Your Final Predictions about Senate battleground states. (with %)

[Senator Cris]

Alaska
Begich (D) *
Sullivan (R)

Arkansas
Pryor (D) *
Cotton (R)

Colorado
Udall (D) *
Gardner (R)

Georgia
Nunn (D)
Perdue (R)

Iowa
Braley (D)
Ernst (R)

Kansas
Roberts (R) *
Orman (I)

Kentucky
McConnell (R) *
Grimes (D)

Louisiana
Landrieu (D) *
Cassidy (R)

New Hampshire
Shaheen (D) *
Brown (R)

North Carolina
Hagan (D) *
Tillis (R)

[ElectionsGuy]

Alaska

Begich - 46%
Sullivan - 51%

Arkansas

Pryor - 45%
Cotton - 53%

Colorado

Udall - 47%
Gardner - 48%

Georgia

Perdue - 48%
Nunn - 48%

Perdue - 52%
Nunn - 48%

Iowa

Ernst - 50%
Braley - 48%

Kansas

Orman - 49%
Roberts - 48%

Kentucky

McConnell - 54%
Grimes - 45%

Louisiana

Landrieu - 45%
Cassidy - 38%
Maness - 10%

Landrieu - 47%
Cassidy - 53%

New Hampshire

Shaheen - 52%
Brown - 48%

North Carolina

Hagan - 49%
Tillis - 47%

[Rob Bloom]

Alaska
Begich (D) - 49%
Sullivan (R) - 48%

Arkansas
Pryor (D) - 47%
Cotton (R) - 51%

Colorado
Udall (D) - 47%
Gardner (R) - 48%

Georgia
Nunn (D) - 48%
Perdue (R) - 48%

Ga. run-off
Nunn (D) - 50.4%
Perdue (R) - 49.6 %

Iowa
Braley (D) - 49%
Ernst (R) - 48%

Kansas
Roberts (R) - 47%
Orman (I) - 48%

Kentucky
McConnell (R) - 52%
Grimes (D) - 46%

Louisiana
Landrieu (D) - 42%
Cassidy (R) - 36%
Maness (R) - 15%

La. run-off
Landrieu (D) - 48%
Cassidy (R) - 52%

New Hampshire
Shaheen (D) - 51%
Brown (R) - 47%

North Carolina
Hagan (D)  - 48%
Tillis (R) - 46%

[rbt48]

Ok, I'll be a total partisan with my predictions:

Alaska
Sullivan (R) - 49%
Begich (D) - 48%

Arkansas
Cotton (R) - 53%
Pryor (D) - 45%

Colorado
Gardner (R) - 49%
Udall (D) - 47%

Georgia
Perdue (R) - 48%
Nunn (D) - 46%

Runoff:
Perdue (R) - 52%
Nunn (D) - 48%


Iowa
Ernst (R) - 50%
Braley (D) - 47%

Kansas
Roberts (R) - 47%
Orman (I) - 46%

Kentucky
McConnell (R) - 52%
Grimes (D) - 46%

Louisiana
Landrieu (D) - 42%
Cassidy (R) - 38%
Maness (R) - 15%

Runoff:
Cassidy (R) - 53%
Landrieu (D) - 47%


New Hampshire
Brown (R) - 50%
Shaheen (D) - 48%


North Carolina
Tillis (R) - 48%
Hagan (D)  - 47%

[NewYorkExpress]

Alaska- Sullivan(R) 50.2%
            Begich (D) 48.9%

Arkansas; Cotton (R) 54%
                Pryor (D) 45.8%

Colorado Udall (D) 48%
                        Gardner (R) 47.2%

Georgia Nunn (D) 50.3%
                       Perdue (R) 48.2%

Iowa Ernst (R) 51%
                  Braley (D) 48%

Kansas Roberts (R) 50%
                      Orman (I) 49.3%

Kentucky  McConnell (R) 49.5%
                 Grimes (D) 49.1%
                 
Louisiana Cassidy (R) 40%
                         Landrieu (D) 37%
                         Maness (R) 21%

Louisiana Runoff Cassidy (R) 55%
                                   Landrieu (D) 45%

New Hampshire Shaheen (D) 52%
                                  Brown (R) 45%

North Carolina Hagen (D) 49%
                                 Tillis (R) 46%

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Alaska
Begich (D) * 48
Sullivan (R) 47

