OK, what happened in Maryland???

[Suburbia]

This is a old thread, but it's hilarious to read many of the hysterical responses on this in hindsight, given how Hogan has consistently been among the nation's most popular Governors and has governed as a moderate pragmatist. Reading this, you'd think Hogan was a fire-breathing, extremist demagogue.

He is absolutely a demagogue. A smart and sophisticated one, but a demagogue. www.baltimoresun.com/citypaper/bcpnews-boss-hg-larry-hogan-has-baltimore-right-where-he-wants-it-20150707-story.html

I don't understand the point that you're trying to make here. Are you saying that Hogan's infrastructure policy shows that he's deliberately trying to undermine Maryland's minority communities? Considering that 82% of Democrats as of May 2020 approve of Hogan's performance, a higher number than he enjoys among Republicans (according to this poll: https://baltimore.cbslocal.com/2020/05/26/may-gonzales-poll-hogan-trump-approval/), I don't think they would agree. You also seem to be implying that he tried to use his cancer diagnosis for his own political benefit-which I find to be a disturbing insinuation. But then again, there are always going to be partisans who will oppose political figures of the opposite orientation from them, regardless of how well such an individual has performed in office.

I know my home state. Some poll from the height of COVID does not prove your case one bit. Hogan ran a campaign based on suburban and exurban resentment - not just of Bmore, but of some MoCo suburbs as well. Then the Bmore Rebellion hit amd Hogan realized he could bring MoCo Democrats into the fold by sending in the troops and arresting all the scary Black Men. There are some who are still in jail. Afterwards, Hogan revealed his plans to help "heal" Baltimore - tearing down vacanr houses. You think people didn't get the message? That their land, their lives were worthless? C'mon!
Since then Hogan has spread lies after lies about Baltimore and about teachers. Many Maryland Democrats were too willing to go along with his trashing of a plan to adress the unbelieveable inequities in Maryland schooling. Not to mention he was very much an ally in the fights to keep MoCo and HoCo schools segregated. The spectre of Freddie Grey continues to shape Maryland politics, and Hogan is cunning enough to realize this...

Hogan appeals to suburban voters----people like me. He'd match Christie's 2009 and 2013 record in Middlesex, NJ if he ran nationally in 2024.

I'd vote for Hogan in 2024 or 2028.

Hogan won MoCo and Harford County because of taxes.

O'Malley signed too many tax increases, that is why Brown lost in 2014 and why Jealous lost in 2018 and why O'Malley Democrats should be disbanded. O'Malley should be a Cabinet Secretary, he is not presidential material.

Hogan's MDGOP can win a third term and fourth in 2022 and 2028----Barry Glassman or J.B. Jennings---or Christian Miele.

Hogan should recruit someone to run against Van Hollen if he wants to be a figure in the 2020s.

[MT Treasurer]

The only Democratic pick up from 2006 that was lost in 2010 was Ohio. The only Republican pick up from 2014 that was lost in 2018 was Illinois. 1994 is the worst offender, with five 1990 Dem pick ups turned into single-track Governors.

Why do only those count and not incumbent governors, open seats, etc.? I think it’s pretty obvious that Walker wouldn’t have lost in a Clinton midterm, for instance.

[SevenEleven]

The only Democratic pick up from 2006 that was lost in 2010 was Ohio. The only Republican pick up from 2014 that was lost in 2018 was Illinois. 1994 is the worst offender, with five 1990 Dem pick ups turned into single-track Governors.

Why do only those count and not incumbent governors, open seats, etc.? I think it’s pretty obvious that Walker wouldn’t have lost in a Clinton midterm, for instance.

I don't think that's obvious.

What makes so-called "wave" elections so impactful is the ability to wash out entrenched incumbents. You don't see that as much with gubernatorial elections because most voters can judge their governor on his or her own merits running the state, and with federal races that becomes much more complicated.

Gubernatorial elections tend to cycle more similarly to presidential elections, such that after being in power for a certain time, a state may go for something new. This is why candidates like Tim Pawlenty or Jodi Rell were able to win in 2006, but be replaced by the opposite party in 2010, despite national federal trends going the opposite way.

The fact that so few gubernatorial incumbents lose in so-called wave elections compared to their federal counterparts suggests that there are other dynamics at play. There's a lot of evidence that most voters can appreciate a Governor of an otherwise rejected political party at the federal level. States still have their natural leans, which is why incumbents defeated us a good metric to analyze.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Complacency is what happened. 

You keep believing that and it'll be worse yet in two years time for Democrats.

If the Democrats select Elizabeth Warren or Hillary Clinton, they'll get pummeled in 2016.  It won't matter who the GOP selects to run.  They could throw up the corpses that are Bob Dole & Juan McCain and win handily.

This post has aged well.  Especially given that at the time it was posted, Hillary Clinton had one of the most massive polling leads of any candidate that early in the game.

[Fuzzy Bear]

It kind of reminds me of Mike Beebe getting reelected AR Governor in an uneventful landslide even as the rest of his party was collapsing and Democrats in comparable places were being obliterated.

Seriously though, how on earth did he manage that? He was literally the only southern Democrat who survived.

Arkansas does stick out as a sore thumb on the 2010 gubernatorial results map, and Beebe's result is even more impressive when you consider that Blanche Lincoln was getting destroyed by more than 20% on the exact same ballot! And Beebe managed to win every single county in the state.

