CO-SUSA: Gardner +2

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Well, it's probably a good idea to write off Quinnipiac's results now that we have two mainstream reliable pollsters in SUSA and PPP showing something different.

Q had a big lead because they are using an R+5 electorate. And if you look at ballot returns so far that may be a pretty good guess.

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Again, like PPP and unlike Rass and Quinnipiac, SUSA has historically been good in CO (though slightly R leaning). This race is a pure toss up.

Again, this is a PPP/LCV (D) poll, not a PPP non-partisan poll. The true release should come over the weekend.

I wonder if they'll do one.

I honestly don't care much for Colorado polls this late in the game. Mail-in voting changes everything. Almost 60% of the electorate has already voted. That isn't a sample of 500 likely voters. It is 60% of actual voters. Those numbers are much more meaningful than these ostensible exit polls.

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57% say they've already voted, and that number sounds about right based on the ballot count that we're getting.  Of those 57%, Gardner leads 48-45.  The SUSA sample size of this "already voted" contingent is now taking on statistical relevance. I'd say a 3% lead for Gardner of those already voted matches somewhat with the GOP lead of 9% over Dems in returned ballots.

But the poll sample is only R+3. I tend to think that an actual electorate of R+9 would give us the Quinnipiac result of Gardner +7 and Beauprez +5. A 2010 electorate of R+6 would be Gardner +3 and Beauprez tied. And a 2012 electorate of R+2   would have Gardner tied and Hick up a handful. I think we'll end up pretty close to 2010.