Arkansas
Pryor (D) *  46
Cotton (R)  52

Colorado
Udall (D) * 48
Gardner (R)  50

Georgia
Nunn (D) 48
Perdue (R) 49

Iowa
Braley (D) 48
Ernst (R) 51

Kansas
Roberts (R) * 50
Orman (I) 49

Kentucky
McConnell (R) * 53
Grimes (D) 45

Louisiana
Landrieu (D) * 45
Cassidy (R) 37

New Hampshire
Shaheen (D) * 51
Brown (R) 49

North Carolina
Hagan (D) *  49
Tillis (R) 48

[Maxwell]

AK:
Sullivan (R) - 50%
Begich (D) * - 47%

AR:
Cotton (R) - 53%
Pryor (D) * - 45%

CO:
Gardner (R) - 49%
Udall (D) * - 47%

GA:
Perdue (R) - 49%
Nunn (D) - 48%

IA:
Ernest (R) - 49%
Braley (D) - 48%

KS:
Roberts (R) * - 48%
Orman (I) - 46%

KY:
McConnell (R) * - 53%
Grimes (D) - 44%

LA (Primary):
Landrieu (D) * - 42%
Cassidy (R) - 38%

LA (Run-Off):
Cassidy (R) - 52%
Landrieu (D) * - 48%

NH:
Shaheen (D) * - 51%
Brown (R) - 47%

NC:
Hagan (D) * - 48%
Tillis (R) - 47%

[SPC]

Alaska
Begich (D) * 49%
Sullivan (R) 48%

Arkansas
Pryor (D) * 46%
Cotton (R) 53%

Colorado
Udall (D) * 48%
Gardner (R) 50%

Georgia
Nunn (D) 47%
Perdue (R) 50%

Iowa
Braley (D) 49%
Ernst (R) 50%

Kansas
Roberts (R) * 49%
Orman (I) 48%

Kentucky
McConnell (R) * 53%
Grimes (D) 46%

Louisiana
Landrieu (D) * 47%/48%
Cassidy (R) 41%/52%
Manness (R) 11%/0%

New Hampshire
Shaheen (D) * 49%
Brown (R) 48%

North Carolina
Hagan (D) * 49%
Tillis (R) 48%

[backtored]

Alaska
Begich (D) * 50%
Sullivan (R) 49%

Arkansas
Pryor (D) * 46%
Cotton (R) 53%

Colorado
Udall (D) * 47%
Gardner (R) 51%

Georgia
Nunn (D) 48%/48%
Perdue (R) 49%/52%

Iowa
Braley (D) 47%
Ernst (R) 50%

Kansas
Roberts (R) * 49%
Orman (I) 47%

Kentucky
McConnell (R) * 54%
Grimes (D) 46%

Louisiana
Landrieu (D) * 44%/47%
Cassidy (R) 41%/53%
Manness (R) 10%/0%

New Hampshire
Shaheen (D) * 49%
Brown (R) 48%

North Carolina
Hagan (D) * 47%
Tillis (R) 46%

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

there's no Democrat on the Kansas ballot, so Roberts + Orman should add up to about 98%.

[The Vorlon]

Kansas - Republican Incumbent defeated.

Everybody is calling this race a "dead heat" - I may be crazy but I think Roberts gets crushed, humiliated, flogged, beaten and killed.  Orman by 5+%

Why?

Firstly, Roberts is at 41.8% in the Real Clear Politics average, (43.1 in the 538 model) let's not split hairs over the exact value but not only is he polling below the "vulnerability line" of 50% for an incumbent, be can barely see 45%, let alone 50%...  This is indeed the "Obama sucks" election, but there is a almost as strong a "Throw the bums out" under current, and Roberts is one of those bums.

Next, Roberts had a very aggressive "Tea Party" challenge this year, 40.8% of republicans voted against Roberts in the primary: for Roberts to pull it out against Orman suddenly droves of people who have already voted against him once are suddenly animated enough to vote for him?
Not very likely, lots of these tea party folks will just stay home.

