CO-PPP: TIED RACE

[Sbane]

Party ID and party registration are different things.

Seriously. Republicans are making the same mistake they did going into 2012.

[Sbane]

Party ID and party registration are different things.

I'd generally agree with you, but not with 60% of the likely vote already in. This is almost like a half-exit poll at this point in time.

I find it hard to believe that partisans are going to lie to pollsters about their party affiliation after going out of their way to cast a ballot to the extent stated in this poll.

You basically would have me suspend belief here to say that 8-9 percentage points of Rs self-identify as Democrats for this sample to work.

If we were modeling against historic turnout, that would be one thing. But these are hard numbers for this particular voting cycle. To be a few points off on an exit poll is one thing. To be off by nearly 10 is not.

Keep in mind that at 60%, the EV numbers begin to become somewhat statistically significant in a larger poll subsample of 600 on their own merits.

By another measure, Democrats would have to push a sample of R+2 the rest of the way to get it within the R+6 they had for the Buck race. We'll see tomorrow, but these EV numbers have not budged much off of R+9 this week.

Were you not following politics in 2012?

[Sbane]

Party ID and party registration are different things.

Seriously. Republicans are making the same mistake they did going into 2012.

This surprises you?

When did I say it surprised me?

[Sbane]

Party ID and party registration are different things.

Seriously. Republicans are making the same mistake they did going into 2012.

Same mistake? Seriously?

This is not 2012. No one is trying to reskew a poll. I am just pointing out how these self-identified numbers are way off of the reality of what the Colorado electorate looks like right now.

Unlike 2012, we have statistically significant hard data in this race to back up those numbers.

The early voting samples simply do not compute with this poll's findings.

With likely 60% of the electorate all ready voting the numbers suggest an R+10 electorate. (Actually R+9.2, but R+10 due to rounding). It's remained in that range all week.

My point is that unless there is a serious Democrat wave over these last few days, this PPP/LCV (D) poll is an outlier. Democrats are not coming out to their 2010 early vote numbers in Colorado of R+6 right now. The enthusiasm is on the Republican side.

The red hats can gleefully look at this advocacy poll as evidence of a chance for Udall. However, your enthusiasm will wane once the real PPP poll comes out this weekend showing a Gardner lead.

All you are doing is unskewing this poll like Republicans did in 2012. Party registration and party ID are two different things and you would do well to learn that.

[Sbane]

And before you respond, go check out the party ID from the 2010 exit polls in Colorado. If anything, this poll needs to be unskewed in favor of the Democrats!

[Sbane]

Again, the hard data you cite is party registration. That has nothing to do with the whims and fancies of people at any given time, which is otherwise known as party ID. A person who is registered as a Republican my feel like a Republican one day and an independent the next. Someone registered independent may want to associate with the democrats one year, but not the next. Party ID is fairly fluid whereas registration is not. In 2010, a Republican wave year, Colorado voters said their party Id was 33-28 in favor of the Democrats. At the same time, I don't believe Democrats have ever had an advantage in party registration in Colorado in recent years.

I get your point about this being an advocacy poll and lo and behold PPP will be conducting another CO poll this weekend. You only diminish your greater point by conflating party registration and party ID.

[Sbane]

Again, the hard data you cite is party registration. That has nothing to do with the whims and fancies of people at any given time, which is otherwise known as party ID. A person who is registered as a Republican my feel like a Republican one day and an independent the next. Someone registered independent may want to associate with the democrats one year, but not the next. Party ID is fairly fluid whereas registration is not. In 2010, a Republican wave year, Colorado voters said their party Id was 33-28 in favor of the Democrats. At the same time, I don't believe Democrats have ever had an advantage in party registration in Colorado in recent years.

I get your point about this being an advocacy poll and lo and behold PPP will be conducting another CO poll this weekend. You only diminish your greater point by conflating party registration and party ID.

So the 2010 Exit Poll included interviews of those that voted early, correct?

Yes, exit polls include those voters or else they wouldn't be valid.

[Sbane]

That is party ID though. It is quite possible people will be more willing to identify with the Republicans this year than with buck on the ballot.

[Sbane]

That is party ID though. It is quite possible people will be more willing to identify with the Republicans this year than with buck on the ballot.

Gee a tie for an advocacy group turns into a R+3 when the non-partisan poll shows up.

Color me not shocked.

This drivel was PPP/LCV (D) all along.

Didn't I already mention that. Why did you have to bring this up?

In any case, you conflating party ID and registration is still idiotic.