The Future is Here!

[Maxwell]

President Romney approvals dip again



28% Approve
61% Disapprove

After what was earlier on seen as a year of recovery has gone back to square one after a new round of terrible news for the administration. In his first year, he had seen some remarkable success at being able to deal with Congress, far better than President Obama, but after a second year of scandal, failure, and foreign affairs, Romney didn't run for re-election due to, most likely, terrible approval numbers. Throughout 2020, he begun to recover those numbers, even hitting the mid 40s, until late October.

It was discovered in late October that a widespread drone operation, used in order to assassinate Kim Jong Un, had failed spectacularly, killing hundreds of innocent civilians in the nation and not hitting a single North Korean official. Un, seeing it as a declaration of war, has threatened the United States with the advancement of nukes. Romney's actions were seen as agressing the nation, and many fear serious retribution. This news is also expected to cause a downturn in the economy in the coming months, as many are fearing for themselves.

And despite the early reputation as a concensus builder in Washington, the final version of the Hutchinson-Castro Immigration Reform bill failed 55-38, failing to rise above objections from both Republican Jeff Sessions, who felt the bill wasn't stringent enough on the border. The votes were generally party line, with a few exceptions on both sides, including some Democrats (like Al Franken, Jeff Merkley, Elizabeth Warren, and Bernie Sanders) who felt the bill was too harsh on border security and didn't do nearly enough to to integrate immigrants.

One plus - Romney announced a halt to any new troops in the Iraq region to combat ISIS. He is announcing a different strategy, and instead is moving to arm allied forces in the region to fight ISIS. This is considered something of a victory for anti-war activists, who see it as something of a concession from the administration that the strategy has failed. It also hurts Senator Cotton a good deal, whose strategy has been "surge, surge surge".

Graham headed to Victory in November!



RCP Average
53.8% Graham
42.3% Cotton

Due to the October Surprise of serious Romney stumbles, Gwen Graham has pulled to a significant lead in her campaign for President. Tom Cotton, seeing his foreign policy being completely thrashed by the administration, has attacked the administration as lacking leadership, and has boldly stuck with his position in saying that "we will continue to fight evil and opponents of freedom wherever they may be.". That stance, which is incredibly unpopular, has basically cost him the Presidency.

Worse yet, his Vice Presidential pick, Mike Pence, has been a gaffe machine on the trail, saying he will "fight for the most discriminated class - the white male", "Graham doesn't have the stones to do the job!", and, when asked how the Cotton economic policy will combat poverty, "Pizza is good!" Since mid-October, Cotton has done his best to keep Pence away from cameras and away from the podium, with his most recent speaking role being at a Republican fundraiser rather than an interview.

Graham has also done a very good job connecting Cotton to the President, attacking Cotton as a flip flopper on certain economic issues, and a red-button-pressing maniac on foreign policy. She's also run on her own policies, being an anti-war, fair trade, populist who gains high marks from just about every sect of voter. Former New Jersey Congressman Chris Smith, a Republican, endorsed her over Cotton for President, as has Former Michigan Governor Rick Snyder. Most Republican moderates, however, stayed on the party line.

Dark Red - Safe D
Red - Likely D
Light Red - Lean D
Grey - Toss-up
Light Blue - Lean R
Blue - Likely R
Dark Blue - Safe R

[Maxwell]

Election Day!

Senator Gwen Graham (D-FL)/Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA) - 53.1%, 375 EV's
Senator Tom Cotton (R-AR)/Governor Mike Pence (R-IN) - 44.9%, 163 EV's
Governor Gary Johnson (L-NM)/Dr. Robert Paul (L-TX) - 2.0%, 0 EV's

Major Senate Contests

30% - Pick-up
50% - Hold (Incumbent retired/primaried)
70% - Hold (by Incumbent)
Green - Run-Off

Arkansas
Lt. Gov. Tim Griffin faced off against Fmr. Lt. Gov. Bill Halter, and the race became surprisingly competitive. Governor Hutchinson continued to be unpopular, and Halter used that to his advantage, and painted Griffin as a stooge for big corporations. Griffin, meanwhile, painted Halter as a, you guessed it, tax and spend liberal. Griffin ended up with the win, though not by as much as many thought he would win by.

