Byrd only up by 10? WTF

[Moooooo]

WV-Sen: Byrd up by Ten in GOP Poll

The Anderson Group did a poll last month for the National Republican Senatorial Committee on the West Virginia senate race. While it's not 100% certain that Byrd will run for re-election, it seems pretty likely to me that he will. The opponent in this poll is GOP "dream" candidate, Rep. Shelly Capito (likely voters, no trendlines):

Byrd: 52
Capito: 42
Undecided: 6
(MoE: ±4.3%)

Before you get too excited, please note that Byrd won his last election (in 2000) by a margin of 78-21 (not a mis-print). It's a little troublesome to see him this close, but of course, this is a partisan poll. Also interesting is the incredibly low level of undecideds. Byrd has 110% name recognition in his home state, and I'm guessing that Capito must be well-known, too. (WV only has three congressmen, so that would make sense.)

But remember this as well: Byrd is an institution in West Virginia in a way that few other politicians have ever been in any other state. I've read many a time that you can't drive very far in WV without coming across a Robert Byrd High School or a Robert Byrd Bridge and the like. Personally, despite the political shift we've seen in WV in recent years, I think Byrd still has more than enough mojo to pull this one off.

www.swingstateproject.com

[Cashcow]

Byrd: 52
Capito: 42
Undecided: 8

Should that add up to 100?

[Moooooo]

Byrd: 52
Capito: 42
Undecided: 8

Should that add up to 100?

Yeah, it should.  I have no idea whats going on.  I guess it should be 52-42-6

[King]

The extra 2% is within the margin of error.

[Moooooo]

Here is an article to go with the numbers.  A little biased?

http://www.dailymail.com/news/Don+Surber/200504141/?pt=0

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

1-It's a GOP poll
2-The fact it doesn't add up to 1000 shows that things already are wrong
3-Even if he only does lead Capito by 10, that doesn't mean much since that's still a wide lead, and there's no reason for Capito to give up her House seat to lose by 10 points. Therefore she won't run and the GOP will have to run some noname.

Byrd is unbeatable.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Byrd only up by 10 in a partisan push poll. Quick, run for the hills.

[Moooooo]

You guys should read the article I posted above.  That thing has practically crowned Senator Capito.

[bullmoose88]

Byrd's not going to be ousted...though it does show that he's been hanging around a little too long.

Sooner or later if the Democrats don't shape up...their local hold on WV might start to weaken.

[Sam Spade]

Byrd's not going to be ousted...though it does show that he's been hanging around a little too long.

Sooner or later if the Democrats don't shape up...their local hold on WV might start to weaken.

As usual on this forum, most partisans can't look at their own party straight.  Bullmoose is the most accurate of the comments I've seen so far, though I have a few points to make.

Clearly partisan polls are not to be trusted from either side.  I heard a lot of crowing a few days ago when a partisan poll gave Conrad Burns an upper-40s approval rating.

My own personal opinion is that to both of these totals, you should probably add around, say 5-10% and you're probably fairly accurate.

The point is that Byrd is not in trouble, but his days of winning by 40% or more probably over.  Capito could probably make it 15% reasonably, a lesser challenger would be 20-25%.

It has to with two things.  First, Byrd is perceived more nationally in West Virginia because of his rather public dialogue of the last few years (I noted the same thing with DeLay).  The issue with Byrd in this is that he's got much more ground to lose than DeLay on the whole(both a good and bad thing), but it probably won't affect him or Rockefeller in the short run.

The West Virginia Democrats are very successful on the local level.  After Byrd/Rockefeller retire, if they can make the Senate race more local, they can hold on.  If they can't, they will most likely lose; its just the way things are right now and for the forseeable future if social issues are as important as they are right now (and I don't see that changing).

Now I'll just wait for Al to come along and contradict everything I'm saying.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Oh look a poll with a suspiciously large MoE, done by a firm I've never heard of before and published by the NRSC (and you can bet some interesting questions were asked before the main one...) shows a Democratic incumbent leading by less than he normally wins by against a "dream" candidate.

Toss it on the fire please.

The only declared candidate is one Hiram "Bucky" Lewis. And he's a joke.

Btw, I refuse to read an article by those hacks on the Charleston Daily Hate Mail on principle... they worship the ground Capito walks on, even going as far as to saying that she has a "lock" on her district. Which as anyone who actually knows anything knows, is complete bollocks. She has never had a decent candidate run against her and in 2004 she only won because her opponant had no name recognition outside Charleston.

[bullmoose88]

The GOP definitely shouldn't waste a house seat on this. Byrd's going to be re-elected (the margin really isn't significant).

Barring Byrd living another 6 years...groom some candidates for when Byrd and Rockefeller are gone.

Having little to no local foothold (save a congressional seat or two)...isn't going to help in the long run...its not even like the GOP is close in WV in anything but the top line (president)...nows the time to build infrastructure (especially after Bush's 2 wins)...not to pipedream.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The point is that Byrd is not in trouble, but his days of winning by 40% or more probably over.  Capito could probably make it 15% reasonably, a lesser challenger would be 20-25%.

He only won by 40% due to joke candidates.

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Certainly in Charleston and the D.C exurbs. Not in most of the old coalfields though.

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I expect he'd lose a couple of counties now

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True, but they're also aided by the sheer incompetence of the WV GOP. When a party's biggest name is the daughter of a crook convicted for mail fraud that party doesn't have what could be called a deep bench...

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Which they will, unless there's a very bitter primary

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Thing is a lot of the likely Democratic nominees are more socially conservative than any serious Republican candidate (most WV GOP candidates are jokes).

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Only parts

[Filuwaúrdjan]

nows the time to build infrastructure

From scratch

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Interestingly whats shaping up to be the big race in WV next year does involve Capito... the Democrats have finally found a half decent candidate with some name recognition and will probably put a lot of effort into taking her out. It'll depend on turnout IMO (ie: whether the suburbs can outvote Chemical Valley and the few mountain counties in the district).

Naturally the Gazette thinks Capito is very vunerable, while the Daily Mail thinks she's unbeatable (due to walking on water abilities).

[M]

Yes, Byrd is a living deity, but so was Hollings, and his last two races were fairly close. But seriously, it seems unlikely he will be taken down, though he may choose to go quietly and throw the GOP a new seat. In the long-run, this will become a very Republican state at every level.

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

Here's the thing though: even if this is true, it's hardly encouraging for Capito to run.

Why should she give up her House seat so she can lose by 10 points  instead of a joke candidating losing by 30 points?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Why should she give up her House seat so she can lose by 10 points  instead of a joke candidating losing by 30 points?

The fact that she might lose here House seat anyway might influence her decision... still a fairly good chance at getting re-elected (although it'll depend on national trends to a large extent) to the House, or an absolutely tiny chance at pulling off an upset in a Senate race isn't much of a choice IMO.

Personally I think she wants to be Governer like her crooked Daddy was...

[Moooooo]

We shouldn't waste any time or money on this race. What we should do is make sure a Republican Governor is elected, because I think Byrd's days are numbered.

WV just had a gubernatorial race in 2004.  The Democrat won with 64% of the vote.