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  GA: Survey USA: Final poll has Perdue+3 (search mode)
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Author Topic: GA: Survey USA: Final poll has Perdue+3  (Read 4665 times)
Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 23,047
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.55, S: 0.87

P P P
« on: November 03, 2014, 12:01:51 pm »


Even assuming that uptick and that the EV advantage lasts through election day, you'd likely be getting a runoff. (Basically take the Perdue numbers and adjust 2-3%).

At this point, it's still likely a runoff. Perdue's chances of avoiding the runoff have improved slightly, Nunn's have fallen.

^^^Because I'm an "independent" from NY and I said so!

Sorry dude, there is very little hackery there with that analysis. Look at the recent polling.

R+3, R+4, Tie, R+2, R+2.

Even when Nunn was up, I've stated you're probably going to need a +4 from either candidate in polling to get a past a runoff. The Libertarian is good for 2-3 points, historically.

Any "adjustments" based on the difference in black early vote doesn't get you to a runoff-proof D lead.

I'm pretty sure 538 would conclude that the runoff chances could be slightly less than 70% now (and not by much), Perdue's chances of avoiding the runoff have improved and Nunn's chances of avoiding a runoff have fallen.

I'm sorry but the polling has bee junk everywhere so I'm sorry if I trust campaign modeling over junk public polling. Nunn's camp and the DSCC are confident they can get over 50% tomorrow.

Ah, well that settles it then. D+1.

Bro, even the RSCC and Perdue are panicking. Nunn is very likely to win outright.
Stop your trolling. Nunn does not have anywhere near an 80,90% chance of winning outright.

This is going to a runoff. Enough said.
Logged
Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 23,047
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.55, S: 0.87

P P P
« Reply #1 on: November 03, 2014, 12:13:58 pm »


Even assuming that uptick and that the EV advantage lasts through election day, you'd likely be getting a runoff. (Basically take the Perdue numbers and adjust 2-3%).

At this point, it's still likely a runoff. Perdue's chances of avoiding the runoff have improved slightly, Nunn's have fallen.

^^^Because I'm an "independent" from NY and I said so!

Sorry dude, there is very little hackery there with that analysis. Look at the recent polling.

R+3, R+4, Tie, R+2, R+2.

Even when Nunn was up, I've stated you're probably going to need a +4 from either candidate in polling to get a past a runoff. The Libertarian is good for 2-3 points, historically.

Any "adjustments" based on the difference in black early vote doesn't get you to a runoff-proof D lead.

I'm pretty sure 538 would conclude that the runoff chances could be slightly less than 70% now (and not by much), Perdue's chances of avoiding the runoff have improved and Nunn's chances of avoiding a runoff have fallen.

I'm sorry but the polling has bee junk everywhere so I'm sorry if I trust campaign modeling over junk public polling. Nunn's camp and the DSCC are confident they can get over 50% tomorrow.

Ah, well that settles it then. D+1.

Bro, even the RSCC and Perdue are panicking. Nunn is very likely to win outright.
Stop your trolling. Nunn does not have anywhere near an 80,90% chance of winning outright.

This is going to a runoff. Enough said.

Haha your delusional hackery knows no bounds, we'll see how you feel tomorrow night...

DOMINATED!
In which case you're accusing Nate Silver of hackery as well:

Quote
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http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/senate-update-democrats-chance-of-holding-on-continues-to-fall/
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