AR-The Arkansas Poll: Hillary leads generic R by 9 points

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

It would be a feat if any Democrat reached Kerry's % in 2016. I wouldn't be shocked at this point if Hillary didn't break 40%.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

VA & NC are solid R but AR is competitive?

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

It will be extremely close, but I just can't see her winning Arkansas.

Now, there is a lot of support in Arkansas for the right (white) type of Democrat.

I completely disagree. If Blanche and Pryor can't pull 40% in their respective races, no way is Hillary making it close. I'd say even in the event of a disastrous GOP candidate and a poor campaign, her ceiling would be around 46%.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Blanche and Pryor were both running in toxic Democratic environments. Hillary will be running in a presidential year with higher turnout in [probably] a more neutral political atmosphere. While one cannot deny that Arkansas has swung incredibly rightward, I don't think it's unreasonable to suggest that she will certainly try to make Arkansas competitive; if nothing else, shave off some of the McCain/Romney margin and keep the Republican in single digits; however, if it's a Cruz/Carson/Paul type, she could very well win the state.

Nonsense. All of those candidates are well suited for AR.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Blanche and Pryor were both running in toxic Democratic environments. Hillary will be running in a presidential year with higher turnout in [probably] a more neutral political atmosphere. While one cannot deny that Arkansas has swung incredibly rightward, I don't think it's unreasonable to suggest that she will certainly try to make Arkansas competitive; if nothing else, shave off some of the McCain/Romney margin and keep the Republican in single digits; however, if it's a Cruz/Carson/Paul type, she could very well win the state.

Nonsense. All of those candidates are well suited for AR.

Yes, Christie is the candidate that could blow Arkansas for the Republicans.

Exactly. Polling so far indicates Christie is perceived poorly in the South. If Hillary really drives home a populist message, she can snatch a narrow win in the state.

Nonsense. Her ceiling is 43-46% against anyone.