Sullivan edges Begich in final PPP Alaska poll

[KCDem]

Begich will win as Alaska's pro-incumbent rule strikes again!

[KCDem]

Begich will win as Alaska's pro-incumbent rule strikes again!

The problem with that logic is that Republicans have also been underestimated by the polls in presidential elections too. This is coming from someone who wants Begich to win.

Evidence?

[KCDem]

Begich will win as Alaska's pro-incumbent rule strikes again!

The problem with that logic is that Republicans have also been underestimated by the polls in presidential elections too. This is coming from someone who wants Begich to win.

Evidence?

The chart in this article ( http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-senate-polling-in-alaska-is-making-us-sweat/ ) indicates that Democrats were seriously overestimated in Alaska presidential polling in 2000 and 2008, at least.

That's from the same chart that shows uber Rep States have Democratic polling biases and Dem States having Republican biases. That's because the minority party's numbers are at the ceiling with tons of undecideds. Begich could easily win with 46-45% of the vote given the popularity of third parties in Alaska. We'll see, but I believe Begich will win. His ground game is certainly taking Sullivan's to the woodshed.

[KCDem]

Genuine question: With all of this talk about how Alaska loves incumbents, are there instances when it benefited a Democratic incumbent??

Only thing I can think of is swing to Obama in 2012. But Alaska hasn't really had it's own Dem incumbent in a while...