53% Lieutenant Governor Tim Griffin (R)
45% Former Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter (D)

Colorado
Expecting a brighter return, Interior Secretary Ken Salazar was expected to run a strong campaign against Senator Cory Gardner. Gardner, however, ran a fantastic campaign, while Salazar’s lethargic message made very few waves with voters. Gardner won re-election relatively easily.

56% Senator Cory Gardner (R)
42% Former Interior Secretary Ken Salazar (D)

Delaware
Governor Beau Biden and Swift Capital CEO Ed Harycki were in a cagematch for the Delaware Senate race. When Ken Simpler cracked open a double digit lead over Mark Denn in the Governors race, Harycki’s chances looked good, but as that race narrowed, advantage fell back to the Governor, and Biden won a solid victory, if unexpectedly close.

53% Governor Beau Biden (D)
44% Swift Capital CEO Ed Harycki (R)
 
Georgia
Senator David Perdue was one of the more vulnerable Senators when, not only was his approval ratings low, but Senator Gwen Graham had a real shot of winning the state. The Most Obnoxious Senator, according to Time Magazine, continually gaffed and ran ads that required him to take them back. Nevertheless, he effectively cast Wilson as a “liberal”, and brought down Wilson enough to take her on in the run-off election, where he has a far stronger shot. RUN-OFF

49% Former School Board Head Valarie Wilson (D)
47% Senator David Perdue (R)
4% Some Libertarian

Iowa
After trailing early on, Senator Joni Ernst has turned her situation around. State Senator Janet Peterson gave her a strong competition, but nevertheless had a stiff nature with Iowa voters, which compared unfavorably with Ernst’s ability to talk with voters. Ernst edged out her Democratic challenger in a triumph.

49% Senator Joni Ernst (R)
48% State Senator Janet Peterson (D)

Kansas
Despite opening a 7 point lead in October, the surprise of October was a negative for Congressman Greg Orman - one of the Republicans that Orman claimed to receive an endorsement wrote a rabid anti-Orman op-ed. An aged Nancy Kassebaum called Orman a “chronically dishonest individual who doesn’t deserve to be in the Senate”. Orman took a hit in the polls, but most thought he would still win. Nevertheless, Tim Huelskamp pulled to an upset and won in Kansas.

48% Congressman Tim Huelskamp (R)
45% Congressman Greg Orman (D)

Maine
In the first obvious Democratic pick-up of the night, Congresswoman Chellie Pingree faced off against Republican Chair Rick Bennett. Pingree ran an underwhelming campaign, but Bennett’s face as the leader of the Republican Party in the state was too notable, and she led him by high single digits and low double digits the whole campaign. Pingree performed about on expectations, and is the new Senator from Maine. D Pick Up!

54% Congresswoman Chellie Pingree (D)
44% Party Chairman Rick Bennett (R)

Minnesota
In the most embarrassing race for Democrats, John Marty made it out of a brutal primary with little money or infrastructure, and faced off against Congressman Erik Paulsen. Paulsen, a veteran of Congress, had a strong campaign apparatus and support from local Republicans and independents. Inspite of that, polls showed it a dead heat the whole time because Paulsen was never able to seal the deal with voters. Due to voter frustration, Former Congressman Tim Penny, in a lost hurrah, ran as the Independence canddiate, drawing form both candidates, but fatally, drawing the most from Marty. Paulsen managed to sneak a victory in a deep blue state by barely outperforming Cotton. R Pick Up!

46% Congressman Erik Paulsen (R)
44% State Senator John Marty (D)
8% Fmr. Congressman Tim Penny (I)

Montana
If you asked someone when Steve Daines was elected would he be one of the Democrats top targets in the next election, they would’ve given you a definitive no. However, Daines has run a weak, sleepy campaign that almost assumed re-election. He faced a stronger opponent than expected in Governor Steve Bullock, and Bullock pulled out with a major victory over Daines, pulling ahead of Graham in the state. D Pick Up!

51% Governor Steve Bullock (D)
47% Senator Steve Daines (R)

North Carolina
In one of the most contentious races of the cycle, Senator Thom Tillis and Raleigh Mayor Nancy McFarLane brutalized eachother with negative ads. By the end of it, Tillis had a 38% Approval rating, but McFarLane had a 36/52 favorable rating, making it basically a toss-up. However, voters were not willing to give the incumbent the benefit of the doubt, and McFarLane pulled a narrow win. D Pick Up!

