IA: Selzer: RIP Braley (user search)
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  IA: Selzer: RIP Braley (search mode)
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Author Topic: IA: Selzer: RIP Braley  (Read 18757 times)
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

« on: November 02, 2014, 05:33:37 AM »

A lot of people are going to look really stupid on Wednesday.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

« Reply #1 on: November 02, 2014, 03:34:35 PM »

If you put these seats in context, I don't see how you could realistically call R+4 a wave.

I mean, you are, but I disagree that it is.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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*****
Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

« Reply #2 on: November 02, 2014, 04:54:35 PM »

One would probably argue now that anything LESS than R+6 would be a disappointing result, if we're basing it on 'expectations'.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

« Reply #3 on: November 02, 2014, 06:28:06 PM »

Exactly, this is a mid-term election, more than that, the second mid-term. Add in the retirement of strong incumbents and the fact that once the personal vote is gone, they revert to their general voting mood...

Let's look at the second mid-term results for Presidents since the war, who were in office long enough, results are for the Party of the president.

1950 (Truman) - lost 28 seats in the House and 5 in the Senate
1958 (Eisenhower) - lost 48 seats in the House and 15 in the Senate
1986 (Reagan) - Lost 5 seats in the House and 8 seats in the Senate
1998 (Clinton) - No change in the House and picked up 5 seats in the Senate (special circumstances)
2006 (Bush II) - lost 30 seats in the House and lost 6 in the Senate

Note 1974 was Ford and was also a special circumstance wipe-out.

So the average of those 5 elections is 22 house seats lost and basically 6 Senate seats.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

« Reply #4 on: November 05, 2014, 01:54:31 AM »

Well done Selzer.
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