I've said it a million times here, but there is zero evidence that "wave" midterms affect gubernatorial elections.

Mario Cuomo would say "Hi" if he could.

[warandwar]

This is a old thread, but it's hilarious to read many of the hysterical responses on this in hindsight, given how Hogan has consistently been among the nation's most popular Governors and has governed as a moderate pragmatist. Reading this, you'd think Hogan was a fire-breathing, extremist demagogue.

He is absolutely a demagogue. A smart and sophisticated one, but a demagogue. www.baltimoresun.com/citypaper/bcpnews-boss-hg-larry-hogan-has-baltimore-right-where-he-wants-it-20150707-story.html

I don't understand the point that you're trying to make here. Are you saying that Hogan's infrastructure policy shows that he's deliberately trying to undermine Maryland's minority communities? Considering that 82% of Democrats as of May 2020 approve of Hogan's performance, a higher number than he enjoys among Republicans (according to this poll: https://baltimore.cbslocal.com/2020/05/26/may-gonzales-poll-hogan-trump-approval/), I don't think they would agree. You also seem to be implying that he tried to use his cancer diagnosis for his own political benefit-which I find to be a disturbing insinuation. But then again, there are always going to be partisans who will oppose political figures of the opposite orientation from them, regardless of how well such an individual has performed in office.

I know my home state. Some poll from the height of COVID does not prove your case one bit. Hogan ran a campaign based on suburban and exurban resentment - not just of Bmore, but of some MoCo suburbs as well. Then the Bmore Rebellion hit amd Hogan realized he could bring MoCo Democrats into the fold by sending in the troops and arresting all the scary Black Men. There are some who are still in jail. Afterwards, Hogan revealed his plans to help "heal" Baltimore - tearing down vacanr houses. You think people didn't get the message? That their land, their lives were worthless? C'mon!
Since then Hogan has spread lies after lies about Baltimore and about teachers. Many Maryland Democrats were too willing to go along with his trashing of a plan to adress the unbelieveable inequities in Maryland schooling. Not to mention he was very much an ally in the fights to keep MoCo and HoCo schools segregated. The spectre of Freddie Grey continues to shape Maryland politics, and Hogan is cunning enough to realize this...

Hogan appeals to suburban voters----people like me. He'd match Christie's 2009 and 2013 record in Middlesex, NJ if he ran nationally in 2024.

I'd vote for Hogan in 2024 or 2028.

Hogan won MoCo and Harford County because of taxes.

O'Malley signed too many tax increases, that is why Brown lost in 2014 and why Jealous lost in 2018 and why O'Malley Democrats should be disbanded. O'Malley should be a Cabinet Secretary, he is not presidential material.

Hogan's MDGOP can win a third term and fourth in 2022 and 2028----Barry Glassman or J.B. Jennings---or Christian Miele.

Hogan should recruit someone to run against Van Hollen if he wants to be a figure in the 2020s.

Yes
Yes
Hogan lost MoCo
Taxes were big (and specifically taxes on impermeable surfaces - aka big suburban driveways), but Brown was a weak candidate. Jealous losing had nothing to do with taxes. O'Malley is not Cabinet material. His brain is barely material.

Not with any of those figures. Someone like Alan Kittleman would have a chance, but then again he lost big in 2018.

His best bet for a legacy is to attract enough Republucams to break the supermajority in the Leg. He has failed so far and the GOP did very poorly on the County Executive side, so seems like his coattails are limited.

[Virginiá]

I've said it a million times here, but there is zero evidence that "wave" midterms affect gubernatorial elections.

How, though? Just looking at simple data such as which party controlled how many govs offices each year is practically enough on its own:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_U.S._states

As soon as a party assumes control of the White House for multiple terms (sometimes just one), the balance of power in the states shifts against them. The only exception there is the 1930s, which saw a national repudiation of the Republican Party for its failures during the GD. The Solid South is also an exception, but mostly because it was a one-party apartheid region.

All elections have some exceptions depending on the trends of the time and unique local factors, but the white house party generally gets a lot less of them.

The only Democratic pick up from 2006 that was lost in 2010 was Ohio. The only Republican pick up from 2014 that was lost in 2018 was Illinois. 1994 is the worst offender, with five 1990 Dem pick ups turned into single-track Governors.

With your other post, you're mostly making a case for incumbency here. It's perfectly fair to say that many voters often judge gubernatorial candidates differently, and because there's so much attention on those races, it's harder for parties to score tons of pickups like they do further downballot, where most voters in recent times have basically started voting for parties, not people (with some exceptions). I still think that wave elections tend to energize the out party, which brings out many voters who are less inclined to split their tickets. That makes it harder for gubernatorial candidates running for open seats, or incumbents who are not well-liked or are not really well-known by the electorate. Like, if we replayed MA-GOV 2014 in 2018, I'd say it is more likely than not he loses, and never is able to use the office and his higher profile to establish himself as a popular executive. In a way, wave elections give parties in difficult states the chance they need to get their foot in the door and make a name for themselves.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

One thing to be kept in mind is that most governors (including Maryland's) are term limited. So, there's less need for change to happen during wave years, and there's no concern that electing someone will lock them into a permanent office.