Zambia presidential by-election - January 20, 2015

[Simfan34]

I had a dream last night where I read on the BBC that Scott had resigned over some minor kerfluffle, but had been appointed VP by the new President, who in turned resigned, making him President again.

Not really relevant, I know, but just saying.

[politicus]

PF in North Western Province has endorsed Edgar Lungu for President, the first provincial chapter to officially take sides.

[politicus]

Hakainde Hichilema has issued a press release with his campaign themes.

He is running on:

- Strengthening the economy to allow for job creation, stable prices and wealth redistribution.
- Prudent economic management.
- Stressing the need for a strong and stable economy to support the middle class, which are "the key to economic growth".
- Free appropriate and good quality education (abolishing tuition fees and focus on vocational training).
- Quality healthcare.
- Infrastructure development at an accelerated pace ("where a good road goes, development goes")
- Increasing revenue collection capacity to fund infrastructure as opposed to borrowing "expensive money." (PF has basically financed all their big road projects by borrowing)
- Partnership with the private sector (Private Public Partnerships) to reduce pressure on the public budget.
- Implementing a people driven constitution (with a presidential running mate).
("It is simply mind boggling that we must hold three Presidential elections within a space of six years. It is time we stopped playing games with the people's aspirations and give them what they want. As UPND, we will not waste time in delivering a new constitution.")

[politicus]

PF will hold an extra-ordinary Central Committee meeting tomorrow at 9AM to choose a new party President.

PF members are divided on how to select the party’s Presidential candidate with some favouring a general conference in line with the party constitution, while others want the Central Committee to vary the constitution and select the candidate, but no matter what the person who becomes party President will have a huge advantage.

[politicus]

A consultative meeting of PF MPs and some central Committee Members has petitioned the Central Committee to adopt Edgar Lungu as PF presidential candidate.
The consultative meeting was chaired by national chairperson Inonge Wina.
Guy Scott had vetoed a regular CC meeting and did not attend this meeting, which was unofficial.
A properly constituted Central Committee meeting will have to be convened to consider the recommendation.
The meeting was held at the government complex where Lungu's supporters later broke into celebrations.

Meanwhile PF in Western Province has endorsed Sata's nephew Miles Sampa.

According to observers Lungu needs to get elected by the CC, since he has no money for a national campaign and is less popular then GBM, who is seen as the favourite if this goes to a general congress.

[politicus]

Guy Scott has dismissed the petition to the Central Committee to adopt Edgar Lungu as the PF sole candidate for the presidential by-election and party president.

Scott has issued instructions to commence preparations for a General Congress on November 29 at Mulungushi Rock of Authority in Kabwe (the place where Kaunda started the struggle for independence).

Scott said the PF candidate must be selected through a democratic process that will allow a large number of members to scrutinise candidates and added that "a popularly elected candidate through the national congress will enjoy the support of majority members and unite the party."

EDIT: Lungu's supporters don't recognize the legitimacy of this as there was the necessary quorum of 50%+ present in the CC. Hundreds of proters tried to storm the Cabinet building after Scott's statement was made public, but was blocked by riot police.

Apart from Given Lubinda there weren't many heavy weights among the signatories, but they did include the chairperson, deputy chairperson and the head of the Women's League. 47 CC menbers (of 63 present) signed the petition.

[politicus]

The pro-Lungu MPs now threaten to block the budget if Lungu isn't accepted as PF presidential candidate.

https://www.zambianwatchdog.com/pro-edgar-lungu-mps-threaten-to-block-2015-budget/

[politicus]

All MMD MPs except two have endorsed Rupiah Banda as MMD candidate.

PF has set 5PM on November 18 as deadline for candidate applications.

http://www.times.co.zm/?p=42777

[politicus]

MMD decided after a marathon National Executive Meeting last night to nominate Nevers Mumba as their presidential candidate (against the wishes of the wast majority of their MPs). Officially the decision was unanimous, but that is likely after a lot of hand twisting. Anyway, the Preacher Man is in.

http://www.lusakatimes.com/2014/11/17/mmd-adopts-nevers-mumba-upcoming-presidential-election/

EDIT: MMD has now denounced this as a hoax,

Nevers Mumba blocked a vote on the issue by the NEC, so it is still unresolved.

