YouGov fourth wave polls
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Author Topic: YouGov fourth wave polls  (Read 3595 times)
Eraserhead
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« Reply #25 on: October 26, 2014, 09:25:06 PM »

These are basically useless.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #26 on: October 26, 2014, 09:48:45 PM »

my only guess of where the hell those HI numbers came from is that they forgot to include Aiona and just polled Ige vs Hannemann
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Miles
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« Reply #27 on: October 26, 2014, 09:54:28 PM »

I'm skeptical Cutler is only at 7%, as I'd expected Michaud to be up more if so.
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TJ in Oregon
TJ in Cleve
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« Reply #28 on: October 26, 2014, 10:24:20 PM »

This is shaping up to be one of the closest elections in the country, though I still think Walker will end up pulling it out. He's led in more polls than Burke has over the last month. Of course they could simply be wrong. There's only one way to find out.

I'd been planning to vote on election day but perhaps I should vote early in case I drop dead between now and next Tuesday and Burke wins by one vote. Tongue
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Vosem
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« Reply #29 on: October 26, 2014, 10:35:20 PM »


Bro! Good to have you back! You should post more often.
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Recalcuate
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« Reply #30 on: October 26, 2014, 10:36:05 PM »

Remember that it's the same people being surveyed again. I see GA's margin shrank a point IIRC.

Yeah. A lot of races where there's supposedly been a lot of movement seem to be pretty static though (Kansas, Massachusetts, Illinois, etc.).

I've always assumed based on where the results started in these polls for many that this was an overly-Republican sample and that the minimal movement is because there are going to be relatively few people chip off if that's the case.

OMG muh unskewing!!! ...

But yeah, in reality I never got the virtue of this style of polling. I mean, I'm no fan of lv screens... but how does this method accommodate changes in turnout models-enthusiasm?

It looks like there is a good bit of special sauce added to their polls. If you look at the Alabama link, it seems like they adjust for gender, party affiliation and ideology. Maybe that's based on some sort of modeling as to turnout and enthusiasm.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #31 on: October 26, 2014, 10:58:45 PM »

I'm skeptical Cutler is only at 7%, as I'd expected Michaud to be up more if so.

If other YouGov polls are anything like the one I took for New York, then they only list the two main candidates and then have an other you can check, where you're prompted to write in what "other" candidate you'll vote for. So the third party vote in these things is depressed considerably because of that.
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #32 on: October 27, 2014, 12:59:24 AM »

This is going to be a fun one.
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user12345
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« Reply #33 on: October 27, 2014, 06:57:52 AM »

This will probably be the race that keeps me up very late on the 4th.
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They put it to a vote and they just kept lying
20RP12
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« Reply #34 on: October 27, 2014, 07:46:03 AM »

This will probably be the race that keeps me up very late on the 4th.

Have alcohol handy.
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They put it to a vote and they just kept lying
20RP12
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« Reply #35 on: October 27, 2014, 07:47:32 AM »

Aren't the undecideds on a lot of these like 20%+? I'm pretty sure that's what I saw on the table of all the polls. If so, those are trash and need to be thrown out.
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Andrew1
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« Reply #36 on: October 27, 2014, 12:01:43 PM »

The Governors numbers are now on their website. MN is Dayton 50-41.

Lol at Governor "Steve Parnell" in AK!
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #37 on: October 27, 2014, 12:39:25 PM »

This should be an exciting night - so many states could go either way.

Maryland is turning into a sleeper race, IMO. Hogan seems to have momentum and the numbers there have been tight for a while. Might be too little, too late, but we will see.
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muon2
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« Reply #38 on: October 27, 2014, 02:02:18 PM »

I'm skeptical Cutler is only at 7%, as I'd expected Michaud to be up more if so.

If other YouGov polls are anything like the one I took for New York, then they only list the two main candidates and then have an other you can check, where you're prompted to write in what "other" candidate you'll vote for. So the third party vote in these things is depressed considerably because of that.

That is true in IL. YouGov did not include Grimm, so it is hard to read the undecided as a true undecided vote.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #39 on: October 28, 2014, 07:21:53 PM »

So... when are you accepting those accolades?
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