Talk Elections
Forum
Contact
|
US Election Atlas
Election 2020
Election Results
Election Info
Atlas Wiki
Welcome,
Guest
. Please
login
or
register
.
Did you miss your
activation email?
February 26, 2021, 10:49:08 AM
Talk Elections
Election Archive
Election Archive
2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls
2014 Senatorial Election Polls
IA: Selzer: RIP Braley
« previous
next »
Pages:
1
[
2
]
3
4
Author
Topic: IA: Selzer: RIP Braley (Read 14118 times)
Devils30
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,746
Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00
Re: IA: Selzer: RIP Braley
«
Reply #25 on:
November 01, 2014, 08:02:07 PM »
Again, I think Ernst is up but by a lot less than this.
Logged
Miles
MilesC56
Atlas Icon
Posts: 19,338
Re: IA: Selzer: RIP Braley
«
Reply #26 on:
November 01, 2014, 08:03:40 PM »
Quote from: cinyc on November 01, 2014, 07:49:54 PM
Selzer has polled other states in past cycles. I recall seeing a Selzer Ohio poll in 2012, but I might be wrong.
They
polled CO, which was decent,
and NH (way back in early 2011 though) .
Logged
Devils30
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,746
Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00
Re: IA: Selzer: RIP Braley
«
Reply #27 on:
November 01, 2014, 08:11:22 PM »
Oh, she's a good pollster. Has had outliers like this before though.
http://www.npr.org/blogs/itsallpolitics/2012/06/22/155530608/bloomberg-pollster-defends-survey-showing-obama-with-big-lead
Logged
cinyc
Atlas Icon
Posts: 12,518
Re: IA: Selzer: RIP Braley
«
Reply #28 on:
November 01, 2014, 08:11:47 PM »
Quote from: Miles on November 01, 2014, 08:03:40 PM
Quote from: cinyc on November 01, 2014, 07:49:54 PM
Selzer has polled other states in past cycles. I recall seeing a Selzer Ohio poll in 2012, but I might be wrong.
They
polled CO, which was decent,
and NH (way back in early 2011 though) .
As I thought, Selzer also
polled Ohio in September 2012
for Bloomberg, though it's not in our database.
Logged
cinyc
Atlas Icon
Posts: 12,518
Re: IA: Selzer: RIP Braley
«
Reply #29 on:
November 01, 2014, 08:48:46 PM »
From the
poll
. Granted, the sample size was small, but...
Quote
You must be
logged in
to read this quote.
So much for the all hallowed ground game making much of a difference. Every non-2010 voter would have voted regardless of any campaign contact.
Logged
tmthforu94
Atlas Politician
Atlas Star
Posts: 22,188
Political Matrix
E: 2.97, S: -1.57
Re: IA: Selzer: RIP Braley
«
Reply #30 on:
November 01, 2014, 08:49:42 PM »
I have had my doubts that Ernst would pull it out, but as I said a few weeks ago, I would base my final prediction based on Selzer's last poll.
It's not going to be a 7% win, but I'm officially predicting an Ernst win - probably around 51-47.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
Posts: 31,941
Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43
Re: IA: Selzer: RIP Braley
«
Reply #31 on:
November 01, 2014, 08:50:09 PM »
Let's hope that Obama and Reid pack the courts as quickly as possible during the lame duck. Maybe get Ginsburg to resign as well and ram a replacement through.
Logged
Devils30
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,746
Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00
Re: IA: Selzer: RIP Braley
«
Reply #32 on:
November 01, 2014, 09:14:21 PM »
What's the breakdown of the already voted crowd in this poll?
Also, Iowa is probably the Obama state most likely to turn red in the coming years. Let's face it, it's heavily rural, white, declining in population and aging. In the 2020s I expect Iowa to have an R+ PVI. States like Virginia, Florida, North Carolina and Colorado have a much higher likelihood of becoming blue states over the long term than Iowa.
Logged
New_Conservative
Jr. Member
Posts: 1,141
Re: IA: Selzer: RIP Braley
«
Reply #33 on:
November 01, 2014, 09:14:26 PM »
Quote from: krazen1211 on November 01, 2014, 07:04:28 PM
Castrated!
