WI: Final Marquette poll out today!

[TJ in Oregon]

There is always some statistical noise in polls. When a new poll comes out with a huge swing from the last poll and nothing happened between the two that would cause a dramatic shift in public opinion, I tend to be skeptical of the new result, the previous result, or both. If it seems too good to be true it probably is.

On the whole, the bulk of the recent Wisconsin polling has shown Walker ahead. Polls have been wrong before and they can again, but I do think Walker will end up winning because the bulk of the polling has shown him ahead. I do not think he will win by 7 but again stranger things have happened.

[TJ in Oregon]

No undecided voter gives a **** about these polls. The only ones who do are partisans who decided long ago like us.

I'm not saying it will convince undecideds. But it's going to get a lot of positive coverage for Walker. "Walker way ahead! Walker on track for re-election!" etc. which may depress Dem turnout a bit/increase Rep turnout a bit. It's not going to be a huge difference of course, but in a race that will be decided by a knife's edge it could matter.

Definitely. That's why campaigns will occasionally leak internal polling that shows them in a dead heat or up by 1 when public polling is showing them falling behind: the supporters on the ground  demand a reason to believe they have a chance in order to keep them willing to go out and volunteer and vote.