Zambia presidential by-election - January 20, 2015

[politicus]

Following a meeting with representatives of UPND and PF the ECZ has suspended announcement of results until all the contradictory and conflicting figures are verified. There are some odd results (like two constituencies having exactly the same results and allegations of 5 000 extra votes being added to Lungu in Chawama constituency in Lusaka.

A press briefing on the situation is scheduled to 2.30 PM local time.

http://www.lusakatimes.com/2015/01/23/upnd-concerns-delay-election-results-release/

[politicus]

With 121 constituencies counted:

Edgar Lungu 701 089 - 48.72%
Hakainde Hichilema 674 185 - 46.85%
Edith Nawakwi 11 770 - 0.82%

So the gap is down to 26 904.

The total number of registrered voters in the 121 constituencies is 4 287 318. There were 1 439 030 valid ballots and 14 451 invalid.

[politicus]

The 10 newly counted constituencies 3 North-Western, 3 Western, 2 Central, 1 Eastern and 1 Northern:

Serenje, Central Province
Edgar Lungu: 3940
Hakainde Hichilema: 839

Mkushi South, Central Province
Edgar Lungu: 2098
Hakainde Hichilema: 1, 806

Petauke, Eastern Province
Edgar Lungu: 10, 346
Hakainde Hichilema: 1, 202

Lupososhi, Northern Province
Edgar Lungu: 7, 603
Hakainde Hichilema: 1, 147

Kabompo West, North-Western Province
Hakainde Hichilema: 6, 307
Edgar Lungu: 520

Zambezi West, North-Western Province
Hakainde Hichilema: 2, 647
Edgar Lungu: 1, 474

Solwezi East, North-Western Province
Hakainde Hichilema: 3, 329
Edgar Lungu: 691

Nalolo, Western Province
Hakainde Hichilema: 5, 069
Edgar Lungu: 1, 536

Kaoma Central, Western Province
Hakainde Hichilema: 6, 704
Edgar Lungu: 1, 317

Mangango, Western Province
Hakainde Hichilema: 3, 792
Edgar Lungu: 1, 137

[politicus]

The remaining 29 are:

Central Province – 3 seats - Chitambo, Muchinga, Kapiri Mposhi, Keembe constituencies. #

Copperbelt- 1 seat – Mpongwe

Eastern Province - 6 – Chama South, Feira, Kapoche, Lumezi, Msanzala, Nyimba

Lusaka – 1 - Rufunsa

Luapula - 1 - Chembe

Northern Province - 6 - Chilubi, Chinsali, Kanchibiya, Isoka East (Mafinga), Malole, Mfuwe

Northwestern – 3 – Chavuma, Mufumbwe, Kabompo East

Southern Province – 1 - Katombola

Western Province -7 – Luena, Lukulu East, Lukulu West, Mulobezi, Senanga, Sikongo, Sinjembela

# there is a discrepancy between the constituencies mentioned and the number of counted constituencies.

There are 11 left in UPND heartland, 15 in PF friendly areas and 3 in Central. It will be difficult for HH to catch up, but much will depend on the margins in Eastern and the distribution in the three remaining in Central.

[politicus]

ECZ has banned publication of results on ZNBC after the national broadcaster has been airing wrong (PF friendly) results.

Next update will be at 9 PM local time.

[Afrolyte]

Thank you for the welcome, Governor Varavour. Which part of Africa?

Charlotte Hebdo: I will reconstruct my other reply later if you still have those questions.

But briefly: yes, HH's election manifesto was pretty consistent ideologically, but it is not necessarily consistent with the past manifestos of the UPND; it's a changing consistency!

Do I think he would have been a better president than most if not all the candidates? Absolutely. Most people I have talked to in Zambia (I am now in the US) agree, including some of the voters for Lungu.

What is haunting HH is simply the persistent perception of "tribalism" of the UPND. These election results have made it even worse. His "base" has voted for him much more than any region has (ethnically) voted for their candidate and, even worse, it is the most unanimous vote anyone has ever got in democratic era Zambia. This has caused very heated discussions on social media about the "tribalism" of the region and unfortunately it will make it harder for HH to win in 2016 (he will stand).

My projection got it wrong on how wide the gap would be because I was only looking at the provinces that would go to EL versus HH (about 7 to 3, as expected, with zero impact from the crossover MPs - which should normally imply a huge landslide), but what no one could see was that the pro-HH region would have a voter turnout that is significantly higher than anywhere else (despite the bad weather conditions) -- that's as unprecedented as the unanimity with which they voted. Again, unfortunately for him, the PF will make sure they emphasize both high voter turn out in the next round, while also reminding voters in other regions about how "united" the Tongas were for their candidate, and they will make up a few motives for that. Unfortunately this means Zambia will take some big steps backwards on the ethnic relations front where it has been quite progressive in the past.

