2016 Republican Nomination Poll - November 2014

[Senator Cris]

I will post the graphic in the next days.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I voted Rand Paul, but I really just don't even know at this point. Once again, he seems to be the only one who has a real chance in all the early primaries. Walker may surprise though.

[Maxwell]

Totally clueless, so I voted for who I want to win (Rand Paul).

[Suburbia]

Pence.

[New_Conservative]

Who I want to win? Jeb Bush
Who will win? I don't know, I voted Rand Paul.

[Senator Cris]

October results.

Rand Paul   14.6%
Mitt Romney 14.6%
Jeb Bush 12.2%
Chris Christie 8.5%
Ted Cruz 7.3%
Scott Walker 6.1%
John Kasich 6.1%
Mike Pence 6.1%
Marco Rubio 3.7%
Paul Ryan 3.7%
Mike Huckabee 3.7%

[IceSpear]

I've never not voted for Walker in this. Hopefully next month I'll have to switch.

[Likely Voter]

Lindsey Graham has made a compelling case for us white men, but still think Pence will win

[MATTROSE94]

I really don't know at this point. I am still leaning towards Ted Cruz, but that could change.

[BaconBacon96]

With the Romney talk seemingly over, I'm leaning back towards Pence.

[New_Conservative]

I really don't know at this point. I am still leaning towards Ted Cruz, but that could change.

Why do you think Ted Cruz?

[Bull Moose Base]

I really don't think anyone has a better than 10% chance to win the nomination. This might be the last month that's true since it's partly a factor of so much confusion as to who runs. But even as the field takes shape, possible late entrants like Pence and unknown variable keep things volatile. 4 years ago, Pawlenty was one of two establishment-approved candidates, and the one who was more conservative and evangelical instead of Mormon. By August, he was out, Perry was in and on his way to double digit leads. A few weeks later, Christie who would had been, stronger than Shermanesque even, seemed about 50/50 to jump in. And this cycle is even harder to predict.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I still think Rand Paul is ahead until a solid establishment candidate is established.

[Consciously Unconscious]

It depends on if Walker wins reelection on Tuesday.  If he does, then it's him.  If not, then it's Bush.

[Deus Naturae]

I'll go with Jindal.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Going with Paul, Walker is my second pick, although this all depends on what happens on Tuesday.

[GLPman]

Sticking with Christie

[MATTROSE94]

I really don't know at this point. I am still leaning towards Ted Cruz, but that could change.

Why do you think Ted Cruz?

There are two reasons why I believe Ted Cruz has a decent shot at the Republican nomination:

1. On many issues, Ted Cruz is a dream candidate for the conservative movement and is possibly the best prospective candidate that the conservative movement had since Ronald Reagan and Barry Goldwater.
2. The primary map seems to be somewhat favorable for him. Ted Cruz has most of the South locked up and could do well in several other states due to vote-splitting between several of the other candidates for the Republican nomination.

[ShadowRocket]

Voted Christie, but I'm not counting out Walker (should he be reelected) or Pence.

[Rockefeller GOP]

Christie.

[eric82oslo]

I think the most likely scenario now is that the primary season will turn into a three way race in the end between a mainstream Republican (Romney seems by far the strongest option at the moment), a libertarian (obviously Rand Paul is the only one to fit here) and a staunchly conservative tea partier (Ted Cruz seems like the obvious choice, although he could get seriously stiff competition from guys like Mike Huckabee, Ben Carson and possibly even a resurrected Santorum and/or Rick Perry). So, I'd say it will come down to a fight between Romney, Rand Paul and Cruz, of which Cruz would be the one having to say the first adios due to his lackluster general election standing and his almost non-existance in big, moderate states like Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and so on. In the end, Romney will appear as a much less controversial choice than Rand Paul among the conservative primary electorate, so he will come out of the two horse fight by a win of anywhere between 55-45 and 65-35 in his favour. In the end, it won't matter too much though, as Romney almost certainly will pick Rand Paul as his running mate, close to the only possible option Romney will have to expand his appeal to other demographics which he brilliantly turned off in 2012.

[Mehmentum]

If either Bush or Romney get the nomination, American politics will have officially become a parody of itself. 

[New_Conservative]

Romney is not running...

[Jerseyrules]

I really doubt it'll be any of the majorly-discussed people out there.  I really think it's gonna be a major dark horse like Susana Martinez or more likely one of the two main guys from Ohio, either Governor John Kasich or Senator Rob Portman.  I feel like there's going to be a lot of negative campaigning - enough to destroy Rubio, Paul, and/or Christie.  Jeb Bush will probably get destroyed because of his last name, even in the primary.

[Ljube]

I like your reasoning. It is spot on.

The only thing I disagree with is a long, drawn out primary. Priebus said he wouldn't allow it. he wants the nominee decided by the beginning of March.