OK, what happened in Maryland???

[Gass3268]

The inevitable death of the Red Line

Purple?

Sounds like he might be more in favor of that.

[Kraxner]

Any marylander's willing to tell us about the state your economy?

News articles told me that maryland has yet to create net jobs since 2008 and the "liberal tax hikes" enacted by O'Malley to please progressives and be a covert sh**tck to appeal to them in a possible run for the primary, might have upset many white democrats into voting for hogan.

[IceSpear]

I'm still shocked by this. I mean, 2002 was considered a perfect storm for Republicans, and they still only won by 4 points. This time, they won by 9 points, when the state is more diverse and more Democratic than it was 12 years ago. Truly insane.

No, Hogan won 52-47, that's 5 points.

Yeah, I posted that before the counting error was corrected.

[Timothy87]

Latest count in Maryland - includes first count of absentees and provisionals in all counties:

Governor
Hogan 866,792 (51.35%)
Brown 792,259 (46.94%)
Other 28,849 (1.71%)

Change from 2010
Rep    +90,473
Dem   -252,702
Other  -7,751
Total   -169,980

Turnout
1,707,625 cards cast out of 3,701,654 active, eligible voters (46.13%)
1,687,900 votes counted out of 1,707,625 ballots (19,725 cards cast blank)

Total turnout by county (all cards cast)
Kent 60.25
Queen Anne's 58.16
Talbot 57.58
Carroll 56.27
Harford 54.68 (My home county)
Calvert 54.14
Howard 52.85
Worcester 52.58
Frederick 52.42
Dorchester 50.49
Anne Arundel 50.39
Baltimore 49.99
Saint Mary's 49.72
Caroline 49.34
Somerset 43.13
Allegany 48.27
Garrett 47.52
Charles 46.46
Wicomico 44.64
Cecil 42.93
Washington 42.79
Montgomery 41.91
Prince George's 39.59
Baltimore City 36.39

Won't know party level turnout for a month until the SBOE releases their post election reports but all indications are that GOP walloped Democrats in turnout

A whopping 10,600 of the blank votes were in Montgomery County.  Seems strange to me to have such a high undervote.  Maybe it was a counting error.

Wednesday/Thursday AP and other news outlets were incorrectly reporting Hogan at 193K votes in Anne Arundel County instead of the correct tally of 113K (at the time).  This is why it mistakenly looked like a 9 pt win instead of 4 pts.

[Dixie Reborn]

Maryland will soon be a solid Republican state.

[warandwar]

Any marylander's willing to tell us about the state your economy?

News articles told me that maryland has yet to create net jobs since 2008 and the "liberal tax hikes" enacted by O'Malley to please progressives and be a covert sh**tck to appeal to them in a possible run for the primary, might have upset many white democrats into voting for hogan.

The essential situation is that like nationwide, jobs are here but people aren't feeling the recovery, income wise. Taxes were seen as just taking away money (some of O'Malley's taxes were regressive).

You're forgetting about a certain event last year that rhymes with moverment mutdown
and calling them "O'malley's taxes" is ridiculous, considering the power the legislature has.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Easy: Brown ran a lousy campaign.

[Calthrina950]

This is a old thread, but it's hilarious to read many of the hysterical responses on this in hindsight, given how Hogan has consistently been among the nation's most popular Governors and has governed as a moderate pragmatist. Reading this, you'd think Hogan was a fire-breathing, extremist demagogue.

[Roll Roons]

This is a old thread, but it's hilarious to read many of the hysterical responses on this in hindsight, given how Hogan has consistently been among the nation's most popular Governors and has governed as a moderate pragmatist. Reading this, you'd think Hogan was a fire-breathing, extremist demagogue.

Also how everyone was convinced he'd be gone after one term like Bob Ehrlich. He is very underrated, and I can't wait to go work on his presidential campaign in 2024.

[Calthrina950]

This is a old thread, but it's hilarious to read many of the hysterical responses on this in hindsight, given how Hogan has consistently been among the nation's most popular Governors and has governed as a moderate pragmatist. Reading this, you'd think Hogan was a fire-breathing, extremist demagogue.