Logged
Keystone Phil
Atlas Institution
Posts: 52,647
Re: IA: Selzer: RIP Braley
«
Reply #34 on:
November 01, 2014, 09:16:08 PM »
Quote from: krazen1211 on November 01, 2014, 07:43:53 PM
NEVER FORGET. The Dems' last hope in Iowa this year.
Logged
Free Bird
TheHawk
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 5,929
Political Matrix
E: 0.84, S: -5.48
Re: IA: Selzer: RIP Braley
«
Reply #35 on:
November 01, 2014, 09:20:21 PM »
Ah, the desperation is delicious
Logged
krazen1211
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 7,376
Re: IA: Selzer: RIP Braley
«
Reply #36 on:
November 01, 2014, 09:20:29 PM »
Ernst is winning IA-02 in this poll. Which is hilarious, given this:
Link
A plugged-in Democratic House official said internal polling showed Braley trailing Republican Joni Ernst in all of the state's congressional districts, even those that typically favor Democrats.
Logged
cinyc
Atlas Icon
Posts: 12,518
Re: IA: Selzer: RIP Braley
«
Reply #37 on:
November 01, 2014, 09:23:05 PM »
Quote from: Devils30 on November 01, 2014, 09:14:21 PM
What's the breakdown of the already voted crowd in this poll?
Also, Iowa is probably the Obama state most likely to turn red in the coming years. Let's face it, it's heavily rural, white, declining in population and aging. In the 2020s I expect Iowa to have an R+ PVI. States like Virginia, Florida, North Carolina and Colorado have a much higher likelihood of becoming blue states over the long term than Iowa.
I can't find it in the
poll
or
crosstabs
.
37% of respondents already voted. That includes 54% of Democrats, 33% of Republicans and 28% of Independents.
12% of all likely voters didn't vote in the 2010 elections. A greater percentage of Republicans (10%) than Democrats (7%) didn't vote in 2010. The percentage of Independents who didn't vote in 2010 is greater than those from either party (19%).
Logged
backtored
Jr. Member
Posts: 502
Re: IA: Selzer: RIP Braley
«
Reply #38 on:
November 01, 2014, 09:31:13 PM »
Quinnipiac and PPP will both have polls out probably Monday. But you don't need them to know that Iowa is likely going Republican. Ernst has been leading for a while.
Logged
chrisras
Rookie
Posts: 78
Re: IA: Selzer: RIP Braley
«
Reply #39 on:
November 01, 2014, 10:00:12 PM »
Yeah, this one is over. Braley was a God awful candidate and Ernst is a very good candidate. She has busted this thing wide open. Cotton has done the same in Arkansas. Gardner is doing well in Colorado. McConnell has busted his race open too. I wonder if these races are picking up a GOP wave.
Logged
DrScholl
Atlas Icon
Posts: 13,015
Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -3.30
Re: IA: Selzer: RIP Braley
«
Reply #40 on:
November 01, 2014, 10:51:50 PM »
Quote from: krazen1211 on November 01, 2014, 07:14:16 PM
Quote from: Invisible Obama on October 31, 2014, 01:01:08 PM
Braley is closing strong and will win.
Take a long walk off of a short pier, okay? This poll isn't anything like what we've seen recently, so it's an outlier.
Logged
Vosem
Atlas Icon
Posts: 10,303
Political Matrix
E: 4.13, S: -6.26
Re: IA: Selzer: RIP Braley
«
Reply #41 on:
November 01, 2014, 10:59:41 PM »
Quote from: Invisible Obama on November 01, 2014, 10:51:50 PM
Quote from: krazen1211 on November 01, 2014, 07:14:16 PM
Quote from: Invisible Obama on October 31, 2014, 01:01:08 PM
Braley is closing strong and will win.
Take a long walk off of a short pier, okay?
If he's like this now, can y'all imagine how much fun Election Night will be here?
Logged
DrScholl
Atlas Icon
Posts: 13,015
Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -3.30
Re: IA: Selzer: RIP Braley
«
Reply #42 on:
November 01, 2014, 11:04:42 PM »
Quote from: Vosem on November 01, 2014, 10:59:41 PM
Quote from: Invisible Obama on November 01, 2014, 10:51:50 PM
Quote from: krazen1211 on November 01, 2014, 07:14:16 PM
Quote from: Invisible Obama on October 31, 2014, 01:01:08 PM
Braley is closing strong and will win.
Take a long walk off of a short pier, okay?