[politicus]

Peter Sinkamba from the Green Party of Zambia is also in. He is the President of Zambians for a Better Environment and manager of a large environmental fund. It will be interesting to see how much he gets, especially among the youth, which is their main target group, Green parties are rare in Africa.

http://www.zambiagreens.org/

[politicus]

Rupiah Banda says he will stand as the MMD candidate, since he is backed by 19 out of 23 MPs!

https://www.zambianwatchdog.com/i-am-standing-on-mmd-ticket-rb/

[politicus]

GBM has declared his candidature to become the PF contender for the presidency. He and Miles Sampa are by now the only official candidates for the General Convention, since Lungu is still fighting to avoid a convention.

https://www.zambianwatchdog.com/gbm-officially-launches-pf-presidential-bid/

EDIT: Given Lubinda and former High Commissioner to Nigeria Selemani Pangula Banda have also declared their candidacy. The pressure on Lungu is mounting - it will be risky to stay out of the process.

http://zambiareports.com/2014/11/17/lubinda-joins-pf-presidential-race/

[politicus]

One more small party contender Forum for Democracy and Development (FDD) president Edith Nawakwi is in.

http://www.times.co.zm/?p=42811

[politicus]

Mulenga Sata has now also declared his candidacy. The deadline for declaring is moved to Wednesday.

The Lungu camp is getting desperate. Guy Scott walked out of the PF CC meeting on Monday preventing them from choosing a candidate. A previous vote had 28 for nominating a candidate through the CC and only 7 for calling a General Conference. There is a new CC meeting scheduled for Thursday and senior Lungu supporters are discussing the possibility of expelling Scott from the party.

EDIT: One important factor behind the conflict is that the CC isn't an elected body, but was appointed by Sata, so it doesn't necessarily reflect the members views. A General Conference would add an unpredictable democratic element to a party that was created as a backing group for a charismatic Big Man.

[Famous Mortimer]

Basically, any time anything is reported in Zambia, you can assume that the opposite is about to happen.

[politicus]

Guy Scott has set the date for January 20, the latest Tuesday available.

[politicus]

MMD has suspended Nevers Mumba as party president and appointed Rupiah Banda as its candidate on a NEC meeting this evening.

http://zambiareports.com/2014/11/18/nevers-mumba-suspended-mmd-rb-adopted-candidate/

"38 members of the 55-member NEC attended representing a full quorum and unanimously voted to suspend Dr Mumba from his party presidency and adopt former President Banda."

The NEC decision gives Nevers Mumba ten days to exculpate himself and explain why he should not be expelled as party president.

The idea is that Banda will run for an alliance with several smaller parties such as NAREP, FDD, Alliance for a Better Zambia and Zambians for Empowerment and Development, which will be given portfolios in the government if he wins (incl. VP). Given that it is his second term Banda wont be able to stand in 2016, so he is considered a neutral candidate, that can unite most of the opposition and get a new constitution approved before the 2016 election.

Nevers Mumba had refused to obey a clear majority at the last NEC meeting, claiming he was automatically the MMD candidate as party president.

Among the reasons for sidelining Mumba were that he isn't particularly popular; was planing an alliance with UNDP where MMD should support HH for president and - according to the normally well informed Africa Confidential newsletter - has received large sums from foregin business interests (primarily South African) for doing this + he has kept donations to himself instad of delivering them to the party treasury.

http://zambiareports.com/2014/11/19/foreign-mining-interests-attempt-fix-zambian-elections/

MMDs Youth League is strongly against the selection of Banda. Nevers Mumba will likely challenge the decision in court, but whether this will have any influence is doubtfull, but Mumba may be able to run for his own National Coalition of Citizens party, which is dormant, but still registered.

