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February 28, 2021, 01:23:17 AM
Talk Elections
Election Archive
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2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls
2014 Senatorial Election Polls
IA: Selzer: RIP Braley
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Topic: IA: Selzer: RIP Braley (Read 14125 times)
Miles
MilesC56
Atlas Icon
Posts: 19,338
IA: Selzer: RIP Braley
«
on:
November 01, 2014, 07:00:34 PM »
Link coming.
Ernst (R)- 51%
Braley (D)- 44%
Logged
Lief 🐋
Lief
Atlas Legend
Posts: 42,106
Re: IA: Selzer: RIP Braley
«
Reply #1 on:
November 01, 2014, 07:01:24 PM »
wtf
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Keystone Phil
Atlas Institution
Posts: 52,647
Re: IA: Selzer: RIP Braley
«
Reply #2 on:
November 01, 2014, 07:02:34 PM »
WOW!
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cinyc
Atlas Icon
Posts: 12,518
Re: IA: Selzer: RIP Braley
«
Reply #3 on:
November 01, 2014, 07:03:59 PM »
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2014/11/01/iowa-poll-joni-ernst-leads-bruce-braley/18345157/
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RogueBeaver
Atlas Star
Posts: 20,022
Re: IA: Selzer: RIP Braley
«
Reply #4 on:
November 01, 2014, 07:04:13 PM »
Quote from: Keystone Phil on November 01, 2014, 07:02:34 PM
WOW!
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krazen1211
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 7,376
Re: IA: Selzer: RIP Braley
«
Reply #5 on:
November 01, 2014, 07:04:28 PM »
Castrated!
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Eraserhead
Atlas Legend
Posts: 43,767
Re: IA: Selzer: RIP Braley
«
Reply #6 on:
November 01, 2014, 07:05:20 PM »
Outlier.
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Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
Posts: 28,513
Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96
Re: IA: Selzer: RIP Braley
«
Reply #7 on:
November 01, 2014, 07:08:04 PM »
«
Edited:
November 01, 2014, 07:14:55 PM
by
IDS Emperor Maxwell »
Quote from: Eraserhead on November 01, 2014, 07:05:20 PM
Outlier.
I was about to say. Let's see some other polls before we come to conclusions. The PPP poll is something I'm looking forward to.
But yeah, RIP Buck Bentley
Logged
Potus
Potus2036
Jr. Member
Posts: 1,842
Re: IA: Selzer: RIP Braley
«
Reply #8 on:
November 01, 2014, 07:08:54 PM »
Squeal Bailey squeal!
Looks like "some farmer from Iowa" is gonna chair the judiciary committee.
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morgieb
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 8,568
Political Matrix
E: -7.55, S: -8.09
Re: IA: Selzer: RIP Braley
«
Reply #9 on:
November 01, 2014, 07:09:23 PM »
Ouch. Are Iowa and Wisconsin trolling us?
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Lincoln Councillor Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Star
Posts: 24,031
Political Matrix
E: -2.58, S: 0.35
Re: IA: Selzer: RIP Braley
«
Reply #10 on:
November 01, 2014, 07:10:06 PM »
This is the state's gold standard poll, so even if it's off by a point or two, definitely not junk.
It's time to say goodbye to the worst campaigner after Martha Coakley....
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Associate Justice PiT
PiT (The Physicist)
Moderators
Atlas Star
Posts: 29,324
Re: IA: Selzer: RIP Braley
«
Reply #11 on:
November 01, 2014, 07:11:02 PM »
Quote from: IDS Emperor Maxwell on November 01, 2014, 07:08:04 PM
Quote from: Eraserhead on November 01, 2014, 07:05:20 PM
Outlier.
I was about to say. Let's see some other polls before we come to conclusions. The PPP poll is something I'm looking forward to.
Me too. It sure looks like an outlier, but with the PPP numbers that have come out so far this does not seem impossible.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
Posts: 31,941
Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43
Re: IA: Selzer: RIP Braley
«
Reply #12 on:
November 01, 2014, 07:11:06 PM »
And that's the ball game, folks. Soon we will have a turtle in control of the Senate. Oh joy.
