YouGov fourth wave polls (user search)
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Author Topic: YouGov fourth wave polls  (Read 3600 times)
Recalcuate
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« on: October 26, 2014, 10:36:05 PM »

Remember that it's the same people being surveyed again. I see GA's margin shrank a point IIRC.

Yeah. A lot of races where there's supposedly been a lot of movement seem to be pretty static though (Kansas, Massachusetts, Illinois, etc.).

I've always assumed based on where the results started in these polls for many that this was an overly-Republican sample and that the minimal movement is because there are going to be relatively few people chip off if that's the case.

OMG muh unskewing!!! ...

But yeah, in reality I never got the virtue of this style of polling. I mean, I'm no fan of lv screens... but how does this method accommodate changes in turnout models-enthusiasm?

It looks like there is a good bit of special sauce added to their polls. If you look at the Alabama link, it seems like they adjust for gender, party affiliation and ideology. Maybe that's based on some sort of modeling as to turnout and enthusiasm.
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