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  HI-01: Civil Beat: Tied (search mode)
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Author Topic: HI-01: Civil Beat: Tied  (Read 1290 times)
Bacon King
Atlas Politician
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Posts: 18,421
United States


« on: October 30, 2014, 03:20:03 am »

No clue why everyone thought this was safe D for most of the election cycle.

D+18 is a damn good reason.  This is really surprising.

Is it really though? Djou held Hanabusa to a 9 point win in 2012 even as Obama was romping with 70%+ in the state. Now there's no incumbent, it's lower turnout, more Republican friendly year, no Obama coattails, and Djou is running again. That seems like a rather obvious recipe for a very close race to me, PVI notwithstanding.

If it's D+18, a non-redistricted non-incumbent Republican should have about a 0.00% chance of winning it. The most partisan D district held by a Republican right now is CA-31, which is D+5.

In 2008, a non-redistricted non-incumbent Republican won in a D+25 district, and that wasn't even a midterm. PVI doesn't determine everything
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