So what happened in Colorado?

[henster]

I'm hearing provisional ballots may push this race into recount territory possibly...

[Boston Bread]

I think we can say Udall wasn't a massive screwup compared to the results in other states. If only Gardner didn't jump in Udall would have defeated... wait for it.... KEN BUCK!!!!!.
Next time, pass gun control through referenda. The "war on women"/social-issue attacks turned out not be a big misplay but it didn't give enough reason for young people and minorities to support the democrat specifically so mix it up with a positive economic message.

[Gass3268]

I'm hearing provisional ballots may push this race into recount territory possibly...

Seriously? There is enough for Udall to gain 2.5? That would be amazing if true.

[Matty]

Why was this race called? Gardner only up 50k with around 1.5% of the vote still out.

[Panda Express]

I'm hearing provisional ballots may push this race into recount territory possibly...

Seriously? There is enough for Udall to gain 2.5? That would be amazing if true.

Not, not seriously. It will be between a 2 and 2.5 point victory for Gardner.

[Matty]

Yea, I was wrong, Looking at the counties still reporting, they are mainly gardner ones. This race was A LOT closer than I thought it would be

[KCDem]

About 160,000 ballots left to count. It'll tighten and be heartbreakingly close

[Matty]

Based on the counties that still haven't reported 100%, Gardner's lead is likely to expand.

[KCDem]

Based on the counties that still haven't reported 100%, Gardner's lead is likely to expand.

That's not how it works. 100% reported doesn't mean there aren't more ballots to be counted, like provisionals etc. Like all VBM states the Democratic margins increase as the count continues. Udall loses by 2, maybe less. Hick could reach 50%.

[Matty]

Why hasn't the Udall side made  a statement about the sudden toss up status of this race?

[Vosem]

Why hasn't the Udall side made  a statement about the sudden toss up status of this race?

Because, whatever the ultimate margin might end up being, it's very clear that Udall has lost. The Udall side has dematerialized.

[Matty]

If KCdem is right and 160,000 votes still have to be counted, then the race is certainly NOT over. The lead is only 50k.

[henster]

If KCdem is right and 160,000 votes still have to be counted, then the race is certainly NOT over. The lead is only 50k.

It means Udall would've absolutely won had just ran a better campaign and CO certainly isn't trending red either.

[moderatevoter]

I think it shows that while the Colorado Republicans are certainly catching up, the CO Democrats' ground game is still very strong.

[Gass3268]

If KCdem is right and 160,000 votes still have to be counted, then the race is certainly NOT over. The lead is only 50k.

It means Udall would've absolutely won had just ran a better campaign and CO certainly isn't trending red either.

Even a slightly better campaign.

[Matty]

Why aren't the networks talking about the sudden uncertainty in the status of who won this race?

[Sbane]

Why aren't the networks talking about the sudden uncertainty in the status of who won this race?

Because even if KCDem's numbers are right, Udall would have to get 62.5% of the two party vote to overtake Gardner. And since some of the ballots will be for independents, he actually needs a greater margin than that. The race may get down to 1.5% or so but Gardner still wins. That also means I called this race absolutely perfectly.

[Tender Branson]

About 160,000 ballots left to count. It'll tighten and be heartbreakingly close

Source ?

The last thing I've heard was that only Adams and Denver are not fully counted and that Adams has only 7.000 ballots left to count.

[Person Man]

This update seals up the state house and gives us 50 50 odds of keeping the state senate.

[Lief 🗽]

Colorado's a swing state (not purple-blue like MI, not purple-red like MT, but pure purple), Udall ran a terrible campaign focused on only one issue, and Gardner was an excellent candidate who will be a great Senator. Had it been Scott Gessler facing Hick instead of Beauprez, that race would have gone to the republicans as well.

If Colorado were a pure purple swing state, and Udall ran a terrible campaign and Gardner ran an excellent one, Gardner would have won by more than 2.5% IMO. Iowa is a better example of a pure swing state, especially because of its demographics (white working class) compared to Colorado's.

What state is Colorado most like then?

Actually I've been thinking about it and I think the best comparison is Virginia. 2013 in Virginia and 2014 in Colorado are very similar. It looks like Democrats have figured out how to squeeze out 49% coalitions in both states, unless the Republicans nominate a truly excellent candidate.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'm hearing provisional ballots may push this race into recount territory possibly...

Like how provisional ballots were going to save Kerry in Ohio (and thus overall) in 2004?

[backtored]

This update seals up the state house and gives us 50 50 odds of keeping the state senate.

State Senate is flipped to the GOP.

As far as the OP's question, Colorado is deeply polarized and looks perfectly purple even though it is really more like red AND blue. It doesn't swing a whole lot, but rather comes down to turnout and a handful of undecideds. It was the best night Republicans have had in Colorado in 12 years. Obviously the state will likely be even more competitive going forward, as the state GOP proved that it really can win the big one with a very conservative candidate that the base finds acceptable.

[Lief 🗽]

If that was the best night the CO GOP is capable of, then yes, it's still a Lean D state.

And the GOP hasn't taken the state senate yet. They're still counting votes: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kvSCx7-trOot0Y0y6Et_KMuu4NRQQtSRm5i0kXRx7JA/edit#gid=0

[DS0816]

Does anyone have insight into what happened with the political coalitions in Colorado? Again, just looking at the bellwethers, one would think Udall lost by just a point.

I haven't been very politically active the last two years (work has been busy), but the handful of committed fracking opponents I'm friends with felt that they'd been thrown under the bus by the state Democratic party. They were so angry when I spoke with them a few weeks ago, that if they voted, they voted Green, not D.

Latest exit-poll numbers from Colorado U.S. Senate and Governor indicate combined Republican-vs.-Democratic vote will be no more than 96 percent. So often they usually combine for 98 or maybe even 99 percent. So, candidates outside the two major political parties were able to account for, say, 3 percent of the statewide vote from 2014 Colorado.

[jd1433]

One thing is certain- Democrats need Colorado and won't be able to win without it in 2016. When other states get obliterated by the Republican Blitzkrieg, they were able to do something.

I don't think so. The Electoral College is skewed in Democratic favor. The following is a very realistic win for Democrats. This is a win where Democrats lose the popular vote by about 1%.

I personally do think that the normal pecking order of these states has both Virginia and Wisconsin going GOP before Colorado would.... obviously the style of candidates have an effect.

I think 2016 would go Wisconsin most GOP, than Virginia, and then Colorado if your looking at only those 3 states.