

Bush, Clinton, and Romney benefit from mostly everyone knowing who they are (specifically Clinton and Romney). Surely Republicans don't want to go through the 47% comments again?
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