OK, what happened in Maryland???

[solarstorm]

Barack Obama visiting and campaigning side-by-side with Brown.

Anywhere that Barack Obama went to campaign for Democrats, they've lost.

Not in Connecticut.

[jaichind]

The only way to explain this is a much larger white turnout and the GOP taking a much bigger share of the white vote.  In fact in this election whites is voting as a bloc which usually seems to take place in places like Mississippi but now perhaps with the non-white population in MD growing to be larger than 40% this is triggering a white conscious.  Absent of exit polls I have to extrapolate it.

in 2012 Prez it was
                                       GOP vote
White (59%)                       55%
Non-White (41%)                  9%
----------------------------------------------
                                          36%

This time the GOP captured about 54% of the vote.  Lets assume the large minority turnout for Obama in 2012 has subsided and Whites now make up 65% of the voting electorate.  I think an implied exit poll should look like this

                                      GOP vote
White (65%)                     75%
Non-White  (35%)             16%
---------------------------------------------
                                        54%

And that is assuming that the GOP made some gains among the minority voting bloc since 2012 (9% to 16%).  Any argument that the GOP vote share the white vote is less than 75% by arguing that the  GOP vote share of the non-White vote is higher than 16% runs in the problem of the GOP getting in Prince George County only 15% of the vote in 2014 where Whites makes up 20% of the population and most likely around 22-23% of the electorate this time around.  Such a low vote share must imply that the GOP in PG county is losing the non-White vote by massive margins.  This in turn imply that the GOP must be winning the White vote by massive margins.

[anarchy2day]

Barack Obama visiting and campaigning side-by-side with Brown.

Anywhere that Barack Obama went to campaign for Democrats, they've lost.

Not in Connecticut.

Fair enough.  Obama did go there, didn't he?  Okay, to paraphrase a Meatloaf tune, 4 out of 5 ain't bad.

[ilikeverin]

For reference, in 2010, O'Malley won with 1,045k votes; Ehrlich had 776k.  This year, Hogan won with 847k votes, while Brown had 771k.  Brown just did not turn out the big Democratic areas.

[anarchy2day]

For reference, in 2010, O'Malley won with 1,045k votes; Ehrlich had 776k.  This year, Hogan won with 847k votes, while Brown had 771k.  Brown just did not turn out the big Democratic areas.

Voters punished Democrats because of Obama.

[Peeperkorn]

White racist silent majority.

[jaichind]

White racist silent majority.

Sorry if you meant this tongue-in-cheek but by your logic are not the minority vote that voted in even larger margin for the D candidate also racist (by clearly voting against the "white" candidate for being the "white" candidate.)

[Mr. Reactionary]

White racist silent majority.

I know. Maryland is such a racist state ... except when they voted overwhelmingly for Obama twice.

[warandwar]

White racist silent majority.

I know. Maryland is such a racist state ... except when they voted overwhelmingly for Obama twice.

Well, a white supremacist did just win a seat on the Anne Arundel County Council

I wouldn't call it a white racist silent majority, but a loud suburban white minority that Hogan tapped into. You can see this in the areas he did especially well in: Baltimore County, Harford County, Carroll County. A bunch of Ravens fans who hate that any money is spent on public transit and don't want to deal with the consequences of their bay runoff.

[warandwar]

For reference, in 2010, O'Malley won with 1,045k votes; Ehrlich had 776k.  This year, Hogan won with 847k votes, while Brown had 771k.  Brown just did not turn out the big Democratic areas.

In PG in 2010, O'malley got 203,957 votes out of around 230,000
In PG in 2014, Brown has 174,005 votes out of around 200,000

In MoCo in 2010, O'Malley got 198,950 votes out of around 290,000
In MoCo in 2010, Brown has 151,515 votes out of around 245,000

And so on...

[Ab1234mdusr]

Carroll County voted 83% for Hogan. That's something you usually see in northern Texas.

[solarstorm]

Serious question: Is there any chance that the ballots have been counted wrongly?

Do the Marylanders use voting computers or vintage ballot paper?

[Gass3268]

Serious question: Is there any chance that the ballots have been counted wrongly?

Do the Marylanders use voting computers or vintage ballot paper?

I've heard that their was some counting issues in Anne Arundel County. Some votes were counted twice. Which is why the margin is down to 4.67% instead of the 9.5% as it appeared yesterday morning.

[IceSpear]

Serious question: Is there any chance that the ballots have been counted wrongly?

Do the Marylanders use voting computers or vintage ballot paper?

I've heard that their was some counting issues in Anne Arundel County. Some votes were counted twice. Which is why the margin is down to 4.67% instead of the 9.5% as it appeared yesterday morning.

Whoa, that's crazy. I guess that makes the result a little less insane then, more 2002-esque.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

So, somewhat like Illinois, it was low turnout + those that turned out were mad at the state level about tax increases and the sluggish state economy, in addition to a bad national landscape for Dems?

