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  CO-Sen, Rasmussen: Gardner in the lead
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Author Topic: CO-Sen, Rasmussen: Gardner in the lead  (Read 4519 times)
backtored
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« Reply #25 on: October 27, 2014, 11:51:51 am »

We get it blue avatars, you are tired of hearing about Ken Buck. The point is, we have to see if history will repeat itself and ground game proves to make a difference. Democrats call voters and knock on doors, Republicans don't do much of that, some even think it's stupid.

Republicans have an 11-point lead in mail-in voting with roughly 1/3 of votes counted. 

As it turns out, ground game does make a big difference.

You need to cite where you get the numbers from, if you just state them, no one knows if they are real or not. As someone who has actually volunteered, I know that a lot of Democrats don't get their ballots out until the last week or so, which is why calling and canvassing makes the difference.

http://content.govdelivery.com/accounts/COSOS/bulletins/d87e80

What you are not mentioning:

A week ago, the mail-in ballots were R+16, now they are R+11.

And there's still a week of peak-returning to go.

The final 2010 margin (when Buck lost by 2) was R+6 with mail-in ballots ...

No, they weren't.  The GOP was leading by 15 points with only 80,000 ballots returned, which is virtually meaningless to the overall total.  Now almost 700,000 voters, more than a third of the electorate, has voted, and the GOP still has an 11 percent lead.  So Republicans have lost four points in seven days...to unaffiliated voters, which might be R-leaning this year, anyway.

Besides, more Republicans are turning in ballots then Democrats every single day in Colorado.  But the margins narrow as the vote count gets bigger because that's how statistics work.  
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SPQR
italian-boy
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« Reply #26 on: October 27, 2014, 12:28:03 pm »

Link to come


Gardner 51
Udall 45



Uterus is medical waste as this point.
I thought people would be banned for this kind of posts.
Apparently some users have a perennial free pass around here...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #27 on: October 27, 2014, 12:33:09 pm »

We get it blue avatars, you are tired of hearing about Ken Buck. The point is, we have to see if history will repeat itself and ground game proves to make a difference. Democrats call voters and knock on doors, Republicans don't do much of that, some even think it's stupid.

Republicans have an 11-point lead in mail-in voting with roughly 1/3 of votes counted. 

As it turns out, ground game does make a big difference.

You need to cite where you get the numbers from, if you just state them, no one knows if they are real or not. As someone who has actually volunteered, I know that a lot of Democrats don't get their ballots out until the last week or so, which is why calling and canvassing makes the difference.

http://content.govdelivery.com/accounts/COSOS/bulletins/d87e80

What you are not mentioning:

A week ago, the mail-in ballots were R+16, now they are R+11.

And there's still a week of peak-returning to go.

The final 2010 margin (when Buck lost by 2) was R+6 with mail-in ballots ...

No, they weren't.  The GOP was leading by 15 points with only 80,000 ballots returned, which is virtually meaningless to the overall total.  Now almost 700,000 voters, more than a third of the electorate, has voted, and the GOP still has an 11 percent lead.  So Republicans have lost four points in seven days...to unaffiliated voters, which might be R-leaning this year, anyway.

Besides, more Republicans are turning in ballots then Democrats every single day in Colorado.  But the margins narrow as the vote count gets bigger because that's how statistics work.  

Just checked the new numbers: The spread is now 10.4% (R) as of yesterday. On Friday it was 12.0, which means the Ds are cutting into the R-lead by 0.8% each day now.

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/526780614880788480

The weekend was just 39% R and 35% D anymore. 1 week ago, the Republicans started out with a 47-31 advantage.

That is quite a progress for the Dems.

If the Dems keep chipping away 0.8% each day for the next week, then it will likely end at R+5, which would not be bad.
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marty
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« Reply #28 on: October 27, 2014, 12:36:22 pm »

Jesus christ some on this board will stop at nothing to convince themselves that their guy is going to win.
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Recalcuate
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« Reply #29 on: October 27, 2014, 01:04:18 pm »

We get it blue avatars, you are tired of hearing about Ken Buck. The point is, we have to see if history will repeat itself and ground game proves to make a difference. Democrats call voters and knock on doors, Republicans don't do much of that, some even think it's stupid.

Republicans have an 11-point lead in mail-in voting with roughly 1/3 of votes counted. 

As it turns out, ground game does make a big difference.

You need to cite where you get the numbers from, if you just state them, no one knows if they are real or not. As someone who has actually volunteered, I know that a lot of Democrats don't get their ballots out until the last week or so, which is why calling and canvassing makes the difference.

http://content.govdelivery.com/accounts/COSOS/bulletins/d87e80

What you are not mentioning:

A week ago, the mail-in ballots were R+16, now they are R+11.

And there's still a week of peak-returning to go.

