If a Supreme Court justice retires or dies in the next two years…..

[Mr. Morden]

If a Supreme Court justice retires or dies in the next two years, will his/her successor be confirmed by the Senate, or will the vacancy drag out at least into 2017?  Keep in mind, the last time we had a Supreme Court vacancy when the presidency and Senate were controlled by opposite parties was 1991 with the Clarence Thomas appointment, so we have yet to see how such a scenario will play during the current, more partisan, era.

I suppose if Ginsburg retires, then her replacement would presumably be of a similar ideological bent, and it wouldn't shift the balance on the court.  But imagine if one of the conservative justices were to drop dead in January 2015.  A likely Obama-nominated replacement would have the potential to shift the ideological balance on the court quite substantially, which is why the GOP Senate might just delay the confirmation vote indefinitely.

[Landslide Lyndon]

If Obama nominates a demonstrably qualified individual, especially if it's a woman or a minority (I have a hunch it might be Jacqueline Nguyen), then the Republicans will be in a bind because their obstruction will reinforce the worst stereotypes about them and will inflame the Dem coalition.

But let's see first how the national environment will be by then. If the polls are promising for the Republican contenders, then the senate will stall the process until the election.
But if Hillary continues to dominate like now, then who knows how they will react?

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

After seeing five ellipsis I was sure Winfield made this thread.

[Mr. Morden]

After seeing five ellipsis I was sure Winfield made this thread.

Hey, I tried to fit the full sentence in the subject line, but it wouldn't fit.

[krazen1211]

The Schumer precedent mandates that it stay vacant till 2017.

[Mehmentum]

Both Kagan got 5 Republicans to vote for her, Sotamayor got 8.  I suspect a competent center left nominee could pass the Senate as long as it isn't a replacement for one of the conservative justices.

[anvi]

...the GOP Senate might just delay the confirmation vote indefinitely.

Yes, I believe they would.  I don't believe they'd even consider doing otherwise.

[bedstuy]

Think about this, we might not get a new Supreme Court justice until we have either a Democratic Senate or a Republican President.  We'll just have to muddle through with 7 or 8 Supreme Court justices.

[King]

If a Justice dies, the seat will most likely remain empty.

[Paul Kemp]

What's the longest period of time in which a seat on the Supreme Court has been vacant?

[bedstuy]

What's the longest period of time in which a seat on the Supreme Court has been vacant?

What do you mean by that?  It's just tradition to have 9 Justices.  Historically, we've had both more than 9 and fewer than 9, until we sort of settled on nine.  So, that question doesn't really make sense.

Has a party ever flat out refused to consider a President's Supreme Court nominees under any circumstances?  I'm pretty sure that's never happened in recent history.

[Paul Kemp]

What's the longest period of time in which a seat on the Supreme Court has been vacant?

What do you mean by that?  It's just tradition to have 9 Justices.  Historically, we've had both more than 9 and fewer than 9, until we sort of settled on nine.  So, that question doesn't really make sense.

Let me rephrase that for you: since the tradition was set to have nine justices 100+ years ago by congress, what is the longest time in between a member leaving/dying and the successor officially taking the seat on the court? Is there any precedent for the court to serve with less than nine in that timeframe?

Was it that hard to figure out instead of playing some unpleasant semantics game? Unless you were just looking to display your knowledge of facts that most here are aware of.

[DemPGH]

If Ginsberg would retire I think there would be a lot bluster, but they'd probably confirm someone reasonably close to her. If Kennedy retired, OTOH, I really do have to wonder. The line would go like this: "We have a mandate from the American people to put a check on the Obama agenda, and that includes liberal judges," so all bets would be off. I think they'd reject or block a lot of the ones he would pick, but I don't know about blanket refusing to consider them. That would be taking matters really into uncharted territory, but the GOP is not afraid to take matters there, so who knows.

[SPC]

The Republican Senate would narrowly confirm any qualified replacement for Ginsburg or any centrist replacement for the five conservatives. However, Obama will purposefully nominate the Democratic Harriet Myers in order to accuse the Republican Congress of obstruction when they inevitably fail to confirm said nominee.

[King]

Let me rephrase that for you: since the tradition was set to have nine justices 100+ years ago by congress, what is the longest time in between a member leaving/dying and the successor officially taking the seat on the court? Is there any precedent for the court to serve with less than nine in that timeframe?

It doesn't appear to be longer than a month for any deaths.  Retirements/resignations usually hedge "upon confirmation of my successor" in their letter so there is no vacancy.

[King]

The Republican Senate would narrowly confirm any qualified replacement for Ginsburg or any centrist replacement for the five conservatives. However, Obama will purposefully nominate the Democratic Harriet Myers in order to accuse the Republican Congress of obstruction when they inevitably fail to confirm said nominee.

Or, more likely, Obama will nominate a qualified centrist replacement and the GOP will dig up that the nominee once had a subscription to a magazine that ran an article by an author whose wife is a self-described socialist black panther. Therefore, they are the Democratic Harriet Myers and must immediately withdraw.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

It took over two years for Henry Baldwin to be replaced in 1844-1846.  That was due to a combination of factors.

In the modern era, it took over a year and two rejected nominations for Nixon to finally replace Abe Fortas in 1969-1970.  That's because Nixon kept trying to nominate Southerners with a questionable history with respect to civil rights, something that probably ought to be brought up the next time we get someone claiming that Nixon's Southern Strategy wasn't intended to appeal to those uneasy about the civil rights movement.

[krazen1211]

What's the longest period of time in which a seat on the Supreme Court has been vacant?

This seat would be quickly filled if Rafael Cruz was nominated.

[angus]

After seeing five ellipsis I was sure Winfield made this thread.

Actually, I think it is only one and two-thirds of an ellipsis.  

I think it very much depends upon whom Obama might nominate, and how willing he is to reconsider if they start to make noises about stalling the approval process.  I think y'all are being too hard on Obama, and upon the congress.  My guess is that Obama is very intelligent, and in spite of his flaws, wants to solidify his legacy.  His interests lie in working with the congress, and their interests lie in working with him.  My guess is that Obama will appoint in such a way that it gets approved.

[King]

What's the longest period of time in which a seat on the Supreme Court has been vacant?

This seat would be quickly filled if Rafael Cruz was nominated.

And if the cashier just hands over the bread, no one will get hurt.

[7,052,770]

It really doesn't matter who Obama picks because republicans will declare the nominee to be a Marxist regardless.  Therefore he should only consider far-left judges,  especially after he's put two center-left judges on there already.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Obama should nominate himself as a nomination and simultaneously put Biden up for ambassador for Mexico or some place. That means the GOP will have to go along with his plans, because they'll be shot of Obama and have a chance to prove themselves in the White House for two years with Boehner.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Obama should nominate himself as a nomination and simultaneously put Biden up for ambassador for Mexico or some place. That means the GOP will have to go along with his plans, because they'll be shot of Obama and have a chance to prove themselves in the White House for two years with Boehner.

It doesn't have to be Boehner. The Speaker of the House could temporarily be someone else, and the Speaker doesn't have to be a member of the House.

[morgieb]

If it's Ginsburg or Breyer, as long as he or she is qualified the Republicans will probably confirm them relucantly.

If it's Kennedy or Scalia though....that's when it becomes a clusterf**k. Even a centrist may not pass, particularly if they are replacing the latter.

[anvi]

I don't think it matters who it would be that retires or dies before the end of Obama's term; the Pubs will leave it vacant.  Before they know who the next prez will be, why even maintain a 5-4 split on the court with a potential swing vote in play on important decisions, rather than widen the margin further by hoping for their next guy in the WH to appoint another young justice?