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  IA: Selzer: RIP Braley		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: IA: Selzer: RIP Braley  (Read 14125 times)
Miles
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« on: November 01, 2014, 07:00:34 PM »
Link coming.

Ernst (R)- 51%
Braley (D)- 44%
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #1 on: November 01, 2014, 07:01:24 PM »
wtf
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #2 on: November 01, 2014, 07:02:34 PM »
WOW!
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cinyc
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« Reply #3 on: November 01, 2014, 07:03:59 PM »
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2014/11/01/iowa-poll-joni-ernst-leads-bruce-braley/18345157/
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #4 on: November 01, 2014, 07:04:13 PM »
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krazen1211
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« Reply #5 on: November 01, 2014, 07:04:28 PM »
Castrated!
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #6 on: November 01, 2014, 07:05:20 PM »
Outlier.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #7 on: November 01, 2014, 07:08:04 PM »
« Edited: November 01, 2014, 07:14:55 PM by IDS Emperor Maxwell »

I was about to say. Let's see some other polls before we come to conclusions. The PPP poll is something I'm looking forward to.

But yeah, RIP Buck Bentley
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Potus
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« Reply #8 on: November 01, 2014, 07:08:54 PM »
Squeal Bailey squeal!

Looks like "some farmer from Iowa" is gonna chair the judiciary committee.
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morgieb
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« Reply #9 on: November 01, 2014, 07:09:23 PM »
Ouch. Are Iowa and Wisconsin trolling us?
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Lincoln Councillor Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #10 on: November 01, 2014, 07:10:06 PM »
This is the state's gold standard poll, so even if it's off by a point or two, definitely not junk.

It's time to say goodbye to the worst campaigner after Martha Coakley....
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Associate Justice PiT
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« Reply #11 on: November 01, 2014, 07:11:02 PM »
Quote from: IDS Emperor Maxwell on November 01, 2014, 07:08:04 PM

I was about to say. Let's see some other polls before we come to conclusions. The PPP poll is something I'm looking forward to.

     Me too. It sure looks like an outlier, but with the PPP numbers that have come out so far this does not seem impossible.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #12 on: November 01, 2014, 07:11:06 PM »
And that's the ball game, folks. Soon we will have a turtle in control of the Senate. Oh joy.

Still, I highly doubt Ernst wins by this much. Even if Walker/Ernst win by slim margins, we'll need to start looking for new "gold standards" in IA/WI, which is a potentially interesting development.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #13 on: November 01, 2014, 07:14:16 PM »
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #14 on: November 01, 2014, 07:15:12 PM »

lol dude, the election hasn't even happened yet. Calm down.
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I'm a John Fetterman (or Malcolm Kenyatta) Democrat
20RP12
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« Reply #15 on: November 01, 2014, 07:16:43 PM »
Ugh god dammit Iowa.
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Miles
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« Reply #16 on: November 01, 2014, 07:20:33 PM »
Braley losing IA-01 by 3. Yikes.
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JRP1994
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« Reply #17 on: November 01, 2014, 07:22:17 PM »
I doubt Ernst leads by 7, but she almost certainly leads. And Brad Billingsly has run out of time.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #18 on: November 01, 2014, 07:35:39 PM »
Looks like Tuesday is a big make or break for the reputation's of Selzer and Marquette.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #19 on: November 01, 2014, 07:36:58 PM »

Don't blame Iowa, blame Brock Busterson
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sawx
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« Reply #20 on: November 01, 2014, 07:40:42 PM »
Christ.
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Illuminati Blood Drinker
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« Reply #21 on: November 01, 2014, 07:42:39 PM »
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Devils30
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« Reply #22 on: November 01, 2014, 07:44:32 PM »
Selzer and Marquette have a good history but its a very small sample size as they only poll single states. The numbers say Ernst should win by 1-2%, this poll is an outlier but it would be surprising to see Braley win at this point. Ernst only has a RCP lead of 1.8%.
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Devils30
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« Reply #23 on: November 01, 2014, 07:45:58 PM »
Branstad is also up way more than in other polls.
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cinyc
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« Reply #24 on: November 01, 2014, 07:49:54 PM »
Quote from: Devils30 on November 01, 2014, 07:44:32 PM
Selzer and Marquette have a good history but its a very small sample size as they only poll single states. The numbers say Ernst should win by 1-2%, this poll is an outlier but it would be surprising to see Braley win at this point. Ernst only has a RCP lead of 1.8%.

The sample size is 701, which is just fine for a statewide poll.  The MoE is +/- 3.7, which is lower than the usual +/- 4 we see for statewide polls.

Selzer has polled other states in past cycles.  I recall seeing a Selzer Ohio poll in 2012, but I might be wrong.
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