Thirdly there is a highly unpopular Governor dragging Roberts down.  Not only is Brownback below 50%, he is trailing in the polls by (roughly) the margin of error (3-4% or so) - All of these folks voting for change to vote Brownback out are suddenly going to pull the lever for the status quo and back Roberts? - seems unlikely to me.

Lastly, Robert's argument that Kansas should back him so he can be part of the GOP 51+ retaking the senate has faded as Democratic fortunes have fallen elsewhere.  If indeed the GOP is headed for 53 or 54 seats, why not have you cake and eat it too by getting "change" with Orman, while still having your senator caucus with the majority?

Prediction: Orman 51.5%, Roberts 46.3%, Other 2.2%

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hampshire - Democratic Incumbent holds..

Shaheen looks like exactly the type of democratic incumbent who might lose in a decent (but not great) GOP year.

She is below 50% (48.7%) in the RealClearPolitics average, and barely ahead of Scott Brown.  Her support has been static at 48-49% in all the polls (if anything also barely downward for a trendline) while Brown has been very modestly edging up.

Unless the GOP really does have a "wave" to ride, I think Shaheen barely hangs on.

While Obama is politically radioactive, Shaheen herself is well liked and well respected.  Her and her GOP counterpart Ayote are seen as being a good and effective team for the state, and Brown has just enough of a vague "carpetbagger" whiff to tilt the personal factors of the race towards Shaheen.  The Democratic ground game is not inferior to the GOP efforts, and likely a tad better.

Prediction: Shaheen 49.9%, Brown 48.7, Other 1.4%

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

North Carolina  - Democratic Incumbent Defeated

Kay Hagan looks almost identical to Shaheen in New Hampshire as the type of democratic incumbent who would lose in a decent (but not great) GOP year.

She is below 50% (44.1%) in the RealClearPolitics average, and barely ahead of Thom Tillis) Her support has been static at 44ish in all the polls while Tillis has been very clearly been edging up.

Obama is politically radioactive, and unlike Shaheen, Hagan does not have a ton of personal goodwill to partly offset the Obama is an idiot factor. Thom Tillis suffers from being a controversial leader in the state legislature, but he is gains a little more in energy from the base than he loses by turning off some moderates. (IMHO)

The Libertarian is polling at 4+% and the libertarian vote almost never actually shows up on election day, so I expect at least some of it to drift to Tillis.

This is the closest race of the year (again IMHO) but I think Tillis barely gets it.

This prediction a guaranteed to be almost as accurate as flipping a coin or reading tarot cards.

Prediction: Tillis 49.6%, Hagan 49.0, Other 1.4%

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Alaska  - Democratic Incumbent Defeated

Firstly, the quality of the polling in this state is horrid, it is just a total dogs breakfast.

Using Nate Silver's 538 "pollster ratings" as a rough guide, there is not a single pollster better than a C+ in the last month.

Most of these polls suggest a semi-solid Sullivan lead of 4-5% or so, but there are a couple of polls that suggest otherwise.

PPP (D) has Sullivan up only 1%,
Hellenthal and Associates has Begich up by 10%

In the polling equivalent of "The Three Stooges" Ivan Moore polling had Begich up 6% on October 28th, but then suddenly found Sullivan up 4% just two days later.  The later poll was sponsored by the Sullivan Campaign, so we can safely conclude based upon the 10% swing in 2 days that Moore is either truly erratic or a complete whore to whomever pays him....

For what it's worth, here is "538's" breakdown of Alaska polling bias over the years.

As your investment advisor cautions, "Past performance is no guarantee of future returns"



Garbage in, garbage out!

Prediction: Sullivan 51.0%, Begich 47.5%, Other 1.5%

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Iowa  Republicans win open DEmocratic Seat

This race is very close.

In the last 25 publically released polls, this has been the distribution of results:

Braley+1    Four polls
Tied           Six polls
Ernst +1   Three polls
Ernst +2   Five polls
Ernst +3   Two polls
Ernst +4   Two polls
Ernst +6   Two polls
Ernst +7   One polls

The average of these 25 polls is that Ernst is up about 2%

The Selzer & Associates poll which has shown leads of 6 and 7% for Ernst is very well regarded and (psychologically if nothing else) was a huge boost to the Ernst campaign.

Ernst has run a very solid campaign while Braley has put his foot in in a bit ("a farmer without a law degree")

Lastly, in the Governors race Republican Branstad is up deep into double digits (19% per RCP) which will likely help at least a little down the ticket.