Will a president Lungu be controlled by other people? I believe he will. I can't see that he has the character to be his own man. This means his success or failure will depend on his most influential "handlers" (it will be fine if it is Mr. Chikwanda, not so fine if it is the other people who helped him gain power in the PF aggressively, if not dubiously.) The biggest risk is if he decides to prove that he is his own man because people are calling him a puppet or something; that, is what could make him dangerous.

Finally, 2016.

I was sure before that Lungu would have very a hard time retaining his seat in 2016 (due to inevitable broken promises), but now I am pretty sure he will win again, just because the ethnicity issue has come back after this election more than any time I can remember. HH will have a harder battle convincing the other regions that the unprecedentedly unanimous votes he received in his home ground do not reflect an attitude against other "tribes."

(Which brings me to your question about what my own tribe is! It's not necessarily a rude question, except that in some contexts it could be received as merely an inquiry into my objectivity! But no offence taken.)

[politicus]

Charlotte Hebdo: I will reconstruct my other reply later if you still have those questions.

Yes I do (especially a profile/biography on Lungu) and thanks for the answers you have already given. They basically confirm what I thought.
I got one more question about the campaign actually: This whole business with demonizing HHs alleged free masonry has been described by ZR and ZW as equally damaging as the tribalism accusations. Do you agree with that or is it hyperbolic?

- The final official result has not been released, but you take it for granted that Lungu won. Is that based on the expected numbers from the 29 unpublished constituency results? Some alternative vote tabulation you trust? Or that PF would simply not accept to lose such a close election?

- Muchinga Province is listed on the ECZ website, but not in the results published in the media. Do you think the media simply go by the 2011 borders of Northern and Eastern anyway? Or is it ECZ itself that publishes results according to the 2011 status despite using Muchinga on their website?

- What are you doing in the US? I take it you are an academic of some sorts?

[politicus]

For what it is worth the (pro-Lungu) website Zambia Reports says the final result is:

Edgar Lungu 801 342 - 51%
Hakainde Hichilema 762 861 - 49%

It would be a credible result based on what remains, but no way of knowing if it is correct.

[politicus]

With 141 constituencies counted Lungu's lead has increased slightly to almost 28 000 and it looks impossible for HH to catch up:

Edgar Lungu 780,691 - 48.3%

Hakainde Hichilema 752,850 - 46.7%

Nevers Mumba 13,971 - 0.87%

Edith Nawakwi 13,597 - 0.84%

Turnout is currently standing at 32.45%

ECZ Chairperson Irene Mambilima says the Commission will not rush into declaring a winner, but wait to exhaust the verification process of the remaining nine constituencies because the difference between the two leading contenders of around 28 000 is less than the 196,691 registered voters in them.

The remaining nine constituencies are:


Eastern Province - 2 – Chama South, Chama North

Northern Province - 3 - Kanchibiya, Isoka East (Mafinga), Mfuwe

Northwestern – 1 – Mufumbwe

Western Province -3 – Luena, Lukulu West, Sikongo

http://www.lusakatimes.com/2015/01/23/edgar-lungu-maintains-lead-presidential-race-nears-end/


So 4 in UPND heartland, 2 in Eastern and 3 in Northern. Looks like a tie or even a small Lungu gain.

[politicus]

ECZ will announce the winner at noon, but the two big parties already have the preliminary results and they by all accounts show that Lungu won.

Hakainde Hichilema will hold a press conference at 11 AM where he he expected to denounce the elections results and possibly reject the final outcome due to rigging.

[politicus]

As expected Hichilema and UPND claim the counting process was rigged:

http://www.lusakatimes.com/2015/01/24/edgar-lungu-stolen-election-hh/

But UPND also urge their supporters to keep the peace:

"Ultimately, this election has been a sham and does not reflect the will of the majority of Zambians. If Edgar Lungu is sworn in as President he will certainly be an illegitimate president going by what we have discovered at the ECZ."

"We in the UPND, together with our partners and ordinary citizens, will be watching closely and we will be ready to win another election in 20 months time under a new constitution."

"Despite the fact that the election was stolen from us, I urge all our party members and supporters across our country to remain calm and peaceful for the good of Zambia."