If he's like this now, can y'all imagine how much fun Election Night will be here?
I'll get over it if Democrats lose, so don't expect anything to entertain you. I'm not a Republican, thank god.
Logged
Devils30
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,746
Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00
Re: IA: Selzer: RIP Braley
«
Reply #43 on:
November 01, 2014, 11:13:50 PM »
If it's a 2 point Ernst win then Braley most likely wins IA-1 and 2. Braley I guess was a bit overrated from the start, barely survived in 2010 and his 2012 margin was the same as Obama in that district. A stronger Dem would have won by more than 1 point in 2010s version of IA-1.
Logged
Vosem
Atlas Icon
Posts: 10,303
Political Matrix
E: 4.13, S: -6.26
Re: IA: Selzer: RIP Braley
«
Reply #44 on:
November 01, 2014, 11:17:03 PM »
Quote from: Invisible Obama on November 01, 2014, 11:04:42 PM
Quote from: Vosem on November 01, 2014, 10:59:41 PM
Quote from: Invisible Obama on November 01, 2014, 10:51:50 PM
Quote from: krazen1211 on November 01, 2014, 07:14:16 PM
Quote from: Invisible Obama on October 31, 2014, 01:01:08 PM
Braley is closing strong and will win.
Take a long walk off of a short pier, okay?
If he's like this now, can y'all imagine how much fun Election Night will be here?
I'll get over it if Democrats lose, so don't expect anything to entertain you. I'm not a Republican, thank god.
Keep talking, brah
Logged
krazen1211
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 7,376
Re: IA: Selzer: RIP Braley
«
Reply #45 on:
November 01, 2014, 11:23:31 PM »
Quote from: Invisible Obama on November 01, 2014, 10:51:50 PM
Quote from: krazen1211 on November 01, 2014, 07:14:16 PM
Quote from: Invisible Obama on October 31, 2014, 01:01:08 PM
Braley is closing strong and will win.
Take a long walk off of a short pier, okay? This poll isn't anything like what we've seen recently, so it's an outlier.
The only outlier is your own words.
Logged
DrScholl
Atlas Icon
Posts: 13,015
Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -3.30
Re: IA: Selzer: RIP Braley
«
Reply #46 on:
November 01, 2014, 11:27:25 PM »
Quote from: krazen1211 on November 01, 2014, 11:23:31 PM
Quote from: Invisible Obama on November 01, 2014, 10:51:50 PM
Quote from: krazen1211 on November 01, 2014, 07:14:16 PM
Quote from: Invisible Obama on October 31, 2014, 01:01:08 PM
Braley is closing strong and will win.
Take a long walk off of a short pier, okay? This poll isn't anything like what we've seen recently, so it's an outlier.
The only outlier is your own words.
No, look at the RCP average that you cherish so much, there hasn't been a poll with this wide of a spread in weeks.
Logged
Recalcuate
Jr. Member
Posts: 444
Re: IA: Selzer: RIP Braley
«
Reply #47 on:
November 01, 2014, 11:41:21 PM »
Quote from: backtored on November 01, 2014, 09:31:13 PM
Quinnipiac and PPP will both have polls out probably Monday. But you don't need them to know that Iowa is likely going Republican. Ernst has been leading for a while.
Logged
krazen1211
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 7,376
Re: IA: Selzer: RIP Braley
«
Reply #48 on:
November 01, 2014, 11:53:14 PM »
Quote from: Invisible Obama on November 01, 2014, 11:27:25 PM
Quote from: krazen1211 on November 01, 2014, 11:23:31 PM
Quote from: Invisible Obama on November 01, 2014, 10:51:50 PM
Quote from: krazen1211 on November 01, 2014, 07:14:16 PM
Quote from: Invisible Obama on October 31, 2014, 01:01:08 PM
Braley is closing strong and will win.
Take a long walk off of a short pier, okay? This poll isn't anything like what we've seen recently, so it's an outlier.
The only outlier is your own words.
No, look at the RCP average that you cherish so much, there hasn't been a poll with this wide of a spread in weeks.
Ernst is closing strong.
There has not been a Braley lead in the RCP average in months. Didn't stop you.