Also how everyone was convinced he'd be gone after one term like Bob Ehrlich. He is very underrated, and I can't wait to go work on his presidential campaign in 2024.

I'm skeptical that Hogan can win the Republican nomination, given the direction in which the Party's electorate has turned, but I certainly wouldn't have an issue voting for him, if he made it that far. But then again, four years is an eternity in politics, so we'll see what happens. His reelection in 2018 was very impressive, given the "wave" environment for Democrats in urban and suburban America, of which Maryland is so heavily a part.

[warandwar]

This is a old thread, but it's hilarious to read many of the hysterical responses on this in hindsight, given how Hogan has consistently been among the nation's most popular Governors and has governed as a moderate pragmatist. Reading this, you'd think Hogan was a fire-breathing, extremist demagogue.

He is absolutely a demagogue. A smart and sophisticated one, but a demagogue. www.baltimoresun.com/citypaper/bcpnews-boss-hg-larry-hogan-has-baltimore-right-where-he-wants-it-20150707-story.html

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I'm completely shocked. I don't even know what to say.

I do.  How's this?

Bwahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!

*laughing at proto-Marxist Democrats*

Christ, I'm glad this guy hasn't popped back here in 4 years

[Calthrina950]

This is a old thread, but it's hilarious to read many of the hysterical responses on this in hindsight, given how Hogan has consistently been among the nation's most popular Governors and has governed as a moderate pragmatist. Reading this, you'd think Hogan was a fire-breathing, extremist demagogue.

He is absolutely a demagogue. A smart and sophisticated one, but a demagogue. www.baltimoresun.com/citypaper/bcpnews-boss-hg-larry-hogan-has-baltimore-right-where-he-wants-it-20150707-story.html

I don't understand the point that you're trying to make here. Are you saying that Hogan's infrastructure policy shows that he's deliberately trying to undermine Maryland's minority communities? Considering that 82% of Democrats as of May 2020 approve of Hogan's performance, a higher number than he enjoys among Republicans (according to this poll: https://baltimore.cbslocal.com/2020/05/26/may-gonzales-poll-hogan-trump-approval/), I don't think they would agree. You also seem to be implying that he tried to use his cancer diagnosis for his own political benefit-which I find to be a disturbing insinuation. But then again, there are always going to be partisans who will oppose political figures of the opposite orientation from them, regardless of how well such an individual has performed in office.

[Indy Texas]

This is a old thread, but it's hilarious to read many of the hysterical responses on this in hindsight, given how Hogan has consistently been among the nation's most popular Governors and has governed as a moderate pragmatist. Reading this, you'd think Hogan was a fire-breathing, extremist demagogue.

Also how everyone was convinced he'd be gone after one term like Bob Ehrlich. He is very underrated, and I can't wait to go work on his presidential campaign in 2024.

I'm skeptical that Hogan can win the Republican nomination, given the direction in which the Party's electorate has turned, but I certainly wouldn't have an issue voting for him, if he made it that far. But then again, four years is an eternity in politics, so we'll see what happens. His reelection in 2018 was very impressive, given the "wave" environment for Democrats in urban and suburban America, of which Maryland is so heavily a part.

It kind of reminds me of Mike Beebe getting reelected AR Governor in an uneventful landslide even as the rest of his party was collapsing and Democrats in comparable places were being obliterated.

[Hope For A New Era]

It kind of reminds me of Mike Beebe getting reelected AR Governor in an uneventful landslide even as the rest of his party was collapsing and Democrats in comparable places were being obliterated.

Seriously though, how on earth did he manage that? He was literally the only southern Democrat who survived.

[Calthrina950]

It kind of reminds me of Mike Beebe getting reelected AR Governor in an uneventful landslide even as the rest of his party was collapsing and Democrats in comparable places were being obliterated.

Seriously though, how on earth did he manage that? He was literally the only southern Democrat who survived.

Arkansas does stick out as a sore thumb on the 2010 gubernatorial results map, and Beebe's result is even more impressive when you consider that Blanche Lincoln was getting destroyed by more than 20% on the exact same ballot! And Beebe managed to win every single county in the state.

