MD-Gonzales Research: Anthony Brown = the next Martha Coakley ? (user search)
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  MD-Gonzales Research: Anthony Brown = the next Martha Coakley ? (search mode)
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Author Topic: MD-Gonzales Research: Anthony Brown = the next Martha Coakley ?  (Read 8232 times)
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

« on: October 27, 2014, 02:56:59 PM »

This is a Republican firm that under-estimated O'Malley's margin by 7% in 2010.



Plus they had Brown only up 4 a while ago as well. WaPo and Baltimore Sun have Brown up 7-9 points. Trash it.
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IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

« Reply #1 on: October 27, 2014, 03:59:21 PM »

I could be wrong, but the high African American population in Maryland usually makes it very difficult for the GOP win there because that is one of the strongest Democratic demographic, regardless of how weak the candidate is. I can't remember the last time in ANY Maryland race that a Republican broke 53%. 

Yeah, exactly. There's simply no path to victory for the GOP in Maryland anymore. They won by a slim margin in 2002 against an awful Democratic candidate, back when the state was less diverse and less Democratic. In order to win now they'd need Deep South-like margins among whites.
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IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

« Reply #2 on: November 05, 2014, 06:40:13 PM »

Gonzales Research: New gold standard for Maryland polls?

No, they overestimated Brown by 11 points.

Junk poll!
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