CO-Sen, Rasmussen: Gardner in the lead

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The real race in Colorado is for governor. Gardner wins this.

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I also think this poll is a little off.

Let's see if the Dems are narrowing the mail-voting deficit from -12 to ca. -6 over the next week, which would be in line with 2010.

If turnout is the same as 2010, then Republicans will sweep statewide offices.

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The real race in Colorado is for governor. Gardner wins this.

Other way around. Hickenlooper seems to be back to safety now.

No, he's not. He may win, but it won't be by much.

Gardner, by the way, will win by 4 to 8 points. Whether it is the high end or low end will determine the next governor.

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Rasmussen's final poll in 2010: Buck +4

It's gonna be a close one. Let's see what PPP says here.

I was pretty sure that Ken Buck wasn't running for Senate this year.

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Marist poll which shows a 1 pt lead is more accurate, mail in ballots.

Marist is more accurate than: CNN, PPP, Fox, USA Today/Suffolk, Survey USA, and Rasmussen? 

By the way, have you noticed how the whole mail in voting thing has been going in Colorado?

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We get it blue avatars, you are tired of hearing about Ken Buck. The point is, we have to see if history will repeat itself and ground game proves to make a difference. Democrats call voters and knock on doors, Republicans don't do much of that, some even think it's stupid.

Republicans have an 11-point lead in mail-in voting with roughly 1/3 of votes counted. 

As it turns out, ground game does make a big difference.

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We get it blue avatars, you are tired of hearing about Ken Buck. The point is, we have to see if history will repeat itself and ground game proves to make a difference. Democrats call voters and knock on doors, Republicans don't do much of that, some even think it's stupid.

Republicans have an 11-point lead in mail-in voting with roughly 1/3 of votes counted. 

As it turns out, ground game does make a big difference.

You need to cite where you get the numbers from, if you just state them, no one knows if they are real or not. As someone who has actually volunteered, I know that a lot of Democrats don't get their ballots out until the last week or so, which is why calling and canvassing makes the difference.

http://content.govdelivery.com/accounts/COSOS/bulletins/d87e80

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We get it blue avatars, you are tired of hearing about Ken Buck. The point is, we have to see if history will repeat itself and ground game proves to make a difference. Democrats call voters and knock on doors, Republicans don't do much of that, some even think it's stupid.

Republicans have an 11-point lead in mail-in voting with roughly 1/3 of votes counted. 

As it turns out, ground game does make a big difference.

You need to cite where you get the numbers from, if you just state them, no one knows if they are real or not. As someone who has actually volunteered, I know that a lot of Democrats don't get their ballots out until the last week or so, which is why calling and canvassing makes the difference.

http://content.govdelivery.com/accounts/COSOS/bulletins/d87e80

What you are not mentioning:

A week ago, the mail-in ballots were R+16, now they are R+11.

And there's still a week of peak-returning to go.

The final 2010 margin (when Buck lost by 2) was R+6 with mail-in ballots ...

No, they weren't.  The GOP was leading by 15 points with only 80,000 ballots returned, which is virtually meaningless to the overall total.  Now almost 700,000 voters, more than a third of the electorate, has voted, and the GOP still has an 11 percent lead.  So Republicans have lost four points in seven days...to unaffiliated voters, which might be R-leaning this year, anyway.

Besides, more Republicans are turning in ballots then Democrats every single day in Colorado.  But the margins narrow as the vote count gets bigger because that's how statistics work.  

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2010 was R+6, which this year would probably wind up taking out Udall and quite possibly Hickenlooper, too. For Udall to survive it probably has to be no worse than  r+3. Given current turnout, I don't see that happening unless Democratic GOTV had a much stronger weekend than Republicans. I mean, they only have until Friday to mail ballots back unless they deliver them in-person, and that requires the sort of motivation that Democrats don't appear to possess this year.

It just shows how different Colorado is politically without Barack Obama on the ballot.

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What was the number in 2012?

D+5

I thought it was R+1 or 2.

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Do you guys think Gardner's coattails will pull Bob Beauprez over the finish line?

No. But I think that Republican enthusiasm and GOTV might.