[warandwar]

This is a old thread, but it's hilarious to read many of the hysterical responses on this in hindsight, given how Hogan has consistently been among the nation's most popular Governors and has governed as a moderate pragmatist. Reading this, you'd think Hogan was a fire-breathing, extremist demagogue.

He is absolutely a demagogue. A smart and sophisticated one, but a demagogue. www.baltimoresun.com/citypaper/bcpnews-boss-hg-larry-hogan-has-baltimore-right-where-he-wants-it-20150707-story.html

I don't understand the point that you're trying to make here. Are you saying that Hogan's infrastructure policy shows that he's deliberately trying to undermine Maryland's minority communities? Considering that 82% of Democrats as of May 2020 approve of Hogan's performance, a higher number than he enjoys among Republicans (according to this poll: https://baltimore.cbslocal.com/2020/05/26/may-gonzales-poll-hogan-trump-approval/), I don't think they would agree. You also seem to be implying that he tried to use his cancer diagnosis for his own political benefit-which I find to be a disturbing insinuation. But then again, there are always going to be partisans who will oppose political figures of the opposite orientation from them, regardless of how well such an individual has performed in office.

I know my home state. Some poll from the height of COVID does not prove your case one bit. Hogan ran a campaign based on suburban and exurban resentment - not just of Bmore, but of some MoCo suburbs as well. Then the Bmore Rebellion hit amd Hogan realized he could bring MoCo Democrats into the fold by sending in the troops and arresting all the scary Black Men. There are some who are still in jail. Afterwards, Hogan revealed his plans to help "heal" Baltimore - tearing down vacanr houses. You think people didn't get the message? That their land, their lives were worthless? C'mon!
Since then Hogan has spread lies after lies about Baltimore and about teachers. Many Maryland Democrats were too willing to go along with his trashing of a plan to adress the unbelieveable inequities in Maryland schooling. Not to mention he was very much an ally in the fights to keep MoCo and HoCo schools segregated. The spectre of Freddie Grey continues to shape Maryland politics, and Hogan is cunning enough to realize this...

[Calthrina950]

This is a old thread, but it's hilarious to read many of the hysterical responses on this in hindsight, given how Hogan has consistently been among the nation's most popular Governors and has governed as a moderate pragmatist. Reading this, you'd think Hogan was a fire-breathing, extremist demagogue.

He is absolutely a demagogue. A smart and sophisticated one, but a demagogue. www.baltimoresun.com/citypaper/bcpnews-boss-hg-larry-hogan-has-baltimore-right-where-he-wants-it-20150707-story.html

I don't understand the point that you're trying to make here. Are you saying that Hogan's infrastructure policy shows that he's deliberately trying to undermine Maryland's minority communities? Considering that 82% of Democrats as of May 2020 approve of Hogan's performance, a higher number than he enjoys among Republicans (according to this poll: https://baltimore.cbslocal.com/2020/05/26/may-gonzales-poll-hogan-trump-approval/), I don't think they would agree. You also seem to be implying that he tried to use his cancer diagnosis for his own political benefit-which I find to be a disturbing insinuation. But then again, there are always going to be partisans who will oppose political figures of the opposite orientation from them, regardless of how well such an individual has performed in office.

I know my home state. Some poll from the height of COVID does not prove your case one bit. Hogan ran a campaign based on suburban and exurban resentment - not just of Bmore, but of some MoCo suburbs as well. Then the Bmore Rebellion hit amd Hogan realized he could bring MoCo Democrats into the fold by sending in the troops and arresting all the scary Black Men. There are some who are still in jail. Afterwards, Hogan revealed his plans to help "heal" Baltimore - tearing down vacanr houses. You think people didn't get the message? That their land, their lives were worthless? C'mon!
Since then Hogan has spread lies after lies about Baltimore and about teachers. Many Maryland Democrats were too willing to go along with his trashing of a plan to adress the unbelieveable inequities in Maryland schooling. Not to mention he was very much an ally in the fights to keep MoCo and HoCo schools segregated. The spectre of Freddie Grey continues to shape Maryland politics, and Hogan is cunning enough to realize this...