[Maxwell]

Hogan also managed to break up the O'Malley coalition. O'Malley won Baltimore County by 2%, Hogan won it by 20%.

[KCDem]

No Democrats voted and Anthony Brown is a terrible candidate.

[traininthedistance]

Out of all the results this Tuesday, MD-Gov is one of the two that feels like a personal gut-punch to me, not even so much because a Republican won but because of what interests he in particular stands up for (note his background as a sprawl developer) and why he won- in particular, opposition to the so-called "rain tax", which is nothing of the sort but is in fact one of the best policies that anyone has come up with anywhere in my lifetime.  The other, of course, being the gas tax referendum in Massachusetts, where science and common sense were also rejected in favor of Luntzian reaction.  (Seriously- if you're a non-blue avatar and you supported No on that, congrats on swallowing an elephantine load of transparent bullsh*t and [unwittingly, one would hope] doing the Devil's work.  Harsh words, but I need to vent, and this is one area where I do in fact have the expertise to do so.)

I'd almost be relatively okay with a dumbass #Benghazi!!!1! #OBOLA wave on other issues in other races– you win some you lose some–, but when even blue states like these are reacting violently to the tamest, best-supported, and most obviously necessary Pigouvian measures that attempt to secure a future for our infrastructure (both man-made and natural) and make people make recompense for just a tiny bit of the the externalities of their actions, I seriously weep for the future of America, and humanity as a whole.

It's almost like, WTF can I even do to make this world a better place.  How can we win while also remaining true to, well, the truth?  I guess we can't.  These results will be taken as a shot across the bow, and nothing will ever get better until it's too late, and probably not even then.  Urgh.

Go ahead, sage this, I really don't give a f**k.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

So, somewhat like Illinois, it was low turnout + those that turned out were mad at the state level about tax increases and the sluggish state economy, in addition to a bad national landscape for Dems?

Sure, but it's important to recall that in Illinois, Quinn was very unpopular and Rauner was a moderate who worked hard to win support from Democrats.  Elections are almost never decided by a single factor.  Turnout probably played a much greater role in Maryland than in Illinois.

Plus, as KCDem said, Brown ran a pretty awful campaign.

[free my dawg]

Brown couldn't be bothered to campaign in Baltimore.

Christ, what a f***ing disaster.

[Gass3268]

If anything this will be a good wake up call to the Democratic establishment here in Maryland that they can't take things for granted. Luckily we still have huge margins in both bodies of the legislature and most of the other statewide offices.

Also its still up in the air if Hogan will support the Purple Line (Light rail from Bethesda to New Carrollton) which is supposed to be starting construction next year. If he kills it I'm gonna be pissed! 

http://wamu.org/news/14/11/05/would_larry_hogan_really_kill_the_purple_line_in_maryland

[warandwar]

If anything this will be a good wake up call to the Democratic establishment here in Maryland that they can't take things for granted. Luckily we still have huge margins in both bodies of the legislature and most of the other statewide offices.

Also its still up in the air if Hogan will support the Purple Line (Light rail from Bethesda to New Carrollton) which is supposed to be starting construction next year. If he kills it I'm gonna be pissed! 

http://wamu.org/news/14/11/05/would_larry_hogan_really_kill_the_purple_line_in_maryland

I'm not hopeful about either the Red Line or the Purple line.

[Maxwell]

If anything this will be a good wake up call to the Democratic establishment here in Maryland that they can't take things for granted. Luckily we still have huge margins in both bodies of the legislature and most of the other statewide offices.

Also its still up in the air if Hogan will support the Purple Line (Light rail from Bethesda to New Carrollton) which is supposed to be starting construction next year. If he kills it I'm gonna be pissed! 

http://wamu.org/news/14/11/05/would_larry_hogan_really_kill_the_purple_line_in_maryland

My guess is Hogan knows how hard it is to get re-elected as a Republican in Maryland and won't overstretch his boundaries, but I could be wrong.

[warandwar]

If anything this will be a good wake up call to the Democratic establishment here in Maryland that they can't take things for granted. Luckily we still have huge margins in both bodies of the legislature and most of the other statewide offices.

Also its still up in the air if Hogan will support the Purple Line (Light rail from Bethesda to New Carrollton) which is supposed to be starting construction next year. If he kills it I'm gonna be pissed! 

http://wamu.org/news/14/11/05/would_larry_hogan_really_kill_the_purple_line_in_maryland

My guess is Hogan knows how hard it is to get re-elected as a Republican in Maryland and won't overstretch his boundaries, but I could be wrong.

I think there is very little overlap between Hogan voters and people who want the Purple Line and Red Line. Again, his votes came from rural Maryland and Baltimore suburbs.

[ilikeverin]

I'm terrified for the Purple Line, honestly   Oh well, thanks to Ehrlich, it's not like it would have been built in my neck of the woods until 5 years after I'd get my PhD, anyway.