2014 US Congressional Election Results

[Recalcuate]

AK Senate Update - 86% in

UNITED STATES SENATOR      
Total
Number of Precincts      441   
Precincts Reporting      378   85.7%
Times Counted      214334/509011   42.1%
Total Votes      212342   
Begich, Mark   DEM   94171   44.35%
Fish, Mark S.   LIB   7814   3.68%
Gianoutsos, Ted   NA   4178   1.97%
Sullivan, Dan   REP   105218   49.55%
Write-in Votes      961   0.45%

[IceSpear]

Wow, Horsford goes down in NV-04. 48-46 with 97% in.

[cinyc]

AK Senate Update - 86% in

UNITED STATES SENATOR      
Total
Number of Precincts      441   
Precincts Reporting      378   85.7%
Times Counted      214334/509011   42.1%
Total Votes      212342   
Begich, Mark   DEM   94171   44.35%
Fish, Mark S.   LIB   7814   3.68%
Gianoutsos, Ted   NA   4178   1.97%
Sullivan, Dan   REP   105218   49.55%
Write-in Votes      961   0.45%

All of Kenai (heavy R), Fairbanks (marginal R) and Southeast Alaska (marginal D) are in.  98% of the heavy R Mat-Su is in.  93% of the Kodiak-based HD is in.  92% of bellwether Anchorage is in.  86% of the state.  And only 67% of precincts in the D-leaning Bush.  Those Bush precincts are probably relatively sparsely populated.  So it probably tightens from here.

[Matty]

I think we can call it for Sullivan.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Having been away for most of the day, all I've got to say is congratulations to all the new Republican Senators, especially Cotton, Ernst and Gardner!

As for the House, well done to Brat and Love in particular.

[cinyc]

I think we can call it for Sullivan.

One caveat is that, per Fox News, there are 20,000 or so early and absentee votes yet to be counted.  Those usually trend more D than the election day vote.  But it's still probably not enough for Begich.  Walker, on the other hand...

[SPQR]

In the meanwhile,Ige has won HI-Gov with 49.5% to ruin further most users' predictions

[Recalcuate]

Wow, Horsford goes down in NV-04. 48-46 with 97% in.

Yeah and as of a few minutes ago when I looked, Republicans have a shot at possible gains in CA-7, CA-16, CA-26, CA-52, AZ-2 and ME-2, too.

Dems can pick up NE-2 and CA-31.

NY-25 has been overlooked but pending absentee ballots, long-time incumbent Louise Slaughter is a few hundred votes ahead of her Republican challenger. Unlikely to switch, but that race was assumed safe.

[Recalcuate]

Alaska - 94% of the vote in

UNITED STATES SENATOR      
Total
Number of Precincts      441   
Precincts Reporting      415   94.1%
Times Counted      220312/509011   43.3%
Total Votes      218260   
Begich, Mark   DEM   97852   44.83%
Fish, Mark S.   LIB   8041   3.68%
Gianoutsos, Ted   NA   4304   1.97%
Sullivan, Dan   REP   107079   49.06%
Write-in Votes      984   0.45%

[cinyc]

Alaska - 94% of the vote in

UNITED STATES SENATOR      
Total
Number of Precincts      441   
Precincts Reporting      415   94.1%
Times Counted      220312/509011   43.3%
Total Votes      218260   
Begich, Mark   DEM   97852   44.83%
Fish, Mark S.   LIB   8041   3.68%
Gianoutsos, Ted   NA   4304   1.97%
Sullivan, Dan   REP   107079   49.06%
Write-in Votes      984   0.45%

Bush up to 88% reporting.  Anchorage up to 94%.  Mat-Su is missing 1 precinct.  All the rest is in. 

There's no way Begich wins this.

[IceSpear]

100% in in HI-01, and Takai won 52-48. Knew this one would be very close.

[Recalcuate]

Alaska narrows... 97% of the vote in.

UNITED STATES SENATOR      
Total
Number of Precincts      441   
Precincts Reporting      427   96.8%
Times Counted      226050/509011   44.4%
Total Votes      223953   
Begich, Mark   DEM   100565   44.90%
Fish, Mark S.   LIB   8256   3.69%
Gianoutsos, Ted   NA   4415   1.97%
Sullivan, Dan   REP   109716   48.99%
Write-in Votes      1001   0.45%

[cinyc]

UNITED STATES SENATOR      
      Total
Number of Precincts       441    
Precincts Reporting       427    96.8%
Times Counted       226050/509011    44.4%
Total Votes       223953    
Begich, Mark    DEM    100565    44.90%
Fish, Mark S.    LIB    8256    3.69%
Gianoutsos, Ted    NA    4415    1.97%
Sullivan, Dan    REP    109716    48.99%
Write-in Votes      1001    0.45%

All that's left of the election day vote is 14 precincts in the Bush.  5 in the Dillingham-Aleutian based HD-37.  5 in the Bethel-based HD-38.   2 in the Nome-based HD-39.  And 2 in the Northern HD-40.

Plus, 20,000 or so uncounted absentee/early votes.  All likely skew D, so the race could still tighten.  But Sullivan should have this.

[Matty]

That vote barely narrowed. Sullivan has got this

[Recalcuate]

That vote barely narrowed. Sullivan has got this

Don't mind me. My eyes aren't the best at this hour.

Assuming there are about 20,000 ballots left (including the Bush), they'd have to break about 3:1 in favor of Begich in order for him to win. I doubt a 15K-5K sample is very likely.

[SPQR]

It'll probably end up as a 3% loss for Begich.
What a shame.

[Matty]

so polling wasn't really off there.

[Nichlemn]

I just realised something  - this is the first election since the rise of the Tea Party to not feature at least one Republican "giveaway" for being too conservative. Was there even a clear example in the House?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I just realised something  - this is the first election since the rise of the Tea Party to not feature at least one Republican "giveaway" for being too conservative. Was there even a clear example in the House?

Guys, being too conservative didn't stop Johnson from winning in WI in 2010, Toomey from winning in PA in 2010, or Ernst from winning in IA in 2014. It's about time the Democrats learned that they'd do better if they ran candidates who actually stood for something. The Democratic leadership currently gets a grade of F-.

[cinyc]

Via a Fox News reporter on Twitter:

Chad PergramVerified account ‏@ChadPergram

On Senate race, AK Division of Elections says it has "22,000 absentee/early votes to tally + a potential of 13,800 plus to be received..."

[Boston Bread]

The tea party has normalized radicalism. They win tonight even if their candidates didn't get in.
Looking at ~247 R house seats taking into account the favourable CA late counting. There wasn't even a Bachmann phenomenon. Crackpots didn't underform meaningfully. Sad, sad.

[IceSpear]

I just realised something  - this is the first election since the rise of the Tea Party to not feature at least one Republican "giveaway" for being too conservative. Was there even a clear example in the House?

It should've been Ernst, but the media was too enamored with her "folksiness" to pin her with the extremist label.

[Matty]

I think the most interesting thing from here is to see how democrats address a very obvious "midterm electorate" problem. They did well in early voting, but damn did some places, especially important precincts in NC, let them down today.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Ann Kirkpatrick up 53.4%-46.8% in AZ-1.  Wow.  And Barber down 36 votes in AZ-2. 

[IceSpear]

Ann Kirkpatrick up 53.4%-46.8% in AZ-1.  Wow.  And Barber down 36 votes in AZ-2. 

Damn, Kirkpatrick is a beast. I'm pretty sure Barber trailed in the early AM of 2012 too, so assuming the counting is the same, he should pull it out. But who knows.