49% Raleigh Mayor Nancy McFarLane (D)
48% Senator Thom Tillis (R)

Oregon
In an interesting race, Former Senator Gordon Smith decided to give the Senate one last go against his former rival Senator Jeff Merkley. Merkley, a liberal veteran in the Senate, attacked Smith as an archconservative, while Smith tried to craft an image of an independent Oreganian tired of Washington as usual. Smith got some leeway with that strategy, closing a double digit gap into the single digits, but was never able to break beyond 45% in the polls. Merkley pulled a closer than expected victory.

52% Senator Jeff Merkly (D)
46% Former Senator Gordon Smith (R)

Results to be continued...

[Brewer]

Senator Paulsen?...yuck.

[Maxwell]

Senator Paulsen?...yuck.

Hey, there's gotta be a twist somewhere!

I'll post Gubernatorial highlights and Congressional highlights in the next post, and then just nitty gritty results next up.

[Brewer]

Senator Paulsen?...yuck.

Hey, there's gotta be a twist somewhere!

I'll post Gubernatorial highlights and Congressional highlights in the next post, and then just nitty gritty results next up.

Ugh, I suppose. Absolutely love this timeline, keep it up!

[Maxwell]

Gubernatorial Elections

Delaware
A revolution of sorts occurred in Delaware with the candidacy of State Treasurer Ken Simpler. Simpler applied his same strategy in running for the Treasurer job to the Governorship - he would be a Governor for all Marylanders, and would work with the legislature without ambition. Attorney General Mark Denn attempted to take him down because of his pledge as Treasurer, but Delaware voters weren’t buying what Denn was selling. During early September, Simpler had as much as a twenty point lead, but Democrats went home after Simpler’s conservative economic plan was released, and Simpler won a narrower than expected five point win. R Pick Up!

51% State Treasurer Ken Simpler (R)
46% Attorney General Mark Denn (D)

Missouri
In a case of piss poor race relations, Tom Schweih finds himself with record low approval ratings, and Democrats recruit Senator Claire McCaskill in this battle. McCaskill herself isn’t super popular with Missouri voters, but was still considered a top recruit due to name recognition and an original high single digit lead over the Governor. Schweih, however, capitalized on McCaskill’s office hoping and her voting record, and as his numbers started to steadily improve, so did McCaskill’s numbers in the opposite direction. The incumbent Schweih won a solid victory, though only slightly over-performing Senator Cotton.

52% Governor Tom Schweih (R)
47% Senator Claire McCaskill (D)

Montana
State Senator Corey Stapleton stepped up the plate in Montana to face off against State Superintendent Denise Juneau. Polls had this race neck and neck most of the time, but Juneau’s last batch of ads backfired, and Stapleton’s strong appeal toward state gun owners, leading Stapleton to the Governor’s mansion. R Pick Up!

51% State Senator Corey Stapleton (R)
45% State Superintendent Denise Juneau (D)

New Hampshire
Hassan’s retirement led to an open race for Governor. Republicans faired better in recruiting than Democrats, and Chris Sununu defeated State Senator Donna Soucy by a solid margin. R Pick Up!

52% Executive Councillor Chris Sununu (R)
46% State Senator Donna Soucy (D)

Indiana
In one of the most peculiar races of the year, aging Fort Wayne Mayor Tom Henry faced off against Lieutenant Governor Sue Ellsperman, running as a referendum to the Governor that was running for President at the time. Combined with Pence’s mediocre approval ratings was Ellspermann’s very weak campaign, which catered to the far right and not much else. Henry won by a surprising margin to become Indiana’s first Democrat Governor in 16 years. D Pick Up!

54% Fort Wayne Mayor Tom Henry (D)
42% Lieutenant Governor Sue Ellspermann (R)

Vermont
Progressive Tim Ashe narrowly beat out other Democrats for the nomination for Vermont Governor, and faced off against Former State Auditor Tom Salmon. Ashe had a narrow advantage because, Vermont, but Salmon managed to win some disaffected Democrats, causing Ashe to not get the mandate he so desired. P Pick Up!

