CO: PPP - Gardner (R) 48; Udall (D) 45

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I would tend to trust PPP in CO, as I would in VA and NC.

Cory Gardner's change on personhood reminds me a lot of Mark Kirk's shifts on coal and energy when he went from representing weathly northern chicagoland to the whole state including the poor mining areas of the southern part of the state. The constituency changes and one of the problems the GOP has had is not representing their present constituency as it really is on at least some issues so as to win on the others.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Not a fan of unskewing the polls but no way Udall is losing if he wins indies by 11%. Of course he probably isn't but this poll seems R friendly with party ID and has too many Ds and Rs and not enough Is.

Actually, if the current trends continue with Republicans up by 7% to 9% in turnout, Udall would have to win 60% of the independents or more. Rove said 67% but consider the source.