National House margin: R+7 (so far)

[Lief 🗽]

David Wasserman is tracking it here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/lv?key=0AjYj9mXElO_QdHVsbnNNdXRoaUE5QThHclNWaTgzb2c&toomany=true#gid=0

[King]

The same as 2010. The landslide was entirely redistricting and bad states in the Senate up this time. Udall is the only one who truly failed.

[Person Man]

The same as 2010. The landslide was entirely redistricting and bad states in the Senate up this time. Udall is the only one who truly failed.

So, Redistricting won them like 5 seats? And defending Obama's initial win is what did us in otherwise?

[Maxwell]

26 Republicans in Obama districts and only 5 Democrats in Romney districts.

[Person Man]

26 Republicans in Obama districts and only 5 Democrats in Romney districts.

Just winning what we should be willing should get us within 6 seats of liberation?

[Tender Branson]

Yeah, an R+7 election result that ends in a R+15 House (250/435).

F**k gerrymandering.

[Maxwell]

26 Republicans in Obama districts and only 5 Democrats in Romney districts.

Just winning what we should be willing should get us within 6 seats of liberation?

The problem is a good number of those districts are held by Republicans who won't lose them (LoBiondo, Gibson, Reichert, King, Ros-Lehtinen, Kline, Paulsen).

[IceSpear]

What an epic fail for the generic ballot polls. Only 3 of them managed to catch the wave.

[Person Man]

I bet at R+2.5, we might not of lost any seats.

[KCDem]

The margin will shrink further as California ballots come in.

[muon2]

Yeah, an R+7 election result that ends in a R+15 House (250/435).

F**k gerrymandering.

You don't need gerrymandering to get that. Numerous studies show that for every 1% shift in the votes cast for a party, there's approximately 2% change in the number of seats for that party.

[muon2]

What an epic fail for the generic ballot polls. Only 3 of them managed to catch the wave.

In 2012 polling underestimated Dem support by leaving them off of LV screens. I wonder if there was an overcompensation this time and too many Dems were included as LVs. That would be consistent with the big drop in turnout, too.

[Lief 🗽]

Yeah, in a first past the post system, a 7% win should translate to at least 250 seats. In Canada in 2011 for instance, the Conservatives won by 9% and had a 20% lead in seats.

[Torie]

There doesn't seem to be any adjustment for uncontested House races. That might lead to a distortion of the margin if there were more uncontested races for one party than the other.