Even assuming that uptick and that the EV advantage lasts through election day, you'd likely be getting a runoff. (Basically take the Perdue numbers and adjust 2-3%).
At this point, it's still likely a runoff. Perdue's chances of avoiding the runoff have improved slightly, Nunn's have fallen.
^^^Because I'm an "independent" from NY and I said so!
Sorry dude, there is very little hackery there with that analysis. Look at the recent polling.
R+3, R+4, Tie, R+2, R+2.
Even when Nunn was up, I've stated you're probably going to need a +4 from either candidate in polling to get a past a runoff. The Libertarian is good for 2-3 points, historically.
Any "adjustments" based on the difference in black early vote doesn't get you to a runoff-proof D lead.
I'm pretty sure 538 would conclude that the runoff chances could be slightly less than 70% now (and not by much), Perdue's chances of avoiding the runoff have improved and Nunn's chances of avoiding a runoff have fallen.