Logged
Recalcuate
Jr. Member
Posts: 444
Re: IA: Selzer: RIP Braley
«
Reply #49 on:
November 01, 2014, 11:56:51 PM »
Quote from: Lief on November 01, 2014, 07:35:39 PM
Looks like Tuesday is a big make or break for the reputation's of Selzer and Marquette.
Or possibly PPP here.
You have two differing visions about what's going on with the 2014 electorate. The state Gold standard polls are detecting a very noticeable shift to the Republicans in WI and IA at least. Some of the other pollsters seem to think more Democrats will head to the polls.
PPP is kind of hedging with predictions on states like KY and AR to make make them look more favorable to the Rs. It will be interesting to see what they do with IA when they release their own final poll.
As far as Iowa goes, Ernst has had a small, but persistent lead for a while now. The race was leaning in her direction. Seltzer confirms that.
Logged
Pages:
1
[
2
]
3
4
« previous
next »
Jump to:
Please select a destination:
-----------------------------
Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
-----------------------------
=> 2024 U.S. Presidential Election
===> 2024 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
===> 2024 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls
=> 2020 U.S. Presidential Election
===> 2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
===> 2020 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls
=> U.S. Presidential Election Results
===> 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Results
===> 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results
===> 2008 U.S. Presidential Election Results
===> 2004 U.S. Presidential Election Results
===> 2000 U.S. Presidential Election Results
=> Presidential Election Process
===> Polling
=> Presidential Election Trends
=> Election What-ifs?
===> Past Election What-ifs (US)
===> Alternative Elections
===> International What-ifs
-----------------------------
Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
-----------------------------
=> Gubernatorial/State Elections
===> 2022 Gubernatorial Election Polls
===> 2021 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls
=> Congressional Elections
===> 2022 Senate & House Election Polls
=> International Elections
=> Election Predictions
-----------------------------
About this Site
-----------------------------
===> How To
=> The Atlas
-----------------------------
General Discussion
-----------------------------
=> Constitution and Law
=> Religion & Philosophy
=> History
===> Alternative History
-----------------------------
General Politics
-----------------------------
=> U.S. General Discussion
=> Political Geography & Demographics
=> International General Discussion
=> Economics
=> Individual Politics
=> Political Debate
===> Political Essays & Deliberation
===> Book Reviews and Discussion
-----------------------------
Election Archive
-----------------------------
=> Election Archive
===> 2018 Senatorial Election Polls
===> 2018 Gubernatorial Election Polls
===> 2016 U.S. Presidential Election
===> 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
===> 2016 Senatorial Election Polls
===> 2016 Gubernatorial Election Polls
===> 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls
===> 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls
=====> 2014 House Election Polls
=====> 2014 Senatorial Election Polls
===> 2012 Elections
=====> 2012 Senatorial Election Polls
=====> 2012 House Election Polls
=====> 2012 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls
=====> 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
=====> 2012 Gubernatorial Election Polls
===> 2010 Elections
=====> 2010 House Election Polls
=====> 2010 Senatorial Election Polls
=====> 2010 Gubernatorial Election Polls
===> 2008 Elections
=====> 2008 Senatorial Election Polls
=====> 2008 Gubernatorial Election Polls
=====> 2008 U.S. Presidential Election Campaign
=====> 2008 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
=====> 2008 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls
===> 2006 Elections
=====> 2006 Senatorial Election Polls
=====> 2006 Gubernatorial Election Polls
===> 2004 U.S. Presidential Election
=====> 2004 U.S. Presidential Election Campaign
=====> 2004 U.S. Presidential Election Polls
===> Town Hall
===> Survivor
===> 2020 Gubernatorial Election Polls
===> 2020 Senate & House Election Polls
-----------------------------
Forum Community
-----------------------------
=> Forum Community
===> Forum Community Election Match-ups
=> Election and History Games
===> Mock Parliament
=> Off-topic Board
-----------------------------
Atlas Fantasy Elections
-----------------------------
=> Atlas Fantasy Elections
===> Voting Booth
=> Atlas Fantasy Government
===> Constitutional Convention
===> Regional Governments
1 Hour
1 Day
1 Week
1 Month
Forever
Login with username, password and session length
Terms of Service
-
DMCA Agent and Policy
-
Privacy Policy and Cookies
Powered by SMF 1.1.21
|
SMF © 2015, Simple Machines
Page created in 0.043 seconds with 13 queries.
Loading...