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  AK-Rasmussen: Sullivan +5 (search mode)
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Author Topic: AK-Rasmussen: Sullivan +5  (Read 1372 times)
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Posts: 444


« on: October 31, 2014, 10:36:58 am »

How accurate are those early numbers compared to what has been returned so far? Was Alaska one of the states with a Dem advantage in early voting?

It's Rasmussen, but... You're talking about 11% of all votes cast early in Alaska according to the Elections Project. Much ado about nothing statistically. A likely MOE of about 9-10% on the subsample.

Sourcing: http://www.electproject.org/2014_early_vote
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Posts: 444


« Reply #1 on: October 31, 2014, 11:09:07 am »

Begich up 17% with early voters, down 6% with those certain to vote, and somehow down 5% overall? Yeah, alrght. Lol.

It's Rasmussen-less Rasmussen, so take any of those numbers with a grain of salt.

However, there's not enough early vote out really to make that much of a material difference. You're probably talking about a sample size of 60 or so with a margin of error of roughly +/- 10%.

Early voting numbers in any poll should be taken with a grain of salt until there's enough of voters.

A Colorado Early Vote number where 63% of the 2010 vote has already voted would be much more reliable and statistically significant than an Alaska poll where there's as many as 9 out of 10 folks haven't voted yet.
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