53% State Senator Tim Ashe (P)
45% Fmr. State Auditor Tom Salmon (R)

Washington
Former Congressman David Reichert, in a last hurrah, gave the Governorship another shot. He gained headway against Attorney General Brad Ferguson, who ran almost entirely on Seattle strongholds and avoided Republican areas. In the last batch of polls, Reichert pulled to a lead, but Washington once again came to the rescue and Ferguson won narrowly.

51% Attorney General Brad Ferguson (D)
49% Former Congressman David Reichert (R)

Major Congressional Races

Despite a major defeat of Tom Cotton, Democrats had hit their ceiling in Congress, and lost 10 seats this cycle. Republicans picked up 12 Democratic seats (AK-ALL, CA-10, CT-4, FL-10, IA-3, KS-3, MN-7, MT-ALL, NV-2, NC-7, OH-7, PA-15), but lost 2 seats in a very dramatic fashion (MI-11, UT-2). Democratic Incumbents in wary districts were fearing for their lives, but ultimately made it out alive mostly, still holding on to a 231-204 Majority.

Alaska’s At-Large (R+1)
Mallott ran a well-funded, well-organized campaign, but he was no match for the states politics and Bill Starr’s solid if workman-like effort.

52% Anchorage City Councilor Bill Starr (R)
45% Congressman Byron Mallott (D)

California’s 10th (R+1)
Eggman proved to be the beneficiary of the wave rather than a full time Congressman.

58% Former Congressman Jeff Denham (R)
42% Congressman Michael Eggman (D)

Connecticut’s 4th (R+1)
This one is a puzzler.

49.8% State Senator Kevin Kelly (R)
49.4% Bridgeport Mayor Bill Finch (D)

Florida’s 10th (R+1)
Soto could not hold on to this conservative district, especially with the RNCC backing Webster heartily.

50% Former Congressman Dan Webster (R)
45% Congressman Darren Soto (D)

Iowa’s 3rd (R+1)
Schultz revived his political career with this narrow surprise.

49% Former S.o.S. Matt Schultz (R)
47% Congressman Matt McCoy (D)

Michigan’s 11th (D+1)
The elderly Kerry Bentivolio gained a lot more steam than people expected, and Trott’s record rubbed a lot of people in the district the wrong way, with McKenzie being the beneficiary.

41% Counter Terrorism Advisor Bobby McKenzie (D)
38% Congressman Dave Trott (R)
16% Former Congressman Kerry Bentivolio (I)

Minnesota’s 7th (R+1)
Republicans finally recruited a competent challenger to Collin Peterson, and Peterson, despite his connection to the district, was finally defeated.

51% State Representative Mary Franson (R)
48% Congressman Collin Peterson (D)

Utah’s 2nd (D+1)
Excuse me?

48.03% State Senator Luz Robles (D)
47.99% Former State Senator Dan Liljenquist (R)

[Enderman]

Gardner 2024 anyone?

[The Other Castro]

What happened to Jim Himes from CT-4? Did he retire or something?

[GLPman]

Another great update

[Maxwell]

What happened to Jim Himes from CT-4? Did he retire or something?

Got implicated in some fraudulent behavior involving some donors from the finance sector, and chose to resign instead of face that. Finch proved to be a weak candidate, and the district is trending Republican.

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

Ellspermann is a moderate. I don't think she'd overly cater to the far right. Many of the far right in Indiana are more of the " muh God and guns" crowd. Surprisingly 7-8 percent of them vote Libertarian but Ellspermann would take the more religious crowd and that result would push her over the top defeating the Dem. the Dem bench is rather weak around here even in a timeline like this. Still an interesting take Max. 😊

[Maxwell]

Ellspermann is a moderate. I don't think she'd overly cater to the far right. Many of the far right in Indiana are more of the " muh God and guns" crowd. Surprisingly 7-8 percent of them vote Libertarian but Ellspermann would take the more religious crowd and that result would push her over the top defeating the Dem. the Dem bench is rather weak around here even in a timeline like this. Still an interesting take Max. 😊

It's sort of a perfect storm situation, and Joe Walsh used to be a pro-choice Republican moderate, so people change over time. Thank you for that info though, couldn't really find much on Ellspermann.

