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  HI-01: Civil Beat: Tied (search mode)
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Author Topic: HI-01: Civil Beat: Tied  (Read 1294 times)
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,958
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

P

« on: October 28, 2014, 01:47:51 pm »

No clue why everyone thought this was safe D for most of the election cycle.
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IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,958
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

P

« Reply #1 on: October 29, 2014, 01:04:07 am »

No clue why everyone thought this was safe D for most of the election cycle.

D+18 is a damn good reason.  This is really surprising.

Is it really though? Djou held Hanabusa to a 9 point win in 2012 even as Obama was romping with 70%+ in the state. Now there's no incumbent, it's lower turnout, more Republican friendly year, no Obama coattails, and Djou is running again. That seems like a rather obvious recipe for a very close race to me, PVI notwithstanding.
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IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,958
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

P

« Reply #2 on: October 29, 2014, 02:51:44 am »

No clue why everyone thought this was safe D for most of the election cycle.

D+18 is a damn good reason.  This is really surprising.

Is it really though? Djou held Hanabusa to a 9 point win in 2012 even as Obama was romping with 70%+ in the state. Now there's no incumbent, it's lower turnout, more Republican friendly year, no Obama coattails, and Djou is running again. That seems like a rather obvious recipe for a very close race to me, PVI notwithstanding.

If it's D+18, a non-redistricted non-incumbent Republican should have about a 0.00% chance of winning it. The most partisan D district held by a Republican right now is CA-31, which is D+5.

No Democrats even hold a R+18 or higher seat.

Hard to believe this is a reliable poll.

Uh, did you read my post? Why would you rely just on PVI, when you have ACTUAL election results with the identical Republican running to compare it to?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Hawaii,_2010#Results

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Hawaii,_2012#General_election_results

Margin matters. Djou kept it within single digits in both 2010 and, extraordinarily, 2012. If he could do that in 2012, why in the world would he not be able to in 2014 against a non incumbent, lower turnout election, more Republican friendly environment, and no Obama coattails? This is the third poll in a row to show a close race here. It's not an outlier. "Muh PVI" can't explain everything.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/house/hi/hawaii_1st_district_djou_vs_takai-5230.html
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