The final 2010 margin (when Buck lost by 2) was R+6 with mail-in ballots ...

No, they weren't.  The GOP was leading by 15 points with only 80,000 ballots returned, which is virtually meaningless to the overall total.  Now almost 700,000 voters, more than a third of the electorate, has voted, and the GOP still has an 11 percent lead.  So Republicans have lost four points in seven days...to unaffiliated voters, which might be R-leaning this year, anyway.

Besides, more Republicans are turning in ballots then Democrats every single day in Colorado.  But the margins narrow as the vote count gets bigger because that's how statistics work.  

Just checked the new numbers: The spread is now 10.4% (R) as of yesterday. On Friday it was 12.0, which means the Ds are cutting into the R-lead by 0.8% each day now.

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/526780614880788480

The weekend was just 39% R and 35% D anymore. 1 week ago, the Republicans started out with a 47-31 advantage.

That is quite a progress for the Dems.

If the Dems keep chipping away 0.8% each day for the next week, then it will likely end at R+5, which would not be bad.

At some point, the D is going to have to come close to overtaking the R ballots received in order to close the gap to R+5 as you propose. It's a lot easier to narrow at +0.8 a day when 25% of the ballots have been returned than when 75% of the mailed-in ballots received.

At some point a R+4 day won't be good enough to move the tally that much.

I agree, the R totals will narrow, historically. However, I'm not quite sure that automatically means that Udall wins if the Dems whittle the R advantage to R+4, R+5, R+6 or R+7.
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backtored
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« Reply #30 on: October 27, 2014, 01:28:41 pm »

2010 was R+6, which this year would probably wind up taking out Udall and quite possibly Hickenlooper, too. For Udall to survive it probably has to be no worse than  r+3. Given current turnout, I don't see that happening unless Democratic GOTV had a much stronger weekend than Republicans. I mean, they only have until Friday to mail ballots back unless they deliver them in-person, and that requires the sort of motivation that Democrats don't appear to possess this year.

It just shows how different Colorado is politically without Barack Obama on the ballot.
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Vosem
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« Reply #31 on: October 27, 2014, 02:40:08 pm »

Jesus christ some on this board will stop at nothing to convince themselves that their guy is going to win.

No kidding.
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #32 on: October 27, 2014, 03:50:51 pm »

New Poll: Colorado Senator by Rasmussen on 2014-10-23

Summary: D: 45%, R: 51%, I: 2%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Sbane
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« Reply #33 on: October 27, 2014, 04:37:05 pm »

2010 was R+6, which this year would probably wind up taking out Udall and quite possibly Hickenlooper, too. For Udall to survive it probably has to be no worse than  r+3. Given current turnout, I don't see that happening unless Democratic GOTV had a much stronger weekend than Republicans. I mean, they only have until Friday to mail ballots back unless they deliver them in-person, and that requires the sort of motivation that Democrats don't appear to possess this year.

It just shows how different Colorado is politically without Barack Obama on the ballot.

What was the number in 2012?
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Miles
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« Reply #34 on: October 27, 2014, 04:46:25 pm »


D+5
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backtored
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« Reply #35 on: October 27, 2014, 05:01:53 pm »


I thought it was R+1 or 2.
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Miles
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« Reply #36 on: October 27, 2014, 05:04:11 pm »


The NYT exit polls had the CO electorate 34D 29R 37I.
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Sbane
sbane
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« Reply #37 on: October 27, 2014, 05:16:24 pm »


It should be based on the data set backtored cited.
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10 minutes into Lysol, Tidepod, and chill..
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #38 on: October 27, 2014, 05:41:18 pm »


and even in 2012, there is data showing turnout at R+6 or something though the exit polls showed D+5. The registration numbers are like R+.5, as they were in 2012. In 2008 and 2010, they were R+.1 or something.
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chrisras
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« Reply #39 on: October 27, 2014, 10:10:04 pm »

Do you guys think Gardner's coattails will pull Bob Beauprez over the finish line?
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backtored
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« Reply #40 on: October 27, 2014, 10:50:59 pm »

Do you guys think Gardner's coattails will pull Bob Beauprez over the finish line?

No. But I think that Republican enthusiasm and GOTV might.
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #41 on: October 28, 2014, 05:12:34 pm »

Jesus christ some on this board will stop at nothing to convince themselves that their guy is going to win.

Just as some will stop at nothing to insist that Democrats will gain a seat in the senate.

In 2012 at this time, independent analysts were consistently saying it was hard to see a republican senate and weren't ruling out a democratic net gain.

This year, those same analysts are expecting a republican senate, and aren't ruling out republican gains of 9 or 10 seats.

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« Reply #42 on: October 28, 2014, 11:57:27 pm »

At this point of the race, Udall should just drop out and forget about it.
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