[politicus]

Edgar Lungu has declared his candidacy and steps down as SG of the PF. So Scott and his side won first half of the power struggle.

Commerce, Trade and Industry Minister Bob "Bashi Nono" Sichinga and Minister of Sport and Youth Chishimba Kambwili have also joined the race for the PF presidency.

[politicus]

Sata's widow Dr. Christine Kaseba is also running, so nine candidates so far... Kaseba, Lungu, Kambwili, Sichinga, Geoffrey Bwalya Mwamba, Miles Sampa, Selemani Pangula Banda, Given Lubinda and Mulenga Sata.

Deputy SG Bridget Attanga has become Acting Secretary General and Michael Sata’s nephew Anthony Kasolo Deputy Secretary Genera.

EDIT: Agriculture Minister Wylbur Simuusa is also running.

[politicus]

Given that basically everybody with any status in PF have now declared their candidacy it's pretty open and many old alliances are probably broken. There is a run-off, so its likely a race among the others to face GBM, who will get most of the tribalist Bemba vote, but the sympathy votes to Kaseba could shake things up..

The only four bigwigs that (so far..) aren't running are Scott, Minister of Finance Alexander Chikwanda (76 and in poor health) and Wynter Kabimba, who may have backed down to give Miles Sampa a better shot, and Foreign Minister Harry Kalaba, who is backing Lungu.

Chikwande paid Lungu's participation fee, so he has already declared his sympathies.
It will be interesting who Scott supports, officially he has to be neutral, but he could possibly divert a lot of resources to his pick. It was his wife, Charlotte Scott, who handed in Kaseba's declaration and the Scott's and Sata's were private friends, so maybe her, but if Scott is as close to The Cartel as rumoured he will back Miles Sampa, who seems to be their man now.

[politicus]

The electoral commission has set the nomination dates to December 17-19, so it will take a while before we know the final field. All candidates must be nominated by a party, but there are plenty of small and/or dormant parties, which are basically just empty shells, so its not a major obstacle.

[Simfan34]

I don't think anyone will get shot, so I'll say this is certainly very fun to watch.

[politicus]

Perennial candidate former Brigadier General and VP Godfrey Miyanda from the Heritage Party has announced he is running as has Christian Democratic Party (CDP) President Apostle Daniel Pule, who promises to govern the nation on Biblical principles and claims that the hand of God is upon him. Hopefully this godly groping wont disturb the Presidential Apostle too much.

Also, Edgar Lungu says the journalists that criticize him for being a drunkard ("Vodka Lungu") are homosexuals:

“Of course I take a bottle or two, but it is not a problem that affects my work. They are busy talking about my drinking, what about those who are homosexuals? Why don’t they talk about themselves? They are all over talking about me yet some of them have peculiarities totally out of order.”

Let the gaybashing begin..

[politicus]

Six days ago two candidates from small parties declared their candidacy: Elias Chipimo from the conservative National Restoration Party (NAREP)  (big fan of the South Korean way of economic development) and former Works and Supply Minister Ludwig Sondashione from one of the many MMD splinter parties Forum for Democratic Alternatives (FDA). Sondashione is a virulent critic of Rupiah Bandas corruption and famous for claiming he has invented a cure for AIDS.
Chipimo is one of the better Zambian politicians.

http://zambiadailynation.com/2014/11/14/opposition-name-presidential-hopefuls/

So Rupiah Banda, HH and six small party candidates have declared so far.

[politicus]

The PF CC has suspended Guy Scott as party member for sixty days. They have also ordered Secretary General Bridget Attanga to surrender issues related to the presidential application process, but Attanga has dismissed their pronouncements saying they have "no merit or effect". since the meeting was illegal because only the Party President can call for a Central Committee meeting according to the party constitution.

http://zambiareports.com/2014/11/21/acting-president-guy-scott-expelled-pf/

https://www.zambianwatchdog.com/lungu-orders-supporters-to-suspend-scott/