IA: Selzer: RIP Braley

[cinyc]

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2014/11/01/iowa-poll-joni-ernst-leads-bruce-braley/18345157/

[cinyc]

Selzer and Marquette have a good history but its a very small sample size as they only poll single states. The numbers say Ernst should win by 1-2%, this poll is an outlier but it would be surprising to see Braley win at this point. Ernst only has a RCP lead of 1.8%.

The sample size is 701, which is just fine for a statewide poll.  The MoE is +/- 3.7, which is lower than the usual +/- 4 we see for statewide polls.

Selzer has polled other states in past cycles.  I recall seeing a Selzer Ohio poll in 2012, but I might be wrong.

[cinyc]

Selzer has polled other states in past cycles.  I recall seeing a Selzer Ohio poll in 2012, but I might be wrong.

They polled CO, which was decent, and NH (way back in early 2011 though) .

As I thought, Selzer also polled Ohio in September 2012 for Bloomberg, though it's not in our database.

[cinyc]

From the poll.  Granted, the sample size was small, but...

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So much for the all hallowed ground game making much of a difference.  Every non-2010 voter would have voted regardless of any campaign contact.

[cinyc]

What's the breakdown of the already voted crowd in this poll?

Also, Iowa is probably the Obama state most likely to turn red in the coming years. Let's face it, it's heavily rural, white, declining in population and aging. In the 2020s I expect Iowa to have an R+ PVI. States like Virginia, Florida, North Carolina and Colorado have a much higher likelihood of becoming blue states over the long term than Iowa.

I can't find it in the poll or crosstabs. 

37% of respondents already voted.  That includes 54% of Democrats, 33% of Republicans and 28% of Independents. 

12% of all likely voters didn't vote in the 2010 elections.  A greater percentage of Republicans (10%) than Democrats (7%) didn't vote in 2010.  The percentage of Independents who didn't vote in 2010 is greater than those from either party (19%).