The polls would have to systemically biased for Braley to win

Prediction: Ernst 51.1%, Begich 47.1%, Other 1.8%

[Smash255]

Alaska
Begich (D) *  49
Sullivan (R)   50

Arkansas
Pryor (D) *  47
Cotton (R)   52

Colorado
Udall (D) *    49
Gardner (R)  49

Georgia
Nunn (D)     48/ 49 
Perdue (R)  46/ 51

Iowa
Braley (D)    49
Ernst (R)     47

Kansas
Roberts (R) *  47
Orman (I)     51

Kentucky
McConnell (R) *   52
Grimes (D)           47

Louisiana
Landrieu (D) *   45/47
Cassidy (R)     38/  53

New Hampshire
Shaheen (D) *  52
Brown (R)     46

North Carolina
Hagan (D) *  50
Tillis (R)      47

[Del Tachi]

Alaska
Begich (D) * - 46%
Sullivan (R) - 51%

Arkansas
Pryor (D) * - 45%
Cotton (R) - 53%

Colorado
Udall (D) * - 47%
Gardner (R) - 51%

Georgia
Nunn (D) - 47%
Perdue (R) - 50%

Iowa
Braley (D) - 48%
Ernst (R) - 50%

Kansas
Roberts (R) * - 48%
Orman (I) - 43%

Kentucky
McConnell (R) * - 52%
Grimes (D) - 45%

Louisiana
Landrieu (D) * - 49%
Cassidy (R) - 51%

New Hampshire
Shaheen (D) * - 50%
Brown (R) - 48%

North Carolina
Hagan (D) * - 49%
Tillis (R) - 46%

[tmthforu94]

Alaska
Begich (D) * - 46%
Sullivan (R) - 48%

Arkansas
Pryor (D) * - 44%
Cotton (R) -  53%

Colorado
Udall (D) * - 47%
Gardner (R) - 50%

Georgia
Nunn (D) - 48%
Perdue (R) - 49%

Iowa
Braley (D) - 48%
Ernst (R) - 50%

Kansas
Roberts (R) * - 51%
Orman (I) - 47%

Kentucky
McConnell (R) * - 52%
Grimes (D) - 46%

Louisiana
Landrieu (D) * - 42%
Cassidy (R) - 37%

New Hampshire
Shaheen (D) * - 50%
Brown (R) - 48%

North Carolina
Hagan (D) * - 47%
Tillis (R) - 47%

[NHI]

Alaska
Begich (D) * 48%
Sullivan (R) 49%

Arkansas
Pryor (D) * 46%
Cotton (R) 52%

Colorado
Udall (D) * 48%
Gardner (R) 50%

Georgia
Nunn (D) 49%
Perdue (R) 50%

Iowa
Braley (D)  50%
Ernst (R) 49%

Kansas
Roberts (R) * 47%
Orman (I) 48%

Kentucky
McConnell (R) * 52%
Grimes (D) 46%

Louisiana
Landrieu (D) *
Cassidy (R)

New Hampshire
Shaheen (D) *48%
Brown (R) 49%

North Carolina
Hagan (D) * 49%
Tillis (R) 47%

[Flake]

Alaska
Begich (D) *: 49%
Sullivan (R): 48%

Arkansas
Pryor (D) *: 46%
Cotton (R): 52%

Colorado
Udall (D) *: 47%
Gardner (R): 50%

Georgia
Nunn (D): 50%
Perdue (R): 48%

Iowa
Braley (D): 48%
Ernst (R): 50%

Kansas
Roberts (R) *: 48%
Orman (I) 49%

Kentucky
McConnell (R) * 52%
Grimes (D): 47%

Louisiana
Landrieu (D) *: 50.3%
Cassidy (R): 49.7% (runoff)

New Hampshire
Shaheen (D) *: 53%
Brown (R): 47%

North Carolina
Hagan (D) *: 48%
Tillis (R): 46%

[Lief 🗽]

Alaska
Begich (D) *: 45%
Sullivan (R): 49%

Arkansas
Pryor (D) *: 46
Cotton (R): 53

Colorado
Udall (D) *: 48%
Gardner (R): 49%

Georgia
Nunn (D): 49%
Perdue (R): 48%

Iowa
Braley (D): 47%
Ernst (R): 49%

Kansas
Roberts (R) *: 49%
Orman (I): 48%

Kentucky
McConnell (R) *: 53%
Grimes (D): 47%

Louisiana
Landrieu (D) *: 45%
Cassidy (R): 40%

New Hampshire
Shaheen (D): 52% *
Brown (R): 48%

North Carolina
Hagan (D): 49% *
Tillis (R): 46%
Haugh: 5%

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I still haven't got a clue... I thought I'd be sure by this point, but there are likely to be so many squeakers.