I didn't know that Maryland was your home state, and it isn't "some poll". I despise how many here on Atlas seem to reject or uphold polls based upon the results that they desire. If Hogan's policies were so destructive to minority communities, why did he receive an unprecedented (for a Republican) share of the black vote in his 2018 reelection? Obviously, there has to be something more there than you conceive. And as I recall, the riots which occurred in Baltimore several years back required his intervention, because the Mayor (Stephanie Rawlings-Blake) certainly wasn't doing enough to address the situation. But I digress. I suppose that you disapprove of Phil Scott and Charlie Baker as well. And I suspect that you'd wish Martin O'Malley (who was unpopular by the time he left office and had numerous controversies of his own) were still your Governor.

[SevenEleven]

It kind of reminds me of Mike Beebe getting reelected AR Governor in an uneventful landslide even as the rest of his party was collapsing and Democrats in comparable places were being obliterated.

Seriously though, how on earth did he manage that? He was literally the only southern Democrat who survived.

Arkansas does stick out as a sore thumb on the 2010 gubernatorial results map, and Beebe's result is even more impressive when you consider that Blanche Lincoln was getting destroyed by more than 20% on the exact same ballot! And Beebe managed to win every single county in the state.

I've said it a million times here, but there is zero evidence that "wave" midterms affect gubernatorial elections.

[Virginiá]

I've said it a million times here, but there is zero evidence that "wave" midterms affect gubernatorial elections.

How, though? Just looking at simple data such as which party controlled how many govs offices each year is practically enough on its own:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_U.S._states

As soon as a party assumes control of the White House for multiple terms (sometimes just one), the balance of power in the states shifts against them. The only exception there is the 1930s, which saw a national repudiation of the Republican Party for its failures during the GD. The Solid South is also an exception, but mostly because it was a one-party apartheid region.

All elections have some exceptions depending on the trends of the time and unique local factors, but the white house party generally gets a lot less of them.

[warandwar]

And I suspect that you'd wish Martin O'Malley (who was unpopular by the time he left office and had numerous controversies of his own) were still your Governor.

LOL

[Calthrina950]

And I suspect that you'd wish Martin O'Malley (who was unpopular by the time he left office and had numerous controversies of his own) were still your Governor.

LOL

If this is all you have to respond to my last post, then that's unfortunate. I'm not going to allow such things to affect me.

[SevenEleven]

I've said it a million times here, but there is zero evidence that "wave" midterms affect gubernatorial elections.

How, though? Just looking at simple data such as which party controlled how many govs offices each year is practically enough on its own:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_U.S._states

As soon as a party assumes control of the White House for multiple terms (sometimes just one), the balance of power in the states shifts against them. The only exception there is the 1930s, which saw a national repudiation of the Republican Party for its failures during the GD. The Solid South is also an exception, but mostly because it was a one-party apartheid region.

All elections have some exceptions depending on the trends of the time and unique local factors, but the white house party generally gets a lot less of them.

The only Democratic pick up from 2006 that was lost in 2010 was Ohio. The only Republican pick up from 2014 that was lost in 2018 was Illinois. 1994 is the worst offender, with five 1990 Dem pick ups turned into single-track Governors.

[Calthrina950]

It kind of reminds me of Mike Beebe getting reelected AR Governor in an uneventful landslide even as the rest of his party was collapsing and Democrats in comparable places were being obliterated.

Seriously though, how on earth did he manage that? He was literally the only southern Democrat who survived.

Arkansas does stick out as a sore thumb on the 2010 gubernatorial results map, and Beebe's result is even more impressive when you consider that Blanche Lincoln was getting destroyed by more than 20% on the exact same ballot! And Beebe managed to win every single county in the state.

I've said it a million times here, but there is zero evidence that "wave" midterms affect gubernatorial elections.

And I think that you have a legitimate point. Arkansas was basically 2010's equivalent to Massachusetts, Maryland, and Vermont in 2018. In all four states, Governors of one political party were reelected in a landslide while Senators of another political party were elected (or reelected) in a parallel landslide. Massachusetts is probably the strongest parallel to Arkansas of these three, since Baker and Beebe both outperformed the opposing-party victor in the Senatorial races (Boozeman and Warren).

[Skye]

The shock was real in this thread.

I remember being shocked as well at the time, but I joined Atlas just after the 2014 midterms so I missed being part of the discussion.