CO-Sen, Rasmussen: Gardner in the lead
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Author Topic: CO-Sen, Rasmussen: Gardner in the lead  (Read 5599 times)
krazen1211
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« on: October 27, 2014, 09:21:07 AM »

Link to come


Gardner 51
Udall 45



Uterus is medical waste as this point.
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King
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« Reply #1 on: October 27, 2014, 09:27:28 AM »

woohoo abortion puns
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #2 on: October 27, 2014, 09:45:21 AM »

Rasmussen's final poll in 2010: Buck +4

It's gonna be a close one. Let's see what PPP says here.
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backtored
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« Reply #3 on: October 27, 2014, 09:47:06 AM »

The real race in Colorado is for governor. Gardner wins this.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4 on: October 27, 2014, 09:47:36 AM »

I also think this poll is a little off.

Let's see if the Dems are narrowing the mail-voting deficit from -12 to ca. -6 over the next week, which would be in line with 2010.
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backtored
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« Reply #5 on: October 27, 2014, 09:54:03 AM »

I also think this poll is a little off.

Let's see if the Dems are narrowing the mail-voting deficit from -12 to ca. -6 over the next week, which would be in line with 2010.

If turnout is the same as 2010, then Republicans will sweep statewide offices.
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Free Bird
TheHawk
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« Reply #6 on: October 27, 2014, 09:57:48 AM »

Rasmussen's final poll in 2010: Buck +4

It's gonna be a close one. Let's see what PPP says here.

Which would mean a Gardner win in this case, anyway
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #7 on: October 27, 2014, 10:02:46 AM »

The real race in Colorado is for governor. Gardner wins this.

Other way around. Hickenlooper seems to be back to safety now.
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backtored
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« Reply #8 on: October 27, 2014, 10:07:02 AM »
« Edited: October 27, 2014, 10:11:12 AM by backtored »

The real race in Colorado is for governor. Gardner wins this.

Other way around. Hickenlooper seems to be back to safety now.

No, he's not. He may win, but it won't be by much.

Gardner, by the way, will win by 4 to 8 points. Whether it is the high end or low end will determine the next governor.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #9 on: October 27, 2014, 10:20:02 AM »

At this point, I want Gardner to lose more than I want Udall to win. I can't stand most of the GOP Senate candidates, they are hacks.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #10 on: October 27, 2014, 10:20:21 AM »

Gardner, by the way, will win by 4 to 8 points. Whether it is the high end or low end will determine the next governor.

Other way around.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #11 on: October 27, 2014, 10:21:20 AM »

I also think this poll is a little off.

Let's see if the Dems are narrowing the mail-voting deficit from -12 to ca. -6 over the next week, which would be in line with 2010.

In 2010 of course, the GOP won numerous statewide offices and 2 seats in the US House.
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JRP1994
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« Reply #12 on: October 27, 2014, 11:10:20 AM »

Ken Buck? Buck. Buck Ken? Ken. Ken Buck. Buck Ken. Ken? Ken.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #13 on: October 27, 2014, 11:11:39 AM »
« Edited: October 27, 2014, 11:13:19 AM by OC »

Marist poll which shows a 1 pt lead is more accurate, mail in ballots tend to be more tilted to Dems.
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backtored
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« Reply #14 on: October 27, 2014, 11:12:44 AM »

Rasmussen's final poll in 2010: Buck +4

It's gonna be a close one. Let's see what PPP says here.

I was pretty sure that Ken Buck wasn't running for Senate this year.
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Anti Democrat Democrat Club
SawxDem
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« Reply #15 on: October 27, 2014, 11:13:20 AM »

Rasmussen's final poll in 2010: Buck +4

It's gonna be a close one. Let's see what PPP says here.

I was pretty sure that Ken Buck wasn't running for Senate this year.

But Ken Buck.
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backtored
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« Reply #16 on: October 27, 2014, 11:14:27 AM »

Marist poll which shows a 1 pt lead is more accurate, mail in ballots.

Marist is more accurate than: CNN, PPP, Fox, USA Today/Suffolk, Survey USA, and Rasmussen? 

By the way, have you noticed how the whole mail in voting thing has been going in Colorado?
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DrScholl
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« Reply #17 on: October 27, 2014, 11:15:14 AM »

We get it blue avatars, you are tired of hearing about Ken Buck. The point is, we have to see if history will repeat itself and ground game proves to make a difference. Democrats call voters and knock on doors, Republicans don't do much of that, some even think it's stupid.
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backtored
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« Reply #18 on: October 27, 2014, 11:19:13 AM »

We get it blue avatars, you are tired of hearing about Ken Buck. The point is, we have to see if history will repeat itself and ground game proves to make a difference. Democrats call voters and knock on doors, Republicans don't do much of that, some even think it's stupid.

