PPP: Perdue +1, Orman +1, Hagan +2, Shaheen +2, Ernst +3

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Good news about KS,the rest was as expected.

These aren't the results just guesses... but they're still pretty close to what I'm expecting.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I do think the fundamentals of the race in GA do suggest Nunn will be ahead tomorrow night... the issue is by how much.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I actually think there's a >50% chance Perdue wins outright tomorrow. Some of these Libertarian candidates are going to collapse in the actual results.

Yes, but undecideds are heavily democratic. It seems that the Libertarian is actually taking more from Nunn than Perdue, according to PPP. In the h2h they're tied 48-48 with 8% of blacks (2.32%) of the sample undecided. If Nunn can turn those voters out, she wins outright.

Also, in NC, PPP has a sample that is only 21% AA. The early vote is 25% AA. Miles, do you have perspective on what the racial breakdown will be tomorrow. I could see Hagan just barely missing 50%.

The issue with NC is that the Dems have banked a lot of the AA vote already. So 25% through early-voting is probably the high-water mark and it will drop back as election-day voters come out. I doubt it drops to 21% but 22% is plausible.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

How's the racial mix for GA?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Doing some digging around the GA cross-tabs...

They've got in relation to racial mix..

White 64%
African-American 29%
Other 7%

Considering the early-vote is about what? 33% AA, are we expecting the AA vote to drop off by nearly 4%?

Plus it seems Nunn has stronger cross-over support.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

So... they got Shaheen basically right and Brandstad ...

PPP f'ed up BAD.