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  IA: Selzer: RIP Braley
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Author Topic: IA: Selzer: RIP Braley  (Read 13247 times)
Devils30
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« Reply #25 on: November 01, 2014, 08:02:07 pm »

Again, I think Ernst is up but by a lot less than this.
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Miles
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« Reply #26 on: November 01, 2014, 08:03:40 pm »


Selzer has polled other states in past cycles.  I recall seeing a Selzer Ohio poll in 2012, but I might be wrong.

They polled CO, which was decent, and NH (way back in early 2011 though) .
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Devils30
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« Reply #27 on: November 01, 2014, 08:11:22 pm »

Oh, she's a good pollster. Has had outliers like this before though. http://www.npr.org/blogs/itsallpolitics/2012/06/22/155530608/bloomberg-pollster-defends-survey-showing-obama-with-big-lead
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cinyc
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« Reply #28 on: November 01, 2014, 08:11:47 pm »


Selzer has polled other states in past cycles.  I recall seeing a Selzer Ohio poll in 2012, but I might be wrong.

They polled CO, which was decent, and NH (way back in early 2011 though) .

As I thought, Selzer also polled Ohio in September 2012 for Bloomberg, though it's not in our database.
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cinyc
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« Reply #29 on: November 01, 2014, 08:48:46 pm »

From the poll.  Granted, the sample size was small, but...
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So much for the all hallowed ground game making much of a difference.  Every non-2010 voter would have voted regardless of any campaign contact.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #30 on: November 01, 2014, 08:49:42 pm »

I have had my doubts that Ernst would pull it out, but as I said a few weeks ago, I would base my final prediction based on Selzer's last poll.

It's not going to be a 7% win, but I'm officially predicting an Ernst win - probably around 51-47.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #31 on: November 01, 2014, 08:50:09 pm »

Let's hope that Obama and Reid pack the courts as quickly as possible during the lame duck. Maybe get Ginsburg to resign as well and ram a replacement through.
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Devils30
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« Reply #32 on: November 01, 2014, 09:14:21 pm »

What's the breakdown of the already voted crowd in this poll?

Also, Iowa is probably the Obama state most likely to turn red in the coming years. Let's face it, it's heavily rural, white, declining in population and aging. In the 2020s I expect Iowa to have an R+ PVI. States like Virginia, Florida, North Carolina and Colorado have a much higher likelihood of becoming blue states over the long term than Iowa.
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New_Conservative
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« Reply #33 on: November 01, 2014, 09:14:26 pm »

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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #34 on: November 01, 2014, 09:16:08 pm »


NEVER FORGET. The Dems' last hope in Iowa this year.
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Free Bird
TheHawk
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« Reply #35 on: November 01, 2014, 09:20:21 pm »

Ah, the desperation is delicious
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krazen1211
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« Reply #36 on: November 01, 2014, 09:20:29 pm »

Ernst is winning IA-02 in this poll. Which is hilarious, given this:

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A plugged-in Democratic House official said internal polling showed Braley trailing Republican Joni Ernst in all of the state's congressional districts, even those that typically favor Democrats.
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cinyc
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« Reply #37 on: November 01, 2014, 09:23:05 pm »

What's the breakdown of the already voted crowd in this poll?

Also, Iowa is probably the Obama state most likely to turn red in the coming years. Let's face it, it's heavily rural, white, declining in population and aging. In the 2020s I expect Iowa to have an R+ PVI. States like Virginia, Florida, North Carolina and Colorado have a much higher likelihood of becoming blue states over the long term than Iowa.

I can't find it in the poll or crosstabs

37% of respondents already voted.  That includes 54% of Democrats, 33% of Republicans and 28% of Independents. 

12% of all likely voters didn't vote in the 2010 elections.  A greater percentage of Republicans (10%) than Democrats (7%) didn't vote in 2010.  The percentage of Independents who didn't vote in 2010 is greater than those from either party (19%).
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backtored
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« Reply #38 on: November 01, 2014, 09:31:13 pm »

Quinnipiac and PPP will both have polls out probably Monday. But you don't need them to know that Iowa is likely going Republican. Ernst has been leading for a while.
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chrisras
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« Reply #39 on: November 01, 2014, 10:00:12 pm »

Yeah, this one is over.  Braley was a God awful candidate and Ernst is a very good candidate.  She has busted this thing wide open.  Cotton has done the same in Arkansas.  Gardner is doing well in Colorado. McConnell has busted his race open too.  I wonder if these races are picking up a GOP wave.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #40 on: November 01, 2014, 10:51:50 pm »


Take a long walk off of a short pier, okay? This poll isn't anything like what we've seen recently, so it's an outlier.
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Vosem
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« Reply #41 on: November 01, 2014, 10:59:41 pm »


If he's like this now, can y'all imagine how much fun Election Night will be here?
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DrScholl
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« Reply #42 on: November 01, 2014, 11:04:42 pm »


If he's like this now, can y'all imagine how much fun Election Night will be here?

I'll get over it if Democrats lose, so don't expect anything to entertain you. I'm not a Republican, thank god.
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Devils30
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« Reply #43 on: November 01, 2014, 11:13:50 pm »

If it's a 2 point Ernst win then Braley most likely wins IA-1 and 2. Braley I guess was a bit overrated from the start, barely survived in 2010 and his 2012 margin was the same as Obama in that district. A stronger Dem would have won by more than 1 point in 2010s version of IA-1.
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Vosem
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« Reply #44 on: November 01, 2014, 11:17:03 pm »


If he's like this now, can y'all imagine how much fun Election Night will be here?

I'll get over it if Democrats lose, so don't expect anything to entertain you. I'm not a Republican, thank god.


Keep talking, brah
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krazen1211
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« Reply #45 on: November 01, 2014, 11:23:31 pm »


Take a long walk off of a short pier, okay? This poll isn't anything like what we've seen recently, so it's an outlier.

The only outlier is your own words.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #46 on: November 01, 2014, 11:27:25 pm »


Take a long walk off of a short pier, okay? This poll isn't anything like what we've seen recently, so it's an outlier.

The only outlier is your own words.

No, look at the RCP average that you cherish so much, there hasn't been a poll with this wide of a spread in weeks.
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Recalcuate
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« Reply #47 on: November 01, 2014, 11:41:21 pm »

Quinnipiac and PPP will both have polls out probably Monday. But you don't need them to know that Iowa is likely going Republican. Ernst has been leading for a while.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #48 on: November 01, 2014, 11:53:14 pm »


Take a long walk off of a short pier, okay? This poll isn't anything like what we've seen recently, so it's an outlier.

The only outlier is your own words.

No, look at the RCP average that you cherish so much, there hasn't been a poll with this wide of a spread in weeks.

Ernst is closing strong.

There has not been a Braley lead in the RCP average in months. Didn't stop you.
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Recalcuate
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« Reply #49 on: November 01, 2014, 11:56:51 pm »

Looks like Tuesday is a big make or break for the reputation's of Selzer and Marquette.

Or possibly PPP here.

You have two differing visions about what's going on with the 2014 electorate. The state Gold standard polls are detecting a very noticeable shift to the Republicans in WI and IA at least.  Some of the other pollsters seem to think more Democrats will head to the polls.

PPP is kind of hedging with predictions on states like KY and AR to make make them look more favorable to the Rs. It will be interesting to see what they do with IA when they release their own final poll.

As far as Iowa goes, Ernst has had a small, but persistent lead for a while now. The race was leaning in her direction. Seltzer confirms that.
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