CO-PPP: TIED RACE
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 12:19:55 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls
  2014 Senatorial Election Polls
  CO-PPP: TIED RACE
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 [3] 4
Author Topic: CO-PPP: TIED RACE  (Read 8502 times)
eric82oslo
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,501
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.00, S: -5.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #50 on: October 30, 2014, 07:08:28 PM »


RCP is a rightwing publication, they've even admitted that themselves (look at Wikipedia and many other places for proof), and even in their polling database there are polls that are suspiciously not included as well as they're being really random with which polls they prefer to include in their polling average and which not. If they had been more consistent, it would have been easier to take them more seriously. On some races, like Kansas, they've continously tried to paint a more favorable picture for GOP than everyone else have already agreed upon is the situation on the ground there.
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,107
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #51 on: October 30, 2014, 07:11:45 PM »

Udall isn't out of it. Take the R bias of CO polls into account and you have Udall +2. Unless more polls say no, Gardner's chances are now going down?

We need more polls in Colorado!
Logged
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #52 on: October 30, 2014, 07:14:36 PM »

Yup - if the Dem is down by less than 3%, they'll probably win.
Logged
RR1997
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,997
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #53 on: October 30, 2014, 07:20:16 PM »

Remember guys, this was a poll done for LCV.
Logged
Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
Joshua
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,710
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: -5.91

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #54 on: October 30, 2014, 07:20:52 PM »

The entire Colorado senate race has devolved into Republicans going "muh not Ken Buck muh" and Democrats screeching "MUH +3 R = DEM WIN MUH!!"

Can't handle this anymore, I'll check back on this race on election day...
Logged
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #55 on: October 30, 2014, 07:33:55 PM »

The entire Colorado senate race has devolved into Republicans going "muh not Ken Buck muh" and Democrats screeching "MUH +3 R = DEM WIN MUH!!"

Can't handle this anymore, I'll check back on this race on election day...

Take a breather. I don't appreciate being called a screecher.
Logged
Mr. Reactionary
blackraisin
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,784
United States


Political Matrix
E: 5.45, S: -3.35

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #56 on: October 30, 2014, 10:03:44 PM »

The entire Colorado senate race has devolved into Republicans going "muh not Ken Buck muh" and Democrats screeching "MUH +3 R = DEM WIN MUH!!"

Can't handle this anymore, I'll check back on this race on election day...

lolz ... guilty.
Logged
Eraserhead
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,405
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #57 on: October 30, 2014, 10:31:07 PM »


RCP is a rightwing publication, they've even admitted that themselves (look at Wikipedia and many other places for proof), and even in their polling database there are polls that are suspiciously not included as well as they're being really random with which polls they prefer to include in their polling average and which not. If they had been more consistent, it would have been easier to take them more seriously. On some races, like Kansas, they've continously tried to paint a more favorable picture for GOP than everyone else have already agreed upon is the situation on the ground there.

Yeah, I actually talked to the one Democrat who works (or worked) for them a couple of years back. Poor guy.
Logged
Vosem
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,622
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #58 on: October 30, 2014, 10:33:30 PM »

The issue isn't that this was done for LCV, it's that LCV only chooses to release polls that are more favorable for Democrats. For all we know, they've had PPP poll CO a bunch of times and then just released the most favorable result (in fact, this is likely). Does this show Udall can still win? Of course. But is Gardner still favored? Of course.
Logged
Recalcuate
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 444


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #59 on: October 30, 2014, 10:43:48 PM »

The issue isn't that this was done for LCV, it's that LCV only chooses to release polls that are more favorable for Democrats. For all we know, they've had PPP poll CO a bunch of times and then just released the most favorable result (in fact, this is likely). Does this show Udall can still win? Of course. But is Gardner still favored? Of course.

The issue isn't that this was done for LCV, it's that LCV only chooses to release polls that are more favorable for Democrats. For all we know, they've had PPP poll CO a bunch of times and then just released the most favorable result (in fact, this is likely). Does this show Udall can still win? Of course. But is Gardner still favored? Of course.

Or they just released a few shock polls in NC and CO to increase their profile at a time when they can get some free advertising to line their coffers.

You never know the motivations used by an interest group in releasing what they release.  For some reason, LCV left out the third-party candidates, while PPP has included them in other Colorado polls, for example.

You can't treat this poll as anything other than PPP (D) due to the advocacy group they conducted the poll for.

The true PPP poll will be out sometime this weekend.
Logged
Recalcuate
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 444


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #60 on: October 31, 2014, 12:48:31 AM »
« Edited: October 31, 2014, 12:50:03 AM by Recalcuate »

Remember guys, this was a poll done for LCV.

The PPP/LCV (D) poll had a 39 R, 38 D and 25 I/O turnout breakdown.

The Early Vote has 60% of the 2010 total vote tally in (1 million votes). The current breakdown is 41.6 R, 32.4D, 26 I/O.

I know PPP isn't likely pushing for Party ID. However, the early vote numbers are hard numbers. They are not even in the same ballpark as PPP/LCV (D).

In order to match the 39/38/25, the rest of the vote would have to break down as follows:

Same turnout as 2010 (1.8 million), you'd need a D+10 edge.
If you upped the turnout to 2.0 million, you'd need a D+8 edge.
If you upped the turnout to 2.3 million, you'd need a D+6 edge.
If you matched the Obama turnout of 2.6 million from 2012, D+4.5 edge.