[KCDem]

Alaska
Begich (D) *: 48%
Sullivan (R): 46%

Arkansas
Pryor (D) *: 45
Cotton (R): 52

Colorado
Udall (D) *: 49%
Gardner (R): 48%

Georgia
Nunn (D): 50%
Perdue (R): 48%

Iowa
Braley (D): 47%
Ernst (R): 49%

Kansas
Roberts (R) *: 47%
Orman (I): 49%

Kentucky
McConnell (R) *: 52%
Grimes (D): 47%

Louisiana
Landrieu (D) *: 46%
Cassidy (R): 38%

New Hampshire
Shaheen (D): 52% *
Brown (R): 48%

North Carolina
Hagan (D): 49% *
Tillis (R): 46%

[Brewer]

Alaska
Begich (D) *: 48%
Sullivan (R): 47%

Arkansas
Pryor (D) *: 45
Cotton (R): 53

Colorado
Udall (D) *: 47%
Gardner (R): 49%

Georgia
Nunn (D): 48%
Perdue (R): 48%

Iowa
Braley (D): 47%
Ernst (R): 49%

Kansas
Roberts (R) *: 48%
Orman (I): 49%

Kentucky
McConnell (R) *: 53%
Grimes (D): 47%

Louisiana
Landrieu (D) *: 44%
Cassidy (R): 40%

New Hampshire
Shaheen (D): 52% *
Brown (R): 48%

North Carolina
Hagan (D): 49% *
Tillis (R): 46%

[Seattle]

Alaska

Begich - 49%
Sullivan - 47%

Arkansas

Pryor - 46%
Cotton - 52%

Colorado

Udall - 47%
Gardner - 49%

Georgia

Perdue - 48%
Nunn - 49%

Perdue - 52%
Nunn - 48%

Iowa

Ernst - 49%
Braley - 48%

Kansas

Orman - 48%
Roberts - 50%

Kentucky

McConnell - 52%
Grimes - 47%

Louisiana

Landrieu - 46%
Cassidy - 38%
Maness - 12%

Landrieu - 48%
Cassidy - 52%

New Hampshire

Shaheen - 52%
Brown - 48%

North Carolina

Hagan - 49%
Tillis - 47%

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

...I'm going to regret this the moment I post it.


Alaska
Begich (D) * 48%
Sullivan (R) 47%

Arkansas
Pryor (D) * 46%
Cotton (R) 52%

Colorado
Udall (D) * 48%
Gardner (R) 48.5%

Georgia (no prediction for run-off)
Nunn (D) 49%
Perdue (R) 48%

Iowa
Braley (D) 49%
Ernst (R) 48%

Kansas
Roberts (R) * 47%
Orman (I) 49%

Kentucky
McConnell (R) * 51%
Grimes (D) 46%

Louisiana (no prediction for run-off)
Landrieu (D) * 44%
Cassidy (R) 36%

New Hampshire
Shaheen (D) * 53%
Brown (R) 47%

North Carolina
Hagan (D) * 49%
Tillis (R) 47%


R - 49
D - 46
I - 3
Run-off - 2

[Miles]

[ILoveTheSmellOfTheSenate]

GOP+10 seats, with no run-offs

Alaska
Sullivan (R)

Arkansas
Cotton (R)

Colorado
Gardner (R)

Georgia
Perdue (R)

Iowa
Ernst (R)

Kansas
Roberts (R) *

Kentucky
McConnell (R) *

Louisiana
Cassidy (R)

New Hampshire
Brown (R)

North Carolina
Tillis (R)

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Hideous hack posters tend to arrive during the season not right at the end.

Seems like your timing sucks too.