[Maxwell]

The Weeks Afterward



63% Favorable - 24% Unfavorable

After a tumultous and negative campaign, President-elect Gwen Graham rises from the ashes in the strongest Presidential victory since 1996, both in the popular and electoral vote. Democrats are calling the election a mandate for her agenda, with strong majorities remaining in the Senate and House, while Republicans note gains in the Governorships and in the House as signs that they aren't completely blocked out. Things are looking on the up and up for the Democratic agenda, which means pro-free trade Democrats are trying to move through trade compromises in the last minute, knowing President Romney will sign them and Graham won't. With a middling economy, Graham promises her first priority is budget reform, including tax credits for small businesses and low income people, a hike in the minimum wage, and more spending on job training programs, education, and infrastructure.

The Presidential ticket of Graham and Kaine both resign early, so as to give their Governors proper time to pick their successor. Florida Governor Patrick Murphy, with his own eyes on the Senate, picks State Senator Dwight Dudley for the seat. Dudley, age 66, is not considered a frontrunner for the seat in a Democratic primary even if we take Murphy out of the picture. Virginia Governor Mark Herring, meanwhile, went more serious with his take-over pick with Aneesh Chopra, a former Obama administration head and considered a competent candidate in a future election.

In Virginia and New Jersey, the first candidates for Governor have announced their intentions. On the Republican side, Attorney General Scott Rigell has already cleared the field, posting a 50 point lead over potential conservative challenger Dr. Mark Berg. On the Democratic side, they are hoping that Congressman Ralph Northam jumps in, but he has been notably "meh" on a potential Gubernatorial run, and Congressman John Foust, who will turn 70 before election day 2021, has been far more interested in a run. Meanwhile, New Jersey Governor Steven Fulop has done enough to not offend big wigs in the New Jersey Democratic establishment, while at the same time remain popular with those who elected him, and at a 59% approval rating, Fulop is a rare bird in New Jersey - a popular politician. Republicans have been struggling to find a competent candidate, but may have found one in State Assemblyman David Russo. Russo already faces a challenge from Bartender Jessica Wehtlich, but Wehtlich has raised no money and is running as basically a libertarian candidate, so Russo looks good for the nomination's sake.

Troop reduction has begun in Iraq, with the end of ground operations against ISIS beginning. Senator Tom Cotton, in his final days, has been pointedly steadfast in his opposition to this mission, even going as far to say of the leaving President Mitt Romney - "He's abandoning women and children in Iraq to save face in America, and that is utterly unacceptable". Romney himself has been too busy dodging fire from other sources to dodge Cotton - he's been fined for campaign finance violations for his 2016 Presidential campaign, and has been struggling in the last days with Congress to put together a final budget, combining cuts to wasteful programs with reforms of Social Security and Medicare. Unsurprisingly, he faces opposition from both sides - Senator Rand Paul calling the budget "piecemeal", and exiting Senator Al Franken calling it "an attack on American families".

52% U.S. Senator David Perdue (R)
48% Former School Board Head Valarie Wilson (D)

After a scare, U.S. Senator David Perdue prevailed in a close election against Valarie Wilson. The run-off proved to be brutal, with Wilson lobbing hits on Perdue's business experience and underwhelming performance in the Senate, while Perdue's running on his conservative record and some questionable racial undertones. Wilson won a surprisingly high amount of white votes, but not nearly enough to beat Perdue, and Perdue will be going back to the Senate.

