IA: Selzer: RIP Braley

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

A lot of people are going to look really stupid on Wednesday.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

If you put these seats in context, I don't see how you could realistically call R+4 a wave.

I mean, you are, but I disagree that it is.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

One would probably argue now that anything LESS than R+6 would be a disappointing result, if we're basing it on 'expectations'.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Exactly, this is a mid-term election, more than that, the second mid-term. Add in the retirement of strong incumbents and the fact that once the personal vote is gone, they revert to their general voting mood...

Let's look at the second mid-term results for Presidents since the war, who were in office long enough, results are for the Party of the president.

1950 (Truman) - lost 28 seats in the House and 5 in the Senate
1958 (Eisenhower) - lost 48 seats in the House and 15 in the Senate
1986 (Reagan) - Lost 5 seats in the House and 8 seats in the Senate
1998 (Clinton) - No change in the House and picked up 5 seats in the Senate (special circumstances)
2006 (Bush II) - lost 30 seats in the House and lost 6 in the Senate

Note 1974 was Ford and was also a special circumstance wipe-out.

So the average of those 5 elections is 22 house seats lost and basically 6 Senate seats.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Well done Selzer.