[politicus]

ECZ has now counted 146 constituencies and the gap is a mere 13 000 votes:

Edgar Lungu (PF)                789,848 - 47.96%
Hakainde Hichilema (UPND) 776,832 - 47.17%

Never Mumba (MMD) 14,104 - 0.86%
Edith Nawakwi (FDD) 13,872 - 0.84%
Tilyenji Kaunda (UNIP) 9,212 - 0.57%
Eric Chanda (4R) 7,753 - 0.47%
Elias Chipimo (NAREP) 5,892 - 0.36%
Godfrey Miyanda (Heritage) 5,650 - 0.34%
Daniel Pule (CDP) 3,132 - 0.19%
Ludwig Sondashi (FDA) 1,992 - 0.19%
Peter Sinkamba (Green) 1,382 - 0.08%.

The results added from five constituencies are:

1. Sikongo (Western) HH 4,193 73.79% EL 1,207 21.24% Total 5,682 votes caste 79 rejected 29% turnout.

2. Luena (Western) HH 6,710 EL 684 8.87% Total 7,712 votes cast 94 rejected 36.83% turnout.

3. Lukulu West (Western) HH 3,021 75.79% EL 830 20.82% votes 3,986 cast 22 rejected 33.55% turnout.

4.Mufumbwe ( North-Western) HH 9,530 86.85% EL 1,083 9.87% Total 10,973 votes cast 95 rejected 40.62 % turnout

5.Kanchibiya (Northern) EL 5,353 84.19% HH 528 8.30% 6,358 votes cast 65 rejected 22.61% voter turnout

So 4 out of 5 from UPND areas.

[politicus]

The remaining four constituencies are:


Muchinga Province - 4 – Chama South, Chama North, Mafinga (Isoka East), Mfuwe

All certain Lungu wins.

[politicus]

On the issue of tribalism HHs home province and Tonga heartland Southern Province had a turnout of 49%, which is impressive given the weather conditions, but not extreme:

Hakainde Hichilema 272,182 (90.03%)
Edgar Lungu 20,937
Tilyenji Kaunda 1,396
Nevers Mumba 1,210
Eric Chanda    1,161
Elias Chipimo 897
Godfrey Miyanda  657
Edith Nawakwi 642   
Ludwig Sondashi 190    
Daniel Pule    137
Peter Sinkamba 137

Total Registered Voters    617,461
Total Votes Cast    302,341
Total Votes Rejected    2,795
Voter Turnout    49%

34.89% of Hichilema's votes came from Southern Province.


Lungu's home province Eastern had a 22.7% turnout (the lowest of all provinces) and a respectable shoving for HH:

Edgar Lungu 88,408
Hakainde Hichilema 33,882
Edith Nawakwi 2,948
Tilyenji Kaunda 2,159
Eric Chanda    1,956
Godfrey Miyanda 1,308
Nevers Mumba 1,245

All others below 1,000
   
Total Registered Voters 600,098
Total Votes Cast    136,106
Total Votes Rejected  1,720
Voter Turnout    22.7%


Luapula in the Bemba heartland had 82.63% for Lungu:
   
Edgar Lungu 81,289   
Hakainde Hichilema   10,493
Nevers Mumba    1,983    
Edith Nawakwi 1,117

All others below 1,000

Total Registered Voters 408,790
Total Votes Cast    98,382
Total Votes Rejected  1,097
Voter Turnout    24.1%

[politicus]

ECZ has declared Lungu the winner. He will be inaugurated tomorrow. The last four Muchinga constituencies increased his margin as expected, but it was still just 27, 757.


Edgar Lungu 807,925 - 48.33%
Hakainde Hichilema 780,168 - 46.67%

Edith Nawakwi 15,321 - 0.92%
Nevers Mumba 14,609 - 0.87%
 
Tilyenji Kaunda  9,737 - 0.58%
Eric Chanda 8,054 - 0.48%
Elias Chipimo 6,002 - 0.36%
Godfrey Miyanda 5,757 - 0.34%
Daniel Pule 3,293 - 0.20%
Ludwig Sondashi 2,073 - 0.12%
Peter Sinkamba 1,410 - 0.08%
Blanks/invalids 17,313 - 1.04%

Total registered voters 5,166,084
Total votes cast were 1,671,662.
Turnout 32.36%

[politicus]

Hichilema won four provinces: Central, Northwestern, Western and Southern.

Lungu won six provinces: Luapula, Northern, Muchinga, Eastern, Copperbelt and Lusaka.

So a very clear Northeast-Southwest division with Lungu getting the mixed areas in Copperbelt and Lusaka. His margin was higher in the north than in Eastern, so the Bembas remained loyal to PF.