List of U.S. Senators

Alabama - Martha Roby (R)
Alabama - Jeff Sessions (R)
Alaska - Leslie McGuire (R)
Alaska - Dan Sullivan (R)
Arizona - David Schweikert (R)
Arizona - Krysten Sinema (D)
Arkansas - John Boozman (R)
Arkansas - Tim Griffin (R)
California - Eric Garcetti (D)
California - John Chiang (D)
Colorado - Michael Bennet (D)
Colorado - Cory Gardner (R)
Connecticut - Chris Murphy (D)
Connecticut - Richard Blumenthal (D)
Delaware - Tom Carper (D)
Delaware - Beau Biden (D)
Florida - Bill Nelson (D)
Florida - Dwight Dudley (D)
Georgia - Johnny Isakson (R)
Georgia - David Perdue (R)
Hawaii - Mazie Hirono (D)
Hawaii - Brian Schatz (D)
Idaho - Clifford Bayer (R)
Idaho - Raul Labrador (R)
Illinois - Tom Dart (D)
Illinois - Cheri Bustos (D)
Indiana - Marlin Stutzman (R)
Indiana - Greg Ballard (R)
Iowa - Chuck Grassley (R)
Iowa - Joni Ernst (R)
Kansas - Tim Huelskamp (R)
Kansas - Jerry Moran (R)
Kentucky - Mitch McConnell (R)
Kentucky - Rand Paul (R)
Louisiana - Bill Cassidy (R)
Louisiana - Charles Boustany (R)
Maine - Chelli Pingree (D)
Maine - Angus King (I)
Maryland - Ben Cardin (D)
Maryland - Chris Van Hollen (D)
Massachusetts - Elizabeth Warren (D)
Massachusetts - Seth Moulton (D)
Michigan - Debbie Stabenow (D)
Michigan - Gary Peters (D)
Minnesota - Amy Klobuchar (D)
Minnesota - Erik Paulsen (R)
Mississippi - Stacey Pickering (R)
Mississippi - Roger Wicker (R)
Missouri - Claire McCaskill (D)
Missouri - Roy Blunt (R)
Montana - Jon Tester (D)
Montana - Steve Bullock (D)
Nebraska - Deb Fischer (R)
Nebraska - Ben Sasse (R)
Nevada - Mark Hutchison (R)
Nevada - Catherine Masto (D)
New Hampshire - Jeanne Shaheen (D)
New Hampshire - Kelly Ayotte (R)
New Jersey - Phillip Murphy (D)
New Jersey - Dawn Zimmer (D)
New Mexico - Tom Udall (D)
New Mexico - Martin Heinrich (D)
New York - Chuck Schumer (D)
New York - Kristen Gillibrand (D)
North Carolina - Nancy McFarLane (D)
North Carolina - Janet Cowell (D)
North Dakota - John Hoeven (R)
North Dakota - Heidi Heitkamp (D)
Ohio - Rob Portman (R)
Ohio - Sherrod Brown (D)
Oklahoma - Jim Bridenstine (R)
Oklahoma - James Lankford (R)
Oregon - Ron Wyden (D)
Oregon - Jeff Merkley (D)
Pennslyvania - Pat Toomey (R)
Pennslyvania - Michael J. Stack (D)
Rhode Island - Clay Pell (D)
Rhode Island - Sheldon Whitehouse (D)
South Carolina - Trey Gowdy (R)
South Carolina - Tim Scott (R)
South Dakota - John Thune (R)
South Dakota - Mike Rounds (R)
Tennessee - Mark Green (R)
Tennessee - Bill Haslam (R)
Texas - John Cornyn (R)
Texas - Julian Castro (D)
Utah - Mike Lee (R)
Utah - Doug Owens (D)
Vermont - Patrick Leahy (D)
Vermont - Bernie Sanders (I)
Virginia - Mark Warner (D)
Virginia - Aneesh Chopra (D)
Washington - Patty Murray (D)
Washington - Maria Cantwell (D)
West Virginia - Shelley Capito (R)
West Virginia - Carte Goodwin (D)
Wisconsin - Tammy Baldwin (D)
Wisconsin - Mary Burke (D)
Wyoming - Mike Enzi (R)
Wyoming - John Barrasso (R)

[Maxwell]

Leadership Battles - Minority Whip Cornyn and Minority Leader McConnell Ousted!

After three consecutive election cycles of Senate losses, Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and Minority Whip John Cornyn are both ousted from their leadership roles, with Republican Senators citing frustration with Republican strategy, both electorally and Senate-wise. A strong segment of Establishment Republicans and Tea Party Republicans form together to beat back the leadership, and agree to a compromise - one of each will go to the top rungs of leadership. Question is, which one goes where? Well, we find out today that Minority Leader will be South Dakota Senator John Thune, considered one of the most conservative members of the body, and Minority Whip will be Nevada Senator Mark Hutchison, a moderate and one of the fastest rising members of the Senate. Democratic leadership remained - Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, though Majority Whip Dick Durbin's retirement led way to a small battle, won by the activist segment of the party, giving the rise of Majority Whip Elizabeth Warren.

In the House, things were less brutal, with Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy staying put with Minority Whip Steve Scalise, despite some talk of Scalise and the conservative faction seeking to oust Mr. McCarthy. Democrats kept on with Speaker of the House Xavier Beccera, though the retirement of Steny Hoyer allowed for Florida Congresswoman Debbie Wasserman-Schultz to take over as Majority Leader and New Mexico Congressman Ben Ray Lujan to take over as Majority Whip.

