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  Talk Elections
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  2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls
  2014 Senatorial Election Polls
  PPP: Perdue +1, Orman +1, Hagan +2, Shaheen +2, Ernst +3 (search mode)
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Author Topic: PPP: Perdue +1, Orman +1, Hagan +2, Shaheen +2, Ernst +3  (Read 30291 times)
Miles
MilesC56
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« on: November 03, 2014, 04:32:28 pm »

R+11 - IA-Gov
R+4 - GA-Gov
R+3 - IA-Sen
R+1 - GA-Sen
I+1 - KS-Sen
D+1 - NC-Sen
D+2 - NH-Sen
D+2 - KS-Gov
D+6 - NH-Gov
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #1 on: November 03, 2014, 05:02:19 pm »

Haugh at 5 is a bit high for my comfort, but it was expecting Hagan to only be up 1.
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #2 on: November 03, 2014, 05:46:30 pm »


Based on this last PPP poll and all undecideds breaking for R's.

In the PPP poll, there are more Dem/Ind undecideds than Republican undecideds.
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #3 on: November 03, 2014, 07:00:52 pm »


The issue with NC is that the Dems have banked a lot of the AA vote already. So 25% through early-voting is probably the high-water mark and it will drop back as election-day voters come out. I doubt it drops to 21% but 22% is plausible.

I read on the Upshot that if only people who voted in 2010 showed up tomorrow, it would be 21%. Given how more than half the new Democrats that voted early were black, I doubt it falls under 22%.
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Miles
MilesC56
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Posts: 19,336
United States


« Reply #4 on: November 03, 2014, 07:26:33 pm »
« Edited: November 03, 2014, 07:30:48 pm by Miles »

If it were to hold around 23%, could Hagan reach 50%?

Its possible. It was 23% in 2012; she'd have to overperform Obama by 4-5% with whites.

For reference, in 2008, Obama lost whites 64/35 while Hagan lost them 57/39.
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