Possible? Sure. But those are some haughty numbers to reach.
Logged
Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,876


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #61 on: October 31, 2014, 01:03:49 AM »

Party ID and party registration are different things.
Logged
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #62 on: October 31, 2014, 01:06:11 AM »

Party ID and party registration are different things.

Why do people never learn this ... need us NOT going into 2012 re-dux?
Logged
Recalcuate
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 444


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #63 on: October 31, 2014, 02:12:37 AM »

Party ID and party registration are different things.

I'd generally agree with you, but not with 60% of the likely vote already in. This is almost like a half-exit poll at this point in time.

I find it hard to believe that partisans are going to lie to pollsters about their party affiliation after going out of their way to cast a ballot to the extent stated in this poll.

You basically would have me suspend belief here to say that 8-9 percentage points of Rs self-identify as Democrats for this sample to work.

If we were modeling against historic turnout, that would be one thing. But these are hard numbers for this particular voting cycle. To be a few points off on an exit poll is one thing. To be off by nearly 10 is not.

Keep in mind that at 60%, the EV numbers begin to become somewhat statistically significant in a larger poll subsample of 600 on their own merits.

By another measure, Democrats would have to push a sample of R+2 the rest of the way to get it within the R+6 they had for the Buck race. We'll see tomorrow, but these EV numbers have not budged much off of R+9 this week.
Logged
Fuzzybigfoot
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,211
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #64 on: October 31, 2014, 02:25:01 AM »

Does this poll include people who have already voted? 
Logged
Sbane
sbane
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,303


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #65 on: October 31, 2014, 07:47:31 AM »

Party ID and party registration are different things.

Seriously. Republicans are making the same mistake they did going into 2012.
Logged
Sbane
sbane
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,303


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #66 on: October 31, 2014, 07:48:40 AM »

Party ID and party registration are different things.

I'd generally agree with you, but not with 60% of the likely vote already in. This is almost like a half-exit poll at this point in time.

I find it hard to believe that partisans are going to lie to pollsters about their party affiliation after going out of their way to cast a ballot to the extent stated in this poll.

You basically would have me suspend belief here to say that 8-9 percentage points of Rs self-identify as Democrats for this sample to work.

If we were modeling against historic turnout, that would be one thing. But these are hard numbers for this particular voting cycle. To be a few points off on an exit poll is one thing. To be off by nearly 10 is not.

Keep in mind that at 60%, the EV numbers begin to become somewhat statistically significant in a larger poll subsample of 600 on their own merits.

By another measure, Democrats would have to push a sample of R+2 the rest of the way to get it within the R+6 they had for the Buck race. We'll see tomorrow, but these EV numbers have not budged much off of R+9 this week.

Were you not following politics in 2012?
Logged
They put it to a vote and they just kept lying
20RP12
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 38,235
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.29, S: -7.13

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #67 on: October 31, 2014, 07:57:44 AM »

Man, this thread is golden. One side is gonna use this thread as ammunition against the other once the dust clears. Can't wait for election night.
Logged
Franzl
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,254
Germany


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #68 on: October 31, 2014, 08:21:59 AM »

Party ID and party registration are different things.

Seriously. Republicans are making the same mistake they did going into 2012.

This surprises you?
Logged
Sbane
sbane
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,303


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #69 on: October 31, 2014, 08:24:15 AM »

Party ID and party registration are different things.

Seriously. Republicans are making the same mistake they did going into 2012.

This surprises you?

When did I say it surprised me? Tongue
Logged
5280
MagneticFree
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,404
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.97, S: -0.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #70 on: October 31, 2014, 09:44:08 AM »

At this point in the race, the only way for Udall to win is more people vote the last minute on November 4th before 7pm, or some sort of fraud to pull him over the edge. The GOP isn't dumb enough to repeat the same mistake like in 2010.
Logged
Recalcuate
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 444


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #71 on: October 31, 2014, 09:44:24 AM »

Party ID and party registration are different things.

Seriously. Republicans are making the same mistake they did going into 2012.

Same mistake? Seriously?

This is not 2012. No one is trying to reskew a poll. I am just pointing out how these self-identified numbers are way off of the reality of what the Colorado electorate looks like right now.

Unlike 2012, we have statistically significant hard data in this race to back up those numbers.

The early voting samples simply do not compute with this poll's findings.

With likely 60% of the electorate all ready voting the numbers suggest an R+10 electorate. (Actually R+9.2, but R+10 due to rounding). It's remained in that range all week.

My point is that unless there is a serious Democrat wave over these last few days, this PPP/LCV (D) poll is an outlier. Democrats are not coming out to their 2010 early vote numbers in Colorado of R+6 right now. The enthusiasm is on the Republican side.

The red hats can gleefully look at this advocacy poll as evidence of a chance for Udall. However, your enthusiasm will wane once the real PPP poll comes out this weekend showing a Gardner lead.
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #72 on: October 31, 2014, 09:53:05 AM »

Hopefully actual PPP polls this again to see whether LCV PPP is a shill firm or not. LCV PPP has had some wackier results than normal but looks generally credible, except for this result (which has gone against what most have thought for this race).
Logged
backtored
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 498
Vatican City State


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #73 on: October 31, 2014, 09:58:13 AM »

Gardner will win.
Logged
5280
MagneticFree
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,404
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.97, S: -0.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #74 on: October 31, 2014, 10:02:37 AM »

Logged
Pages: 1 2 [3] 4  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.07 seconds with 14 queries.