Senate Leadership
Majority Leader - Chuck Schumer (D-NY)
Minority Leader - John Thune (R-SD)
Majority Whip - Elizabeth Warren (D-MA)
Minority Whip - Mark Hutchison (R-NV)

House Leadership
Speaker of the House - Xavier Beccerra (D-CA)
Majority Leader - Debbie Wasserman-Schultz (D-FL)
Minority Leader - Kevin McCarthy (R-CA)
Majority Whip - Ben Ray Lujan (D-NM)
Minority Whip - Steve Scalise (R-LA)

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

Ellspermann is a moderate. I don't think she'd overly cater to the far right. Many of the far right in Indiana are more of the " muh God and guns" crowd. Surprisingly 7-8 percent of them vote Libertarian but Ellspermann would take the more religious crowd and that result would push her over the top defeating the Dem. the Dem bench is rather weak around here even in a timeline like this. Still an interesting take Max. 😊

It's sort of a perfect storm situation, and Joe Walsh used to be a pro-choice Republican moderate, so people change over time. Thank you for that info though, couldn't really find much on Ellspermann.

Look at who is the current governor of Indiana? Pence is a Tea Party darling. I bet it was written to be a perfect storm.

[Maxwell]

2021 - Easy Rider



I, Gwen Graham, do solemnly swear...

President Graham Approvals
57% Approve
40% Disapprove

As troops withdraw from Iraq, economic prosperity hits its highest levels, and President Graham has a very uncontroversial year. Her state of the union and inaugerual address are well received and widely watched, as she demands for bipartisan action to improve education, improve the economy, balance the budget, and pass trade reforms. She had some notable policy achievements, mostly due to a strong relationship with Minority Whip Mark Hutchinson.

Legislative Accomplishments and Happenings
- After 42 states legalize gay marriage, the repeal of the Defense of Marriage Act passes easily and is signed by the President.
- One of Graham's campaign promises, a complete overhaul of Trade Agreements, is largely stalled in Congress, though some restrictions with China passes along party lines with some notable exceptions (Plenty of southern Republicans voting for it and Chuck Schumer leading the Democratic business wing against it).
- Economic reforms pass congress with the help of Republican leadership. She doesn't get everything she wants - some reforms are watered down, including a rejection of a good deal of stimulus spending - but a stimulus bill of infrastructure spending and tax credits is passed.
- Graham is sided by notable members of her cabinet as she talks about action on lowering police violence and militarization, after continued police violence in Michigan. She is supported by certain Republicans such as Senator Rand Paul, but the bill is held up by elder members of the Judiciary Committee.
- Graham announces a complete withdraw of ground forces from Iraq, though still continues to use the military budget to seek out and defeat terror without troops. Terror in the region begins to die down.
- President Graham meets with Russian Prime Minister Putin, as he continues to be a thorn in the side of the U.S., and both agree to some diplomatic changes in exchange for lowered aggression from the Russians toward neighboring countries. Considered a strong diplomatic success for the U.S.

In a mixed but ultimatley good year for Republicans, Virginia and New Jersey produced polar opposite results. Attorney General Scott Rigell won an easy election to become Virginia's next Governor, squashing Congressman John Foust. Republicans also won the Lieutenant Governor position, with unpopular Pete Snyder holding on to Rigell's coat tails. State Rep. Howie Lind, however, wasn't able to do the same, and U.S. Attorney Dana Boente picked up the attorney generals spot. Rigell won 55-42, Snyder won 51-46, and Boente won 50-48.

Meanwhile, Governor Steven Fulop was an easy pick for re-election. Many thought he would face the scalding hit from the party establishment, but when they failed, backed the reform-minded candidate over any sort of Republican, almost guaranteeing him re-election. The original establishment candidate for the Republicans lost the primary in an uproar to Jessica Whetlich, a libertarian bartender who called for legalization of marijuana, elimination of the state income tax, and a complete privatization of the state toll roads. Whetlich lost in a landslide, but ran a charismatic campaign that endeared her to more voters than many expected, ending with narrowly positive favorables in spite of her policy stands. Fulop won 59-37.