Hick won't tie with independents and get crushed
Have you seen turnout so far?
Hick either needs a lot of crossover votes or a significant chunk of unaffiliated voters to win with the kind of turnout that we’re seeing. A tie among indies probably won't get it done. I suspect that the shift to Republicans in the latest polling is simply pollsters adjusting their turnout models based on the strong GOP turnout on the ground.
My take: Hick isn’t down by five and probably won’t lose by five, but I can believe that he’s down.