Republicans have an 11-point lead in mail-in voting with roughly 1/3 of votes counted. 

As it turns out, ground game does make a big difference.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #19 on: October 27, 2014, 11:23:16 AM »

We get it blue avatars, you are tired of hearing about Ken Buck. The point is, we have to see if history will repeat itself and ground game proves to make a difference. Democrats call voters and knock on doors, Republicans don't do much of that, some even think it's stupid.

Republicans have an 11-point lead in mail-in voting with roughly 1/3 of votes counted. 

As it turns out, ground game does make a big difference.

You need to cite where you get the numbers from, if you just state them, no one knows if they are real or not. As someone who has actually volunteered, I know that a lot of Democrats don't get their ballots out until the last week or so, which is why calling and canvassing makes the difference.
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backtored
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« Reply #20 on: October 27, 2014, 11:28:08 AM »

We get it blue avatars, you are tired of hearing about Ken Buck. The point is, we have to see if history will repeat itself and ground game proves to make a difference. Democrats call voters and knock on doors, Republicans don't do much of that, some even think it's stupid.

Republicans have an 11-point lead in mail-in voting with roughly 1/3 of votes counted. 

As it turns out, ground game does make a big difference.

You need to cite where you get the numbers from, if you just state them, no one knows if they are real or not. As someone who has actually volunteered, I know that a lot of Democrats don't get their ballots out until the last week or so, which is why calling and canvassing makes the difference.

http://content.govdelivery.com/accounts/COSOS/bulletins/d87e80
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Free Bird
TheHawk
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« Reply #21 on: October 27, 2014, 11:38:39 AM »

Ken. Buck. Buck. Buck. Ken
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #22 on: October 27, 2014, 11:40:39 AM »

We get it blue avatars, you are tired of hearing about Ken Buck. The point is, we have to see if history will repeat itself and ground game proves to make a difference. Democrats call voters and knock on doors, Republicans don't do much of that, some even think it's stupid.

Republicans have an 11-point lead in mail-in voting with roughly 1/3 of votes counted. 

As it turns out, ground game does make a big difference.

You need to cite where you get the numbers from, if you just state them, no one knows if they are real or not. As someone who has actually volunteered, I know that a lot of Democrats don't get their ballots out until the last week or so, which is why calling and canvassing makes the difference.

http://content.govdelivery.com/accounts/COSOS/bulletins/d87e80

What you are not mentioning:

A week ago, the mail-in ballots were R+16, now they are R+11.

And there's still a week of peak-returning to go.

The final 2010 margin (when Buck lost by 2) was R+6 with mail-in ballots ...
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Recalcuate
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« Reply #23 on: October 27, 2014, 11:46:19 AM »
« Edited: October 27, 2014, 11:54:16 AM by Recalcuate »

We get it blue avatars, you are tired of hearing about Ken Buck. The point is, we have to see if history will repeat itself and ground game proves to make a difference. Democrats call voters and knock on doors, Republicans don't do much of that, some even think it's stupid.

Republicans have an 11-point lead in mail-in voting with roughly 1/3 of votes counted.  

As it turns out, ground game does make a big difference.

You need to cite where you get the numbers from, if you just state them, no one knows if they are real or not. As someone who has actually volunteered, I know that a lot of Democrats don't get their ballots out until the last week or so, which is why calling and canvassing makes the difference.

http://content.govdelivery.com/accounts/COSOS/bulletins/d87e80

What you are not mentioning:

A week ago, the mail-in ballots were R+16, now they are R+11.

And there's still a week of peak-returning to go.

The final 2010 margin (when Buck lost by 2) was R+6 with mail-in ballots ...

538 answers a bit of this Buck nonsense going on around here.

Even if you assume that there's a Republican bent to the polls, using 2010 as history, Gardner would still be likely ahead. And you have to assume that the pollsters haven't made adjustments off of 2010's alleged "failure."

Plus there was Democrat bias when Udall won last time. And pollsters have a better track record when it comes to mail-in states.

It's clearly Gardner's race to lose at this point. Time is running out for Udall to make much of a charge. (And note, I am taking this non-Rasmussen Rasmussen poll with a grain of salt and looking at all the polls at the end of the day).

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/senate-update-colorado-polling-is-probably-right-udall-is-losing/
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #24 on: October 27, 2014, 11:51:17 AM »

> Rassy
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