Still, I highly doubt Ernst wins by this much. Even if Walker/Ernst win by slim margins, we'll need to start looking for new "gold standards" in IA/WI, which is a potentially interesting development.
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krazen1211
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 7,376
Re: IA: Selzer: RIP Braley
«
Reply #13 on:
November 01, 2014, 07:14:16 PM »
Quote from: Invisible Obama on October 31, 2014, 01:01:08 PM
Braley is closing strong and will win.
Logged
Lief 🐋
Lief
Atlas Legend
Posts: 42,106
Re: IA: Selzer: RIP Braley
«
Reply #14 on:
November 01, 2014, 07:15:12 PM »
Quote from: krazen1211 on November 01, 2014, 07:14:16 PM
Quote from: Invisible Obama on October 31, 2014, 01:01:08 PM
Braley is closing strong and will win.
lol dude, the election hasn't even happened yet. Calm down.
Logged
I'm a John Fetterman (or Malcolm Kenyatta) Democrat
20RP12
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
Posts: 32,826
Political Matrix
E: -4.65, S: -6.61
Re: IA: Selzer: RIP Braley
«
Reply #15 on:
November 01, 2014, 07:16:43 PM »
Ugh god dammit Iowa.
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Miles
MilesC56
Atlas Icon
Posts: 19,338
Re: IA: Selzer: RIP Braley
«
Reply #16 on:
November 01, 2014, 07:20:33 PM »
Braley losing IA-01 by 3. Yikes.
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JRP1994
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,027
Re: IA: Selzer: RIP Braley
«
Reply #17 on:
November 01, 2014, 07:22:17 PM »
I doubt Ernst leads by 7, but she almost certainly leads. And Brad Billingsly has run out of time.
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Lief 🐋
Lief
Atlas Legend
Posts: 42,106
Re: IA: Selzer: RIP Braley
«
Reply #18 on:
November 01, 2014, 07:35:39 PM »
Looks like Tuesday is a big make or break for the reputation's of Selzer and Marquette.
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Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
Posts: 28,513
Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96
Re: IA: Selzer: RIP Braley
«
Reply #19 on:
November 01, 2014, 07:36:58 PM »
Quote from: R2D2 on November 01, 2014, 07:16:43 PM
Ugh god dammit Iowa.
Don't blame Iowa, blame Brock Busterson
Logged
sawx
SawxDem
Atlas Icon
Posts: 10,749
Re: IA: Selzer: RIP Braley
«
Reply #20 on:
November 01, 2014, 07:40:42 PM »
Christ.
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Illuminati Blood Drinker
phwezer
Jr. Member
Posts: 1,530
Political Matrix
E: -9.42, S: -7.30
Re: IA: Selzer: RIP Braley
«
Reply #21 on:
November 01, 2014, 07:42:39 PM »
Logged
Devils30
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,748
Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00
Re: IA: Selzer: RIP Braley
«
Reply #22 on:
November 01, 2014, 07:44:32 PM »
Selzer and Marquette have a good history but its a very small sample size as they only poll single states. The numbers say Ernst should win by 1-2%, this poll is an outlier but it would be surprising to see Braley win at this point. Ernst only has a RCP lead of 1.8%.
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Devils30
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,748
Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00
Re: IA: Selzer: RIP Braley
«
Reply #23 on:
November 01, 2014, 07:45:58 PM »
Branstad is also up way more than in other polls.
Logged
cinyc
Atlas Icon
Posts: 12,518
Re: IA: Selzer: RIP Braley
«
Reply #24 on:
November 01, 2014, 07:49:54 PM »
Quote from: Devils30 on November 01, 2014, 07:44:32 PM
Selzer and Marquette have a good history but its a very small sample size as they only poll single states. The numbers say Ernst should win by 1-2%, this poll is an outlier but it would be surprising to see Braley win at this point. Ernst only has a RCP lead of 1.8%.
The sample size is 701, which is just fine for a statewide poll. The MoE is +/- 3.7, which is lower than the usual +/- 4 we see for statewide polls.
Selzer has polled other states in past cycles. I recall seeing a Selzer Ohio poll in 2012, but I might be wrong.
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