FL-Gov, SEA: Great Scott in the lead

[Recalcuate]

So, real polls show Crist in the lead, and garbage polls show Scott in the lead. And this race is characterized as a tossup?

I can see these political forecasting meetings now:

"Well, the pros are showing that Charlie Crist is going to defeat Scott, but the idiots who don't know what they're doing are all showing a Rick Scott lead--I don't know who to believe!"

The race is a tossup because the majority of the polling has the race with either a tie or slight Crist lead. It's worth noting that this particular poll was for a left-leaning group.

At the end of the day, the race slightly leans Crist, but he doesn't really have a persistent lead outside of the margin of error to call it anything other than a tossup.

[Recalcuate]

So, real polls show Crist in the lead, and garbage polls show Scott in the lead. And this race is characterized as a tossup?

I can see these political forecasting meetings now:

"Well, the pros are showing that Charlie Crist is going to defeat Scott, but the idiots who don't know what they're doing are all showing a Rick Scott lead--I don't know who to believe!"

The race is a tossup because the majority of the polling has the race with either a tie or slight Crist lead. It's worth noting that this particular poll was for a left-leaning group.

At the end of the day, the race slightly leans Crist, but he doesn't really have a persistent lead outside of the margin of error to call it anything other than a tossup.

So then Begich is ahead by 10 because that was done by a right-leaning group.

I didn't know that I was stating anything other than fact there. Putting bias out there is important for discussion. Wasn't my conclusion that Crist leads?

Alaska is a different animal all together and irrelevant for this discussion.

[Recalcuate]

So, real polls show Crist in the lead, and garbage polls show Scott in the lead. And this race is characterized as a tossup?

I can see these political forecasting meetings now:

"Well, the pros are showing that Charlie Crist is going to defeat Scott, but the idiots who don't know what they're doing are all showing a Rick Scott lead--I don't know who to believe!"

The race is a tossup because the majority of the polling has the race with either a tie or slight Crist lead. It's worth noting that this particular poll was for a left-leaning group.

At the end of the day, the race slightly leans Crist, but he doesn't really have a persistent lead outside of the margin of error to call it anything other than a tossup.

The reliable pollsters are all in consensus that Crist has a small lead. Just because his lead is small, it doesn't mean it doesn't exist.

No one is denying that Crist has a small lead (less than 1% according to 538).

He's a slight 3:2 favorite. (60% according to 538). However, it's nowhere near certain that he wins.

Technically, the Florida governors race belongs in the tossup category, leaning towards Crist. It's not a given that he wins.