[politicus]

Central Province was won by Hichilema, but with the eastern districts going to Lungu.

http://www.elections.org.zm/results/2015_presidential_election/province/central



(there are 10 districts now, but it is the part in the middle that has been further divided)

Serenje in the eastern end went 5,813 to 1,326 for Lungu, while Mumbwa in the western end went 15,380 to 1,934 for Hichilema.

Lungu also won Kabwe town 19,945 to 7,639. Of the old districts Hichilema won Kapiri Mphoshi and Chibombo, while Lungu won Mkushi, so despite four new subdivisions the picture is clear.

[politicus]

Turnout:

Southern 49.0%

Northwestern 38.2%
Lusaka 36.8%
Copperbelt 33.2%

Western 29.8%
Northern 28.3%
Central 26.5%
Muchinga 26.5%
Luapula 24.1%
Eastern 22.7%

So lowest in Lungu's home province and generally quite low in low-urbanization PF strongholds.
The weather played a big part, but it also looks like rural voters in the north and east, who were dissatisfied with PF, stayed home rather than vote for HH. The anticipated backlash among farmers for PF seems mostly to have materialized as low turnout.

Western had some of the worst weather, so the turnout difference to Northwestern may simply be that, but it was an area where PF had a good election in 2011 (before Sata defaulted on autonomy to Barotseland) and some dissatisfied former PF voters likely wouldn't vote for HH because of (perceived) tribalism and stayed home.

[politicus]

PF cadres celebrating - a wild night in Lusaka.





Lungu will be inaugurated  as Zambia's sixth President in a ceremony at the National Heroes Stadium in Lusaka at 10 AM with public access followed by a luncheon at State House at 2 PM.



Hopefully he will be wearing a different suit than this one..

He did:

[politicus]

The independent Christian Churches Monitoring Group declares the official result credible and in accordance with their alternative vote tabulation

http://www.lusakatimes.com/2015/01/25/christian-churches-monitoring-group-says-results-ecz-credible-match-pvt/

[politicus]

Lungu has dissolved the cabinet. During inauguration at noon Lungu appointed Ngosa Simbyakula as new Minister of Justice indicating he would keep the cabinet for a while, but in the afternoon he dissolved the cabinet (including Simbyakula) anyway. So he wants a clean slate. Interesting who gets reappointed and how many of Rupiah Banda's team gets in.

[politicus]

Lungu taking the oath from Chief Justice Lombe Chibesakunda


Scott handing over the symbolic instruments of power

[Afrolyte]

Hi Charlotte, just seen your questions. Some of them now redundant, of course.

1. No, the free mason thing -- he was actually described as a "Satanist" by some guy who claimed to have been in secret Satanic rituals with HH -- was nowhere near as damaging as the tribalism perception. Most people would understand that as just campaign politics and the people who were convinced by this were not going to vote for him anyway.

Some people were arguing that this was damaging simply because Zambia is a very Christian nation (demographically and constitutionally). However, the fact those who specifically courted the Christian vote did not get too many votes (Reverend Nevers Mumba, Reverend Dan Pule, Elias Chipimo Jr, General Godfrey Miyanda) got very few votes. Not sure how long it will take them to realize there is no "Christian Vote" in Zambian politics; people simply tend to separate the two in their minds - especially since almost every Zambian is, by default, assumed to be a Christian of sorts.

2. On Muchinga province. The reason there was no separation between Muchinga and Northern Province was because the official voters' register they were using was pre-Muchinga province creation (2011). It was ECZ itself releasing them as "Northern province" to the media.

3. How I knew Lungu was winning at that point? I knew where the unannounced constituencies were located; there were just not enough HH areas to tilt the end vote even assuming similar voter turnout advantage.

[Afrolyte]

Should read:

However, the fact that those who specifically courted the Christian vote did not get too many votes (Reverend Nevers Mumba, Reverend Dan Pule, Elias Chipimo Jr, General Godfrey Miyanda) probably shows that candidates' faith (or lack of it) was not a major issue.

[politicus]

Lungu has appointed PF chairperson Inonge Wina (73) as the first female Vice President in Zambia. She is the widow of former MMD chairman Arthur Wina and was Minister of Gender and Child Development before becoming chairperson of the party. She was one of Lungus most important and loyal backers in the power struggle with the Cartel/Scott wing and declared him as winner of the highly questionable GC at Mulungushi Rock that was boycotted by the other candidates and invaded by Lungus cadres. This proved to be the crucial move. Hails from Western Province (Barotseland) which also carries an important symbolic value. Studied a couple of years in the US as so many anglophone Africans and got a diploma in social works from Santa Monica City College.

http://www.pf.org.zm/index.php/leadership/inonge-mutukwa-wina